please post longterm ptbb at given stakes

[Josh.]

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plz come up with an exact number where they converge with reasoning, otherwise i will just continue to think you have no statistical background at all. why is 150k the magic number? how do you take in account the level that a player is playing at? why can't players be playing like [censored] for 30k hands?

yadadada

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150K is not a "magic number". I just threw out an arbitrarily large number that is not quite the long run but not quite meaningless.

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To calculate this you'd need to know a typical standard deviation for aggressive, short handed games. You can get this in PokerTracker by clicking "more detail" on the session notes tab. The value will be in BB/100.

Once you have this, you can calculate the 95% confidence interval around your winrate like this:

true winrate = reported winrate ± 1.96 * standard_deviation/sqrt(hands/100)

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and 1 in 20 times, a persons true winrate will be outside the range you get from this calculation

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side note....that equation is most likely worthless as it doesn't look like poker winrates are gaussian when scatter plotted. YOu need a different distribution assumption IMO.

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yeah that or a simulation, which is probably easier

[HEK]

i believe it's impossible for someone's winrate to "converge"

[silenced]

5ptbb/100 at 2/4NL FTP

[ArturiusX]

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i believe it's impossible for someone's winrate to "converge"

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Correct. Game selection dynamics make it impossible.

Scorer, you seem to have an obsession with winrate. Its easily the most irrelovent stat in pokertracker.

[wpr101]

I'm surprised; some of the winrates seem pretty high. But I guess that is good because it means poker it still profitable for us.

[Josh.]

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I'm surprised; some of the winrates seem pretty high. But I guess that is good because it means most people are lying, exaggerating, or filtering.

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fyp

[True]

anyone saying "post more than 150k", why would anyone with a good winrate have 150k hands?

[Josh.]

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anyone saying "post more than 150k", why would anyone with a good winrate have 150k hands?

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haven't you played a lot more than that at 2/5 with a big winrate?

[whittiphil]

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I'm surprised; some of the winrates seem pretty high. But I guess that is good because it means poker it still profitable for us.

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Anyone with a higher than average winrate for a winning poker player on 2p2 has posted here. Self-selection bias

[True]

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anyone saying "post more than 150k", why would anyone with a good winrate have 150k hands?

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haven't you played a lot more than that at 2/5 with a big winrate?

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maybe, but i only have 25k hands in my PT [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].