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#41
07-18-2007, 02:23 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] As pineapple says, I expected the early open from Kravchenko to be tight enough that I didn't think that 33's equity was going to be that great. [/ QUOTE ] I would think a good shortstack player should have a relatively wide range there. any pair, most hands with 2 face cards, some high suited connectors. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, here's a range which captures a lot of that. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 3,071,873,376 games 0.032 secs 95,996,043,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 45.315% 44.71% 00.60% 1373553804 18464646.00 { 33 } Hand 1: 54.685% 54.08% 00.60% 1661390280 18464646.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A5o+, KTo+, QJo } 45.3% equity does not thrillify me down to my delicatesticles in that spot. From what people have said earlier in the thread, it's probably slightly chip EV at that point. But this neglects that Rahme will occasionally have a huge hand and will call; I don't think you have to remove too many of the non-pair hands from his range to make this pretty uncomfortable; and with the BB having a pretty decent chance of calling, Khan is likely to gain some equity from that clash as well. I will say that after looking at it more carefully the shove is not as bad as I thought, but I wouldn't have made it myself. [/ QUOTE ] Once you count the first place overlay, I now think it's very close. The better a player you are, the more you should lean towards a fold. 
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#42
07-18-2007, 02:28 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
Khan needs 44.18% pot equity to make this play break even. That's using ICM to model prize pool equity and also assuming Rahme never overcalls. I got Khan's folding $EV by assuming a pushing range of {22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo} for Kravchenko and a calling range of {TT+,AQs+,AKo} (4.08% given Khan has 33 and not accounting for Kravchenko's range) for Rahme if Kahn folds. I doubt Rahme's calling range matters that much since he's tight enough to almost never call there anyway.
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#43
07-18-2007, 02:29 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If Rahme really had AQ, how did he stop the blood from spurting out of his eyes? [/ QUOTE ] He was ridiculously tight for most of the FT. He probably would have folded AK here too. [/ QUOTE ] Is it correct to fold AQ or AK there? Not berating his play, just curious to what you guys think. [/ QUOTE ] I definitely would have folded AQ there, but AK is a really really hard choice. Two allins, you figure either: (a) both guys have pairs or (b) both guys have big broadway cards or (c) one guy has a pair, the other has big cards you're only a big dog if one of the guys has AA or KK, but you're probably not a favorite to win against 2 allins, unless it's AQ and AJ. Then again, you have the chance to triple up or so. I don't know, maybe some of the odds gurus can take a shot at it. I'd probably fold AK here.
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#44
07-18-2007, 02:32 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If Rahme really had AQ, how did he stop the blood from spurting out of his eyes? [/ QUOTE ] He was ridiculously tight for most of the FT. He probably would have folded AK here too. [/ QUOTE ] Is it correct to fold AQ or AK there? Not berating his play, just curious to what you guys think. [/ QUOTE ] I definitely would have folded AQ there, but AK is a really really hard choice. Two allins, you figure either: (a) both guys have pairs or (b) both guys have big broadway cards or (c) one guy has a pair, the other has big cards you're only a big dog if one of the guys has AA or KK, but you're probably not a favorite to win against 2 allins, unless it's AQ and AJ. Then again, you have the chance to triple up or so. I don't know, maybe some of the odds gurus can take a shot at it. I'd probably fold AK here. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it's not quite a tripleup because Khan has about 60% the stack of Rahme, while Kravchenko has about 20% the stack of Rahme. Wasn't there some Bill Gazes hand something like AK vs. JJ vs. TT where he was fine with AK since he had to hit an A or K anyway?
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#45
07-18-2007, 02:40 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If Rahme really had AQ, how did he stop the blood from spurting out of his eyes? [/ QUOTE ] He was ridiculously tight for most of the FT. He probably would have folded AK here too. [/ QUOTE ] Is it correct to fold AQ or AK there? Not berating his play, just curious to what you guys think. [/ QUOTE ] I definitely would have folded AQ there, but AK is a really really hard choice. Two allins, you figure either: (a) both guys have pairs or (b) both guys have big broadway cards or (c) one guy has a pair, the other has big cards you're only a big dog if one of the guys has AA or KK, but you're probably not a favorite to win against 2 allins, unless it's AQ and AJ. Then again, you have the chance to triple up or so. I don't know, maybe some of the odds gurus can take a shot at it. I'd probably fold AK here. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it's not quite a tripleup because Khan has about 60% the stack of Rahme, while Kravchenko has about 20% the stack of Rahme. Wasn't there some Bill Gazes hand something like AK vs. JJ vs. TT where he was fine with AK since he had to hit an A or K anyway? [/ QUOTE ] cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Kd 492990 35.96 873540 63.73 4224 0.31 0.361 Ts Th 249207 18.18 1117323 81.51 4224 0.31 0.183 Jc Jd 624333 45.55 742197 54.15 4224 0.31 0.456 so throw in 2 underpairs vs AK, and your EV goes from 46ish to 36ish
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#47
07-18-2007, 03:27 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The $10M win bonus was only for Lee W. [/ QUOTE ] IIRC there's a 1 mil bonus for the stars players. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, of which Khan was one. I think there was a 2nd and 3rd bonus too of something less, but forget details.
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#48
07-18-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If Rahme really had AQ, how did he stop the blood from spurting out of his eyes? [/ QUOTE ] He was ridiculously tight for most of the FT. He probably would have folded AK here too. [/ QUOTE ] Is it correct to fold AQ or AK there? Not berating his play, just curious to what you guys think. [/ QUOTE ] I definitely would have folded AQ there, but AK is a really really hard choice. Two allins, you figure either: (a) both guys have pairs or (b) both guys have big broadway cards or (c) one guy has a pair, the other has big cards you're only a big dog if one of the guys has AA or KK, but you're probably not a favorite to win against 2 allins, unless it's AQ and AJ. Then again, you have the chance to triple up or so. I don't know, maybe some of the odds gurus can take a shot at it. I'd probably fold AK here. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it's not quite a tripleup because Khan has about 60% the stack of Rahme, while Kravchenko has about 20% the stack of Rahme. Wasn't there some Bill Gazes hand something like AK vs. JJ vs. TT where he was fine with AK since he had to hit an A or K anyway? [/ QUOTE ] cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Kd 492990 35.96 873540 63.73 4224 0.31 0.361 Ts Th 249207 18.18 1117323 81.51 4224 0.31 0.183 Jc Jd 624333 45.55 742197 54.15 4224 0.31 0.456 so throw in 2 underpairs vs AK, and your EV goes from 46ish to 36ish [/ QUOTE ] Sure, but putting in T1,000,000 to win T3,000,000 and you have 36% equity is better than T1,000,000 to win T2,000,000 and you have 46% equity [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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