NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
Can all the noobs and lurkers stop saying fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you could try attacking my arguments instead of my postcount. Just a thought.

[KingGeedorah]

u know u have KK right?

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The bible says: thou shalt not fold your kingdom preflop, so I insta call even before thinking about his history/range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow you're so right... why should we think about trivial things like history/range when we have 2+2 gospel to play by?

[/ QUOTE ]

So hero has about 5k hands (5k is probably too few FWIW) on villain and the only hands villain has shoved pre-flop are AA and the he is always called every time he has shoved pre-flop? If so, I guess maybe you can argue a fold. If not, you guys are using way too small a sample size to narrow villain's range down to only one holding.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

[ QUOTE ]
Can all the noobs and lurkers stop saying fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you should at least have a reason for calling beyond "call, because that's what we do"

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can all the noobs and lurkers stop saying fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you should at least have a reason for calling beyond "call, because that's what we do"

[/ QUOTE ]

I have spent the last 2 years arguing why you never fold KK for 100 bbs or less. It gets old breaking out the same arguments every 6 weeks. Search function works. there are also a few links in the forum stickies and one of the first SSNL digests I did.

[WillisChan87]

For the ones who says fold. Let's say you fold here. An orbit later, he does the same thing, all-in. You hold KK, do you fold again? Since your idea of him still shouldn't have changed since you've never gotten the chance to see what his hole cards when he open shoved.

[bubaloo]

[ QUOTE ]
have you ever seen him push a hand other than AA? if so, it's a snap call

if not i think it's foldable

[/ QUOTE ]

this is where its at,

if OP has seen how he plays QQ-KK/AK (and he plays them the same) its a snap-call.

but if he has only seen him open shove w/ AA then this is a snap-fold as we can not put any other hands in his open-pushing range.

tbh if he does this with JJ/QQ/KK/AK you probably would have seen it before, as people are more likely to call an open push with an A in their hand (and there are more Ax combinations when he doesnt have AA)

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
So hero has about 5k hands (5k is probably too few FWIW) on villain and the only hands villain has shoved pre-flop are AA and the he is always called every time he has shoved pre-flop? If so, I guess maybe you can argue a fold. If not, you guys are using way too small a sample size to narrow villain's range down to only one holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

We have 5 observations on villain's all-in play, and in all- 5 instances he had AA. This is enough information to conclude the following:

Chance that his range is {JJ+,AK} = 0.000076
Chance that his range is {QQ+,AK} = 0.00017
Chance that his range is {QQ+} = 0.0041
Chance that his range is {KK+} = 0.031

This about this for a second. The chance that he's doing this with any other hand besides AA is 3% or less, based on OP's observations.

The only way we can call here is if we flat out don't believe OP's read, or if we have reason to believe that villain suddenly changed his behavior (I can't see why this would be the case, and no one has provided any reasoning for why it would be).

[bpc009]

[ QUOTE ]
OP is specific in saying the the 5 time the villain has open pushed AA has been with 40BB not 100

Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or he specifically said 40$ which in NL200 is 20bb.

I call... because he's in the SB with all folders. That, despite the 5 for 5 history you remember (which likely is not 100% accurate - our memories never are), opens his range up enough to make this ++EV.

[Logun]

[ QUOTE ]
.. BUT if he is short he always showes AA preflop.. Have seen it at least 5 times..

[/ QUOTE ]

he's not sure this is not always AA