The River Donkbet

[Beachman42]

You know, the more I look at this line, I think villian played it well TO the riv if his read on Hero was (TAG - very aggro when flop hits, etc.) I still don't see the sense in the riv donk bet, but maybe it was solely for confusion. He only fears KK at that point. If villian pushes the riv, I'm not sure Hero calls.

[seke2]

I think we disagree that this is a clearly +EV situation to bet the river. I don't think it is, or I'd be advocating a bet. Or at least, I don't think it's significantly +EV. I'd be willing to pass up what I perceive as a very slightly +EV situation at best to value bet here in exchange for retaining the chips I have for future use. It's almost like passing up a coinflip even when you know you're probably a slight favorite. I'm a believer that you sometimes can pass up a very slightly +EV situation in exchange for having chips to take advantage of more clearly +EV situations later.

[Ansky]

Huh? You are making the assumption that we are guarenteed this pot if we check? If we bet and lose, we still would have lost the pot if we checked.

FWIW, this is KJ more often than it is QQ. This is a bizarre result.

[seke2]

No, I'm not assuming we're guaranteed the pot if we check/call the donkbet. But you're telling me it's +EV to value bet. I don't think it is. I don't think we're betting for value because I don't think it's clear enough that we're ahead. We aren't making a blocking bet, Villain already basically did that and we can call it cheaply for a showdown if we want. We aren't going to bluff him off any hand beating us, so we aren't trying to push him off his hand.

But I also don't think Villain is laying down any hand we beat to a value bet. So I wouldn't have value bet here if Villain had checked, as I've said a few times in this thread.

And since I don't want to value bet this river because I don't think it's clear enough that we're ahead and I don't think Villain will lay down any hands that are beating our TPTK, the only thing I can see betting doing is giving Villain a chance to continue his weird line and reraise us if he's been slowplaying a monster all the way.

[Ansky]

Villain will be getting 3-1 on our push. He is calling with any queen and any king (both of which are his most likely holdings).

WTF do you think we are behind to here? You think he limp called with QQ/KK (ok he did, but that is incredibly weird.)

We have a half pot bet left on the river. Every hand that is not a draw that has called us down with call this bet. It is that simple. If you aren't value pushing here, you are leaving money on the table.

[seke2]

I think I'm behind a lot of slowplayed hands, and check/calling two big bets makes me worry about that. I agree, this is probably KJ more often than it's KQ, which is what I thought was one of Villain's most likely holdings. QQ surprised me, but I could see KK played like this. I've limped KK from EP and then just called a LP raise once I was pretty sure I'd be going to flop heads up with the intent of slowplaying and kicking myself if an A flopped. Now, I haven't limped KK behind another limper very often, but I could see a tricky/bad player doing that if your table right for it.

What else is Villain check/calling with on the flop and turn? Maybe AJ or JT. But I don't think he's making this stupid blocking bet with either of those hands, and wouldn't call a push with either of them very often, if ever. Maybe AJ on the off chance that Hero has AT. I think you're going to see a slowplayed KQ often enough to not bet here. And I really don't think you're leaving chips on the table by not value pushing here. I think Villain raises at some point with AK too, by the way, so I don't think he has another AK very often.

Anyway, I think Villain will call a push with AK, KQ, KJ, and a slight chance of KT here. There's also a slight chance he's slowplaying a flopped set or turned/rivered a set. You are chopping against 1 hand, going broke against 1, and you get value against 1. The times he'll actually call a push with KT or worse make up for the bizarre times he has a set.

Maybe my range for Villain is too tight, but I don't see that as a hugely +EV range to push against. What else should be in Villain's push-calling range here?

[Beachman42]

I think the OP left reads out on purpose. The prevalent assumption here was a donk (the title). The turn call is a big red flag that got forgotten when he donk bet the riv. This looks like a Steelers "gadget play" to me.

[Ansky]

Range that we beat (that will ALWAYS call a push.):

Q8, Q9, QT, QJ, AQ, K9, KT, KJ,

Range that we are losing to:
QQ, KK, AA, 22, 77, 66, KQ.

You may pokerstove it at will.

BTW If we had something like 2x the pot at the end this would be a different story, but the fact that we have only a half pot bet makes this all the more easy to value push.

[seke2]

I really, really don't think Q8-QJ call a push. Taking those out makes a big difference.

I suppose AQ might. K9, ok, maybe.

[Ansky]

You are correct. I don't know why, but I just assumed that it was a 5 dollar tournament or something.

If they got to the river they are calling the push for sure though. Donkeys do not call down with middle pair and then fold the river getting 3-1.