Teach me to play craps

[Homer]

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So seriously. What is your normal stategy when playing. Pass line w/some odds behind. then take 6&8? Howe does this stategy sound?

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That's how I normally play. I may get flamed because yes I know the dice have no memory, but be patient the game can be quite swingy. Look for momentum and take winnings to increase the money on the table. A hot streak should end with you having a fair amount of $$$ on the table. This is where money management comes in. I make sure I'm taking profits off the table but also increasing my bets slowly.

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lol

[bluesbassman]

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If you want to maximize the probability you will (approximately) double your money, you should place your entire roll for the session on one pass line bet + full odds (or come, or don't pass, etc). Of course if you lose that bet, you are busto.

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This never made any sense to me -- placing a case bet in a craps game. First off -- you might as well ignore odds, otherwise you have to place only a portion of your BR on the line. What portion? If you're betting only a portion of your roll -- it's not a case bet.

Here's how I see front line craps. On the come out roll -- there's a 1 out of 3 chance there will be a decision. If there is a decision -- there's a 2:1 chance I win. If there's no decision -- I'm at a disadvantage. Does that sound like a good place to put a case bet?

On the back line there's the same 1 out of 3 chance for a decision that's 2:1 against me -- but if there's no decision I get the advantage.

In either case -- the craps table is a lousy place for a case bet. If you're on the front -- you're might have to watch a 45 minute million dollar hand waiting for your 4 to repeat (or not). If you're on the back -- you're going to watch the shooter load the 5 points you don't own before he sevens or knocks you off the one point you own.

Save yourself the agony -- case bets belong on baccarat.

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I honestly how no idea what you are talking about. Nor do I know what is a "case bet."

My point is mathematically true for any -EV game. Suppose, for example, there is a game which pays the player even money for which he has a probability, P, to win each wager, where 0 < P < 1/2. If the player is willing to risk a finite amount M on the game, then to maximize the probability he will obtain 2M, he should wager the entire amount M on one single bet (if allowed).

In this case, the probability his roll will reach 2M is obviously exactly P. If instead he makes multiple smaller bets than M, the probability his roll will reach 2M will be less than P. This is independent of the particular game.

[PhilHelmet]

"For your arguement to be true there would have to be even money on the pass and don't. "
(nice spelling)

OK, I'm going to try again, and then go then I will let you continue with your thinking. .

By giving or laying odds, it is an even money proposition.

If the point is a 6, Pass will take odds, $5 will pay you $6. On the Don't side, you lay odds, $6 will win you $5. They are taking action on both sides of the outcome, and paying accordingly against the true odds of the event happening. . The casino edge on pass and don't pass is almost identical at ~1.4%. That is even.

[Jimbo]

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What I was referring to is a history of playing craps for 22 years. Roughly the first 11 years on Pass, and the last 11 years on Don't pass. My experience is, you will make more money ("in the long run", e.g. many years) with Don't pass.


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If I had only been plying craps for 22 years I wouldn't even post here, I would rely on players with much more experience.

Next I can't believe you state you understand the odds are nearly identical yet expect someone else to rely on your personal experience as to which side is more profitable.

All i can say is, LOL!!

Jimbo

[SheetWise]

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bluesbassman: If you want to maximize the probability you will (approximately) double your money, you should place your entire roll for the session on one pass line bet + full odds (or come, or don't pass, etc).

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SheetWise: This never made any sense to me -- placing a case bet in a craps game. First off -- you might as well ignore odds, otherwise you have to place only a portion of your BR on the line.

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bluesbassman: I honestly how no idea what you are talking about. Nor do I know what is a "case bet."

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Maybe you don't know how to play craps either. You're talking about placing your entire "roll" on a single pass line bet. That would be known as a "case" bet -- the last one. The only one remaining, in gaming lingo. Then you talk about buying odds. How do you do that, when you just bet your entire "roll" on the line? Or, did you mean to buy the point after it's established? That would be called a place bet.

So, the best you can hope for betting your entire "roll" on a single line bet in craps is -.0136 by taking the back.

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SheetWise: In either case -- the craps table is a lousy place for a case bet. If you're on the front -- you're might have to watch a 45 minute million dollar hand waiting for your 4 to repeat (or not). If you're on the back -- you're going to watch the shooter load the 5 points you don't own before he sevens or knocks you off the one point you own.

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What that means is that it could take a while to find out whether you win or lose. Since you have no additional wagers to make -- this is wasted time.

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SheetWise: Save yourself the agony -- case bets belong on baccarat.

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This comment was in response to your original advice that players should bet their entire "roll" on the pass line. As stated earlier, the best odds they could get on craps is -.0136 betting the back -- on baccarat they could get -.0106 betting the bank. As an added bonus, every trial results in a decision.

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bluesbassman: My point is mathematically true for any -EV game. Suppose, for example, there is a game which pays the player even money for which he has a probability, P, to win each wager, where 0 < P < 1/2. If the player is willing to risk a finite amount M on the game, then to maximize the probability he will obtain 2M, he should wager the entire amount M on one single bet (if allowed).

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It is not allowed if you want the line plus odds. That would be a place bet, and the best you could do is -.0152. But, your premise is still flawed ...

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bluesbassman: In this case, the probability his roll will reach 2M is obviously exactly P. If instead he makes multiple smaller bets than M, the probability his roll will reach 2M will be less than P. This is independent of the particular game.

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Many people will disagree with your premise if, for example, the game being played is roulette. I know pzhon disagreed with me when I once made a similar claim [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[bluesbassman]

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bluesbassman: If you want to maximize the probability you will (approximately) double your money, you should place your entire roll for the session on one pass line bet + full odds (or come, or don't pass, etc).

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SheetWise: This never made any sense to me -- placing a case bet in a craps game. First off -- you might as well ignore odds, otherwise you have to place only a portion of your BR on the line.

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bluesbassman: I honestly how no idea what you are talking about. Nor do I know what is a "case bet."

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Maybe you don't know how to play craps either.

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I've played craps way too much, the first time occurring at the old Horseshoe in 1989.

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You're talking about placing your entire "roll" on a single pass line bet. That would be known as a "case" bet -- the last one. The only one remaining, in gaming lingo. Then you talk about buying odds. How do you do that, when you just bet your entire "roll" on the line? Or, did you mean to buy the point after it's established? That would be called a place bet.

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You completely missed my point. Yes, I'm aware that in craps, you can't know in advance whether a point will be established on a come out roll. My point is that if you want to maximize the probability of doubling your bankroll (or more), you will want to minimize the number of wagers. Thus, in the game of craps, you will want to make one of the following two bets:

1) Bet your entire roll on the pass line (or don't pass).

2) Bet an amount on the pass line such that when you take full odds, the sum (pass line + odds) is your entire roll. (Or don't pass + laying odds.)

I'm not sure which of these options maximizes your chance of (at least) doubling your roll without doing the calculation. Option 1) has a lower EV, but option 2) risks having to make multiple bets.

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This comment was in response to your original advice that players should bet their entire "roll" on the pass line. As stated earlier, the best odds they could get on craps is -.0136 betting the back -- on baccarat they could get -.0106 betting the bank. As an added bonus, every trial results in a decision.

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This is true but irrelevant to my original point: that there is a trade-off between maximizing the probability you will double your roll, and minimizing the probability of going broke.

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It is not allowed if you want the line plus odds. That would be a place bet, and the best you could do is -.0152. But, your premise is still flawed ...

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By "not allowed" I was talking about house limits. I have no idea what "premise" of mine is flawed.

[GSykes]

a natural born shooter always bets don't pass

[SheetWise]

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My point is that if you want to maximize the probability of doubling your bankroll (or more), you will want to minimize the number of wagers.

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(Better expectation is) irrelevant to my original point: that there is a trade-off between maximizing the probability you will double your roll, and minimizing the probability of going broke.

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Are you saying that your original premise was to inform us that increasing your probability of success will decrease your probability of failure? Can I freely quote you on that, or does it require permission?

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I have no idea what "premise" of mine is flawed.

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It's somewhat subtle -- I've found a link from the archives where I made the mistake of reasoning similarly -- and was corrected.

[CORed]

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Simple, you'll go broke slowest taking full odds on pass/don't come/don't.
enjoy

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Not really. The odds bet has 0 EV. You will in theory go broke at the same rate whether you make it or not. However, the odds be increases your variance. Since craps is a -EV game, a case can be made that increasing your variance is a good thing, since variance is the only thing that gives you a chance to come out ahead.