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#41
08-21-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: the Well: Jstill
that questions more than fine of course...
these spots are very tough tbh without more of a read on what ur opponent is likely to do with various holdings vs ur various actions.... Ideally in poker u want very strong reads on ur opponents. In some cases stats can give u a good enough idea to know what to do just based on a broad player profile ie hes super tight passive or super loose aggro, but in many cases players with the same stats will play very different in different spots so its tough to sterotype... I'm definitely not a PT expert, since for probably my half a million plus hands of poker have almost all been on non PT compatible sites wsex and boss pre ban, but assuming a general tag we make a couple assumptions immediately. 1 u gotta know his range roughly... many tags muck 99 when another tag opens in EP in fr, very few muck TT Id say... most probably muck AJs and AQo so now his range is AK and TT+ roughly (if u agree with that assumption what to do is going to be debatable even still becuz he may do different things with different hands). so if u include TT and 99 in his range it will matter if theres a T or 9 on the flop if just TT then a T matters or not on an all undercard board. Basically u assume he c bets AK on the flop becuz most tags do, AK is 16 combos the better PPs are 18 and the worse PP is six unless a T is down in which case TT is 3 more combos that beat u (plus the 1 combo chop which we can ignore more or less Id say for now)... on the flop there will be 8 bets in the pot after his c bet so since we are only a 21:16 dog against his range when a T is down and a 22:18 favorite with no T down theres no way we fold with these pot odds obviously... now again its just gonna come down to assumptions u can do out simulations constantly and u definitely should... u can assume he calls ur cr with AK and probably folds to ur turn bet if he doesnt spike a pair since he ll only be gettin 13:2 with about 4 outs worth of equity vs ur range at best. We could probably also assume hes going to put in more action with better hands since he wont put u on QQ+ having just called the 3bet pre (this is even more true if the flop is low enough he cant put sets in ur range if the board is T98 he may not give more action with QQ or even AA figuring u have only sets or maybe JJ; but on 234 he ll probably always put in more bets vs ur flop cr with QQ+). Then we have to decide whether u can safely fold to further aggression vs this villain if u cr. I tend to say no esp vs a flop 3bet since most players even tags 3bet cr with AK here for cheap showdowns ect, u dont have the read to take a line that involves not showing down vs this villain id say... its way too common they call with sets or big overpairs to raise the turn and 3bet AK now. After we decide what his range is and if u are showdown bound or not (we ll say u are whether u cr the flop or ck call). Its pretty easy to do out the simulation of the EV of the two lines vs his range based on what we expect him to do with each hand (be it put in more action on this board with an overpair or calldown AK til the river ( which I dont usually assume of tags). Typically here Id ck call the flop and play some poker probably bailing if the flop is Txy and the turns an A or K. It helps to know if villain cks behind underpairs when an A or K flop though or if he bets and cks the river or bets both streets. These are things youd ideally like to know and need to make notes of. I just dont think we have the value vs his range to cr the flop even when no T is down and we are a slight favorite (22:18) becuz TT callsdown and AA-QQ charge us more bets... though the value in giving freecards to AK comes into question... with six outs in a pot this size it is worriesome to let the six outter get 2 cards when we could give them one less (since that extra sb investment prevents almost a BB worth of equity from seeing the river). I havent done this problem out expressly but u can do out the simulation and see how it plays out when u cr or ck call after weve made the above assumptions about what he ll do... Really u should play with these assumptions and adjust them and see when it changes from taking one line to the other... thats the key in learning from sims. On the turn they ll be 5.5 bbs in the pot after his bet so if we are still ahead of his range by the inverse of the pot size that plays this way we must call... if uve seen him double barrell AK here to charge AQ and maybe fold out low PPs its a must call. If he ll ck AK and a T is down its a fold since u only chop with 1 combo in his range. When no T is down and he ll ck AK usually we are a 18:6 dog combo wise but we have the pot odds to call with our equity vs that range (so if he ll ever bet AK its just even more of a call). If a T is down ur behind to 21 combos so hell need to bet AK the ratio of x/16 times that makes us less than a 1/5.5 dog vs his range. Its nice to look at that just becuz if it comes back he needs to double barrel AK like never u can call, if it comes back he needs to play AK this way half the time u have it u can probably fold. Its all just logic, but its tricky and what people struggle with in poker since occasionally they set it up wrong (u have to set it up the right way and no which result allows u to make an inference). This idea comes from statistics, not failing to reject the null hypothesis doesnt make it true. And when you are trying to find out what the correct action is u should set up the parameters and variables to be less likely (if anything) than u actually believe them to be for what ur hypothesis is... ie if ur saying we should call or fold u should make villains range tighter and if its still a call vs a tighter range u can say its a call becuz his range maybe even looser at times due to random bluffs. Its the transitive property. Meanwhile if it comes back as a fold but u think ur assumption was a bit too tight on villains range u shoudl find the value where hes playing a worse hand enough that it reaches the breakeven point and then decide whether that assumption (hes playing a worse hand this way that often) looks reasonable or not. On the river, assuming turn and river blanks and no T down getting 7.5:1 we ll have to pay off becuz TT or JJ will vb even if we think he never plays AK this way and AQ and 99 arent in his preflop range Pokers really only about 2 things 1) reads... reads are what u use to make assumptions u need to apply the math and 2) the math which determines the correct action which is based on our assumptions consistently getting the assumptions wrong means a fields medal winner will not be able to use math to win (aka he cant read hands or pick up on player tendencies).... getting the assumptions right and having no clue how to apply the math or count combos or figure out equity vs the range uve assumed (and even beyond that doing the simulations to figure out which line is mroe EV based on his range and what we expect him to do with those hands) will have u stabbing in the dark. Though from simple intuition u may get it right somewhat consistently.... being able to do both is when u can really profit. hope that was helpful let me know if it was... 
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#42
08-21-2007, 06:36 PM
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Re: the Well: Jstill
basically that last response I was saying first u make an assumption of their preflop range... here I said for a tag in EP vs another tags EP open its probably like TT+ and AK but if u assume 99+ AQs and AK u can do the same thing.
after that I typically assume cr'ing or donking is an inferior line to ck calling down (cuz Ive done these problems before). Becuz our equity vs that range wont be very good, and better hands will charge us more (esp on low boards since sets wont be in ur range and u didnt cap pre so QQ KK and AA wont be), and I dont know villain well enough to take a donk or cr and then not showdown line. Really though you cant do out the EV calculations of each line explicitly unless your willing to make further assumptions about what villain will do with each holding vs each line (which u cant with no read but its still worth doing it out to see how it changes as u change the assumptions). This is why reads are so important... I go into depth about how those reads will effect the calculations and what assumptions you need to make to run the simulation in the above and in future hands. Once I decide I'm in the ck calling camp its very easy to calculate ur equity vs his range on various boards, and decide whether u should call or fold. Typically if a T is down that hurts u alot obviously, so u peel the flop and fold the turn typically becuz they arent betting AK UI enough on the turn to justify a call, or if an A or K hit on a latter street that makes it easier u can usually fold as TT wont vb and u no longer beat those 16 combos of AK. U kinda have to decide whether AK double barrels but if u can call against the range that doesnt double barrel AK profitably (becuz no T is down and ur getting good pot odds 5.5:1) then u dont even have to worry about that. Always start out seeing if a raise or call is good vs a tighter range cuz then u know its correct vs a wider range (theres kind of an exception to this in NL I wont cite). On the river his range will usually be the same as if he bet the turn so if u still beat TT and u think he ll vb that, u have to call getting 7.5:1 with that and the one combo u chop vs (most players will bet TT JJ after u just ck call 3 streets, just becuz when u dont cap pre or cr the flop they dont put u on QQ+ and obviously not a set).
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#43
08-21-2007, 06:59 PM
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Re: the Well: Jstill
Hi jstill. Thanks for doing this.
How often do you play poker? What was the longest single session you have played? What is the largest pot you have ever won? What are the biggest BB downswings you have had at a couple limits? How did you feel about them? What do you think are optimal default stats in HUHU games in today's climate? WITHEG recommends default open-raising from the button with a certain 41% of hands (22+, A2s+, A3o+, K2s+, K9o+, Q5s+, Q9o+, J7s+, J9o+, T8s+, T8o+, 97s+, 98o+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s+) in full to 3 handed games. What do you think of this? What to you think is the greatest piece of music of all time? Who is your favourite intellectual figure of all time? What is your favourite pizza topping? If you could be any other person in the world, who would it be? You are hosting a limit hold 'em home game. You may pick the number of seats and the stakes. You can choose to invite absolutely any person ever living or deceased and they will accept. Who do you invite and what stakes will you play?
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#45
08-21-2007, 07:11 PM
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Re: the Well: Jstill
Extremely important questions, all.
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#47
08-21-2007, 07:26 PM
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Re: the Well: Jstill
Absolutely brilliant !
I decided that I would not respond to posts after I came home after a few beers. But, this is too good to not respond and say Thankyou for 2 excellent posts ! [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
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#49
08-21-2007, 07:50 PM
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Re: the Well: Jstill
jstill,
SO you went to school w/ Kyro? Can't you find a girl for his sorry azz? What do you feel is the strongest part of your game? The weakest? The part you have the hardest time working on? For the above, why is it so difficult. 2 years ago, where did you see yourself compared to where you really are? Where do you see yourself in 3 years from now? What playing tendencies of regular 2p2ers are the easiest to exploit and why? What made inferno so tough to play? His uber-aggression? What limits are you typically playing for LHE and NL?
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#50
08-21-2007, 07:59 PM
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Re: the Well: Jstill
good questions Allday... Ive only ever played HU back when I used to start tables early in the morning on Boss Media, it was my least favorite part of the day and I didnt use PT so I cant comment on that question but...
How often do you play poker? If I dont play one day its the exception... I like to play a few hours each day and occasionally put in a big day or miss a day or two. Vacations [censored] this up though and I go on a roadtrip like every other month atleast. This Spring was the first time in almost a year I had gone longer than like 3 days without playing though I usually find a laptop even if I'm done on vaca with friends. I only play total about 20-25 hrs per week now but played like 50 when I started out. I play less when its nice out obviously and I wish I played more on nights/weekends but I dont cuz thats when everyone with real jobs isnt working so I want to go out and theyd never let me stay in. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] What was the longest single session you have played? When I first started online Id play at work almost 9-5 with a few breaks and then go home (sometimes get high) and play most the rest of the night. I dont recommend playing high fwiw... but I was only 3 or 4 tabling and the site was slow. My longest sessions hand wise have probably been the days Ive busted out like 5k hands in 4.5-5 hrs playing NL and they were all within the last few weeks... weird. Pretty regularly in college though we'd play from like six at night til six in the morning or later. What is the largest pot you have ever won? at 15/30 limit I won a pot for 620 and lost a pot that was about the same... I havent played that high though since I stopped having another job, a few times at 10/20 I got a pot that was 450 a few times and lost similar sized ones but most of my hands on wsex were at 5/T or 3/6 and the avg pot size was only like 10bbs on good days (I tried not to play if it wasnt, but usually did anyways). My largest NL pot recently so far since making the switch was when I was 2 BIs deep at NL100, so 400 total though I think last year messing around at NL200 I won a pot that was a little over 500. What are the biggest BB downswings you have had at a couple limits? How did you feel about them? I had a 600bb downswing and have had 100 bb downswings in a day throughout my whole career once or twice a month anyways (since I was playing alot when I started). At wsex my whole career was a "downswing" since I was losing like .5bb/100 but really that amounts to a winrate (when it was 100% rb) of like 2.5 bb/100 so the downswings werent that brutal. Downswings are never fun you always question your ability during them even from day to day. WITHEG recommends default open-raising from the button with a certain 41% of hands (22+, A2s+, A3o+, K2s+, K9o+, Q5s+, Q9o+, J7s+, J9o+, T8s+, T8o+, 97s+, 98o+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s+) in full to 3 handed games. What do you think of this? I always raised A2o but the Q5s werent in my range til Q8 and K2s I didnt steal those low suited Ks without a read that the blinds didnt defend enough. I used to steal 76o as well and 43s with a read but Im sure stox's knows what hes talking about so Id use his range now over my own probably when I play. I think its interesting though to think of it this way... it really doesnt matter whether an open is profitable or not, sometimes its better to expand ur range and include some slightly negative (and definitely the neutral EV) hands even if it adds some variance as long as doing so increases ur winrate. Thats what truly matters in deciding opening ranges though, This is why guys like s915 and toomuchaction can win defying logical reason despite playing so many hands we all consider -EV in a vacuum. However, its harder to differentiate that than take a sample and see which hands are profitable which is why most people oversimplify in that manner. Dont forget though most of the samples we base this on in our DBs are way too small, u need 50k occurances of any one hand from any one spot before u know if its profitable then and changing table dynamics can alter this. What to you think is the greatest piece of music of all time? Thats so tough I like so many songs. I have a bad habit of finding a couple new songs I like every other week and listening to them non stop til I ruin them for myself for atleast a little while. Right now its a few songs by assembly of dust (seeing them in concert Thursday), unwritten law, incubus, and roots down below. I just killed Reel Big Fishs and John Butlers new albums for myself lol. My favorite bands overall though are probably Led Zep, pearl jam, OAR, 311 and Moe. I think Pink Floydd or Hendrix could probably be said to have made the greatest single piece of music/ album or been among the most innovative for their time or any time (excluding perhaps the Beatles and Dylan). I recently went to the Gathering of the Vibes festival which is in honor of Jerry Garcias death... lots of great dead covers who I love, but I htink George Clinton (seeing him in concert again in September) and Deep Banana Blackout did the best sets (though I dont love listening to DBB normally).. though that was the first nights late night set so its also when I was the most out of it probably lol Who is your favourite intellectual figure of all time? I always liked Einstein as a kid but who didnt. The way he revolutionized his field and his mind exercises are all pretty cool though. Nowadays Id probably go with Da vinci though for the answer to this question. What is your favourite pizza topping? Pepperonis too easy even though its what I eat the most. I ll say barbecue or buffalo chicken. I pretty much live off pizza though Ive been trying to less... its hard. If you could be any other person in the world, who would it be? CTS Durr.. someone who is sick at poker and doesnt have to think about money ever (though Im guessing the high stacks guys suffer just as much stress in the swings as smaller stakes players if not moreso?). Though I do know Im really not cut out to be a professional gambler the rest of my life. I have a good disposition for it but I just know I enjoy the game more (and probably woudl actually play as much if not more) once I have a real job. I just dont like how my short term results have such an impact on my mood day to day. Other than that it'd be cool to be a rock star or in a band obviously, or be some professional athlete, in either soccer or basketball Id chose, probably that order. You are hosting a limit hold 'em home game. You may pick the number of seats and the stakes. You can choose to invite absolutely any person ever living or deceased and they will accept. Who do you invite and what stakes will you play? 10 handeds too boring though fine online multi tabling, Id play 5 or six handed my results were always a bit worse super short as I was a bit too tight. Id invite noone of note as anyone of note is probably good enough to not be the best option. A couple of rich businessman or celebs who have never played the game and love to gamble it up sound good, throw a couple hot bitties in their for eye candy Paris Hilton, her sister and Lindsey Lohan. They probably like to donk it up and play every hand all the way, and we know they love to party. On my current BR even in a very soft game though Id still only play 10/20 or lower. Im pretty risk averse and not much of a gambler at heart truthfully, I never play other casino games just cuz I know its losing money theoretically each time I play, and even in poker losing money live just feels different to me than online.
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