Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You said you would have taken some other preflop/flop combination, but hate open shoving. Could you describe in more detail what exactly you would do in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

vs this opponent, limp/RR (and then c/f here), raise/call or raise/fold [if he shoves a big range obviously this isn't an option] are probably all better than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which one would you do?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think people grossly overestimate the difference between cEV and $EV late in MTTs, especially online MTTs. The difference between 10th and 9th is miniscule, irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

nobody cares about 10th vs. 9th. it's the difference between shorthanded and FR play, which is about to start, that should be intuitive here. how many more actual hands does your M translate to one person from now?

if that doesn't work, this should: your unexploitable shove which wins 3/4 BB on avg (I'll take your word for it but it sounds right) very, very clearly makes all of the people below you money. not 'miniscule' money, but a lot of money, because when you're called and lose, the guy in 8'th can now be much more patient when waiting for hands [keeping in mind one double up probably makes him average.] where does this money come from? well, it's not from the big stack that calls your shove, that's for sure.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You said you would have taken some other preflop/flop combination, but hate open shoving. Could you describe in more detail what exactly you would do in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

vs this opponent, limp/RR (and then c/f here), raise/call or raise/fold [if he shoves a big range obviously this isn't an option] are probably all better than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which one would you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

vs someone consciously trying to abuse the bubble, limp/RR all day. unless he raises 4x obv, then he has AQ. lol.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think people grossly overestimate the difference between cEV and $EV late in MTTs, especially online MTTs. The difference between 10th and 9th is miniscule, irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

nobody cares about 10th vs. 9th. it's the difference between shorthanded and FR play, which is about to start, that should be intuitive here. how many more actual hands does your M translate to one person from now?

if that doesn't work, this should: your unexploitable shove which wins 3/4 BB on avg (I'll take your word for it but it sounds right) very, very clearly makes all of the people below you money. not 'miniscule' money, but a lot of money, because when you're called and lose, the guy in 8'th can now be much more patient when waiting for hands [keeping in mind one double up probably makes him average.] where does this money come from? well, it's not from the big stack that calls your shove, that's for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, but the scenario of us pushing, BB calling, us losing is not very likely at all. BB is calling our shove about 12% of the time, tops. I remember at the beginning of this thread I did a range of 22+,a2+,k9s+,kto+ and that was 12.5%. He could very well be calling tighter though. So he's only calling 12% of the time, but about 35% of the time we will win, so we're only going to be out of the tournament about 8% of the time we shove. And that 4% of the time we double up has to count for something. We'd have a huge stack and would be able to abuse the bubble a little bit.

I just don't see how you can call shoving terrible.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think people grossly overestimate the difference between cEV and $EV late in MTTs, especially online MTTs. The difference between 10th and 9th is miniscule, irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

nobody cares about 10th vs. 9th. it's the difference between shorthanded and FR play, which is about to start, that should be intuitive here. how many more actual hands does your M translate to one person from now?

if that doesn't work, this should: your unexploitable shove which wins 3/4 BB on avg (I'll take your word for it but it sounds right) very, very clearly makes all of the people below you money. not 'miniscule' money, but a lot of money, because when you're called and lose, the guy in 8'th can now be much more patient when waiting for hands [keeping in mind one double up probably makes him average.] where does this money come from? well, it's not from the big stack that calls your shove, that's for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, but the scenario of us pushing, BB calling, us losing is not very likely at all. BB is calling our shove about 12% of the time, tops. I remember at the beginning of this thread I did a range of 22+,a2+,k9s+,kto+ and that was 12.5%. He could very well be calling tighter though. So he's only calling 12% of the time, but about 35% of the time we will win, so we're only going to be out of the tournament about 8% of the time we shove. And that 4% of the time we double up has to count for something. We'd have a huge stack and would be able to abuse the bubble a little bit.

I just don't see how you can call shoving terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not sure you realize this but you are RISKING YOUR TOURNAMENT LIFE WITH K8!!!!?!?!!?!

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You said you would have taken some other preflop/flop combination, but hate open shoving. Could you describe in more detail what exactly you would do in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

vs this opponent, limp/RR (and then c/f here), raise/call or raise/fold [if he shoves a big range obviously this isn't an option] are probably all better than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which one would you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

vs someone consciously trying to abuse the bubble, limp/RR all day. unless he raises 4x obv, then he has AQ. lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but like I said in my earlier post, UCLA was not sure if BB was the type to relentlessly abuse the bubble. Without this read, shoving is definitely better than lrring.

[KingDan]

Ad,

I fee1 you are underestimating the times he just shoves here and overestimating how often he 3x /fo1ds.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

QFT.... seriously folding pre-flop is god-awful here, and I'm a huge proponent of just shoving pre as it a.) eliminates any possible mistake you can make like calling this river bet and b.) is completely unexploitable and can make your opponent make a bad mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree somewhat. I am a huge fan of limitting my options when I have a definite +EV play (which a shove is). I disagree that our oponent is likely to make a huge mistake here. (the only mistakes he makes are folding KT-KQ).

I don't know that jamming is the best play, but I don't know what the raptor theorem is, and I don't know how it could ever be a bad play. The max EV line for the BB invloves folding 85+% of his hands, which isn't a bad thing for us.

I think once we play passive preflop, we have to unfortunately fold this river. The problem is, if he is good, we gave him a great window to fold out the best hand.

Adanthar, could you explain the theory, or link or whatever. I am open to being wrong here, but I am gonna need some convincing.

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think people grossly overestimate the difference between cEV and $EV late in MTTs, especially online MTTs. The difference between 10th and 9th is miniscule, irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

nobody cares about 10th vs. 9th. it's the difference between shorthanded and FR play, which is about to start, that should be intuitive here. how many more actual hands does your M translate to one person from now?

if that doesn't work, this should: your unexploitable shove which wins 3/4 BB on avg (I'll take your word for it but it sounds right) very, very clearly makes all of the people below you money. not 'miniscule' money, but a lot of money, because when you're called and lose, the guy in 8'th can now be much more patient when waiting for hands [keeping in mind one double up probably makes him average.] where does this money come from? well, it's not from the big stack that calls your shove, that's for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Adanthar--

You're doublespeaking here. Shoving is unexploitable or it isn't. You're making money or you aren't. "Pushing is unexploitable but a money-loser" doesn't make sense, unless (a) you mean +cEV but -$EV (which it seems pretty clear you don't) or (b) pushing loses money compared to some better option (again, not what you seem to be saying).

Also, basic logic seems to indicate that open-pushing is betbetter than limp-reraising. Most of the time you end up all-in you'll have preferred (or only slightly not preferred) having taken it down preflop.

Finally, when Raptor said that "unexploitable play sucks ass," he definitely did not mean that "all unexploitable plays are bad," and the thrust of his comment was almost certainly not about 14BB blind battles. (Which is not to say that there aren't many 14BB blind-battle spots in which you can profitably deviate from theoretical optima.)

--Nate

[Ansky]

Nate,

He thinks that more +EV options will present themselves in the future with a greater expectation than this one.

I think.

Anyways I think he is way off and it's utter [censored].