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#41
07-13-2007, 06:23 PM
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Re: 1/2 This is a Very Interesting River Spot
[ QUOTE ]
It isn't going to be perfect. You are missing the whole point. [/ QUOTE ] No I'm not. You're giving him combinations for hands he shouldn't have. He checked the turn after raising the flop, and made a scared bet on the river. That is not trips... 
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#42
07-13-2007, 06:34 PM
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Re: 1/2 This is a Very Interesting River Spot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It isn't going to be perfect. You are missing the whole point. [/ QUOTE ] No I'm not. You're giving him combinations for hands he shouldn't have. He checked the turn after raising the flop, and made a scared bet on the river. That is not trips... [/ QUOTE ] I am not saying it is likely to be trips. Would it look better to you if I said his range is KK/QQ/AJ-JT-J8 and then say that he can only have AJ-JT-J8 27% of the time? That is essentially what I did. This might still be overshoot but you have to have some wiggle room and you want to error on the side of giving someone to many hands because that is the mistake that players make. Even if you say he can only have AJ it still is -EV to push with the 10% thing. Besides, you can't read someone range so accurately. You have to give him credit for holding hands that you don't think are logical. I still discounted it quite a bit and it still is major -EV to push if he will only call with KK/QQ 10% of the time. Calculating EV in Poker is always fuzzy. We make assumption but we get in the ball park. I am not saying its perfect. It is probably calculating the EV to be a bit too negative, but it proves the point.
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#43
07-13-2007, 06:44 PM
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Re: 1/2 This is a Very Interesting River Spot
[ QUOTE ]
You're giving him combinations for hands he shouldn't have. [/ QUOTE ]Players show up all the time with hands they shouldn't have. I agree that he usually doesn't play a J this way, but I'd not write it off completely. Then again, perhaps it is different at 1/2- maybe players play more sensibly. At NL50 I see players turn up crap they shouldn't have all the time.
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#44
07-13-2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: 1/2 This is a Very Interesting River Spot
Call. Theres little to none guarantee that he will call shove with qq or kk. if u want to raise I suggest small raise and he might frustrate call it and your plan is to fold to shove (and then we have to be sure he is not going to shove a worse hand)
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#46
07-13-2007, 10:32 PM
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Re: 1/2 This is a Very Interesting River Spot
All, my frustration lies in the fact that I believe every decision in this hand up to the river to be automatic.
I checked the turn because getting stacked with one pair for 200bb on this board sucks.
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#48
07-14-2007, 12:26 AM
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Re: 1/2 This is a Very Interesting River Spot
I totaly agree with SABR.. here. River is a raise and not even that close. His line screams pair, and he will call a raise with worse fairly often. To the comments about combinations. Depending on how well he plays deepstack it is possible that he plays JT and stuff, but if he is a regular full ring player here he isn't showing up with something like that very often.
I don't like betting turn because in villians view it shows so much strength, as in he called a c/r, and is willing to risk another one. It almost makes his hand a jack or a bluff(almost no quite but almost). On the river villain sends out that pathetic 1/5 bet which is a brutally obvious blocking bet. It is possible that villain has a jack, but at the hero's final decision he can be pretty confident the villain doesn't have one now. Because the villain would almost never play a jack like that. I agree with how the hand went down 10-15% of the time villain will show up with a jack here.
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#50
07-14-2007, 01:01 AM
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Re: 1/2 This is a Very Interesting River Spot
[ QUOTE ]
All, my frustration lies in the fact that I believe every decision in this hand up to the river to be automatic. I checked the turn because getting stacked with one pair for 200bb on this board sucks. [/ QUOTE ] If villain is bad enough to call the river push with KK/QQ won't he call the turn less than PSB with it? Won't he likely follow up by calling the river (less than) PSB with it also? I mean, even he is going to call a river push then why won't he call a bet on the turn followed by a bet on the river? Now, he may not call two bets, sure. But he may call with worse hands more often on the turn allowing you to get your money in with a much better chance of being called by a worse hand. Clearly I don't think that just stacking off on this board all the time is good. However, is the real/only reason you are checking the turn is because "it sucks to get stacked" here? There has to be another reason if it is so automatic. If this guy is bad, which is what your read is on him because of a minraise, then he will call a turn bet here. There is no reason to check the turn unless you believe that his river bet includes enough information that you can accurately assess whether or not he has KK/QQ or trips. His small river bet makes it much more likely that he has a worse PP, but he still has to call with it. Saying that something is automatic doesn't really help anyone.
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