|
|
#41
08-05-2007, 08:37 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove gives equal weight to whatever hands you put in...and there is no way that AK is as likely as AA/KK given the action. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you think this? Do you have some sort of read on this player who plays almost 30% of his hands? 
|
|
#42
08-05-2007, 08:43 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
If he had KK or AA he played pretty weird, first check behind on that board and then raise huge? I don't know sometimes im going with it and sometimes I make sick laydown, pretty much based on any other information I might receive, timing tells and so on.
|
|
#43
08-05-2007, 09:23 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
I've not done the exact math here, but it looks like we're getting about 1.2:1 on the money, so we'd need to be upper 40% equity.
We have 6 combos where we're like 5%. If we took all 12 combos of AK, we're 82% against those...outside of teh AKs clubs. So, we'd have to cut the liklihood of AK in half and throw out any other hand that he's just gotten out of hand with or something like AQs clubs or whatever. Idk...that's doing a lot wihtout a specific read...but whatever. Edit: Ah. I thought villain had went all in for some reason here...having what he has behind does change things here. Hm. I've not idea what's best here.
|
|
#44
08-05-2007, 10:00 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Pokerstove gives equal weight to whatever hands you put in...and there is no way that AK is as likely as AA/KK given the action. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you think this? Do you have some sort of read on this player who plays almost 30% of his hands? [/ QUOTE ] No, of course not. Between all of us, though, we have millions of hands on similar players, and we can make assumptions based on this. [ QUOTE ] I've not done the exact math here, but it looks like we're getting about 1.2:1 on the money, so we'd need to be upper 40% equity. We have 6 combos where we're like 5%. If we took all 12 combos of AK, we're 82% against those...outside of teh AKs clubs. [/ QUOTE ] There are nine combos of AK. Just to think about it logically - our entire equity comes from AK (practically). If we are 51% or whatever using pokerstove, then we only have to remove like one combo to get us below the required odds.
|
|
#45
08-05-2007, 08:02 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
IMO this guy has AA for real like 60% of the time, and KK another 15%, i'm kind of surprised there's even this much discussion. I have been accused of being a nit, but i instafold.
|
|
#46
08-05-2007, 10:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
if you're not felting this flop (which i agree with most that this is a fold) then you shouldn't be calling PF in the first place.
|
|
#48
08-05-2007, 10:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
[ QUOTE ]
if you're not felting this flop (which i agree with most that this is a fold) then you shouldn't be calling PF in the first place. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, that makes no sense. If the flop comes Q-4-2, it's happy time.
|
|
#49
08-05-2007, 11:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
Did he do the super-wait then raise the turn? If he did the super-wait then this is AA like 99%.
|
|
#50
08-06-2007, 03:59 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????
[ QUOTE ]
if you're not felting this flop (which i agree with most that this is a fold) then you shouldn't be calling PF in the first place. [/ QUOTE ] I've some doubt that you're really a 5+ptbb winner at nl200. Or maybe, you just can't read well.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
