NL100: AJs Flops big combo draw

[Ryanj37]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($105.25)</font>
UTG+1 ($74.70)
MP1 ($111.25)
MP2 ($74)
MP3 ($84.60)
CO ($268.10)
Button ($207.65)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($152.35)</font>
BB ($99)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls $4, SB calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($13) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $22</font>, Hero calls $14.

Turn: ($57) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $126.35 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $79.25 (All-In).

River: ($262.60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $262.60

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has 9d 8d (two pair, nines and eights).
Hero has Jh Ah (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $215.50. SB wins $47.10. </font>

[black666]

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I think this is pretty fair and we have 45% equity at this point. If we push here and get a call we are laying about 1.6:1(114.25:71.25) odds here. This means we only have to good 38% of the time we win to break even. Since we are good 45% of the time pushing is absolutely +EV.

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Maybe a dumb question, but if we are laying 1.6:1, isn't it villain who has to be good 38% of the time to break even and hero 62%?

And how do you come up with the numbers? If hero pushes, the pot contains $136.25. Villain has to call $79.25 .. so we are actually laying him 1.7:1

[DTD]

The problem with pushing is that c/r this flop in this spot and then folding virtually never happens at FR. Without reading through the responses I would say that pushing cannot be a huge mistake but calling is probably marginally better. So many players play these hands based on misguided logic IMO.

[threads13]

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I think this is pretty fair and we have 45% equity at this point. If we push here and get a call we are laying about 1.6:1(114.25:71.25) odds here. This means we only have to good 38% of the time we win to break even. Since we are good 45% of the time pushing is absolutely +EV.

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Maybe a dumb question, but if we are laying 1.6:1, isn't it villain who has to be good 38% of the time to break even and hero 62%?

And how do you come up with the numbers? If hero pushes, the pot contains $136.25. Villain has to call $79.25 .. so we are actually laying him 1.7:1

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It's not a dumb question. It is unclear the wordage I used. I should have said something along the lines of "we are getting 1.6:1 on a push" instead of using the term "laying". Of course, the pot is laying the villain odds as well.

Whoops! You are right. For some silly reason I have the hero's stack at $71.25 after the villains push, really his stack is $93.25. I had a brain fart and thought that hero's $22 call was already in the pot.

So if hero pushes there will $136.25. Ok, so if the villain calls we are getting 1.5:1(136.25:92.25) on a push if we are called. We don't count winning our own money back when we calculate effective odds.

This changes all the math... I will plug in the new numbers when I get a chance. I am at work now.

[threads13]

Alright, let's try this again with the correct numbers. This makes the call a better play though. Since our stack is deeper we have higher implied odds and aren't getting as good effective odds on a push.

Here is the range I using for our villain:

JJ-77,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,87o,7 6o

The EV of pushing if we get call 100% of time:

(0.45) * ($136.25) + (0.55) * (-$93.25) = 61.31 - 51.29 = $10.02 EV


If we assume we will get his stack 100% of the time that we turn a straight or a flush:

EV of calling if we have 12 outs:

12 ways to make either hand = 2.9:1 = 26%

(0.26) * ($136.25) - (0.74) * (-$14) = 35.42 - 10.36 = $25.06 EV


EV of calling with 11 outs:

11 outs = 3.3:1 = 23%

(0.23) * ($136.25) - (0.77) * (-$14) = 31.34 - 10.78 = $20.56 EV

[threads13]

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Results please. I just want to know if my first range I proposed without any sets are correct. I am 95% sure that SB doesn't have a set. Call it a gut feeling. Show me the results to prove me wrong, that is, I should have included the sets in the range.

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You are getting psychic channels through your computer?

You should know better!

[threads13]

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Fist off, this is a kickass thread. Hats off to threads13 esp.
I think posting stopped, so I hope not everyone is done. Couple thoughts.

I recently got pstove and am not good with it; is there a way to adjust likelihood with ranges, ie 87o half as likely as JJ?
Anyway, i think 970, 87o,etc might be pushing it for most people. Also, 66 seems more likely than these.

I don't think we are always stacking him if we turn it so, or if he checks and we river it, so EV is inflated, but we should get some money and with the direct odds to call flop call works.
If he has JT or JJ and we get it in when T hits turn we are freerolling to flush.
crap, gotta go, uhhh, is pushing still best?

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How often would you say that we are stacking him on the turn? Consider the range we put him on, how much of that range is going to be able to get away on the turn from any of our outs. I agree that we can't see it will be 100%, but I believe its well over 90%.

Since the EV of calling and trying to stack him on the turn is higher than the EV of pushing(much higher given our newest calculations) we should call and try to stack him in this particular situation.

There is a way you can kind of fake weighting the probability of each hands using poker stove. PM and/or email me sometime if you want.

[black666]

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So if hero pushes there will $136.25. Ok, so if the villain calls we are getting 1.5:1(136.25:92.25) on a push if we are called.

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I still don't get how you can get odds when it is villain who does the calling.

[threads13]

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So if hero pushes there will $136.25. Ok, so if the villain calls we are getting 1.5:1(136.25:92.25) on a push if we are called.

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I still don't get how you can get odds when it is villain who does the calling.

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Heh, I see what you are saying.

I will try to explain it.

Pot odds is just the relationship between how much you can win and how much it cost you to get there.

If you get called, you can win 136.25 but it will cost you 93.25.

Normally we think about odds when we are calling a bet. However, mathematically speaking it is no different to call a %1 bet in a $10 pot(it was $9 before the bet) then it is to bet $1 into a 9 dollar pot and get called.

[black666]

ahhh...now I get it. Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]