theory: "the showdown tax" - Page 5

Isura · #41 06-11-2007, 10:52 AM

I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove.

Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications.

Isura · #42 06-11-2007, 10:55 AM

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CATerp: This is a fantastic post. It better not ruin the [censored] games [censored]. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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yeah, this is something that I instinctively do, but don't see others do. It won't change the games much though, because many don't read 2p2 or don't like variance. They'll try it for a bit, have some poor results and revert to being nitty.

Snipe · #43 06-11-2007, 05:50 PM

Interesting post and more examples would certainly be welcome.

I’d add that when you get looked and owned, many opponents are going to think you’re a complete donkey, which is a great meta benefit. I know there have been many times where I’ve played a hand in a similar fashion, lost at SD, and smiled as the chat box lit up with some likely 2+2er berating me with their chests puffed up from having picked off my ‘bluff’.

As far as the individual hands go, they illustrate the point fairly well, however I’m not sure I really like them. Both hands 1&2 look like you’re leaving value on the table to me, though I guess it’s not too hard to imagine it being EV neutral while making you harder to play against Hand 3 is totally read dependent IMO.

aislephive · #44 06-11-2007, 06:07 PM

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I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove.

Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications.

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Hand 1 is definitely more of a bluff than a value bet against a solid player, I don't see how that's even debatable. You really think some tag is calling this river with A8? I can see this being a good value shove against a calling station, but this is absolutely horrible against a lot of players.

Isura · #45 06-11-2007, 06:25 PM

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I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove.

Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications.

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Hand 1 is definitely more of a bluff than a value bet against a solid player, I don't see how that's even debatable. You really think some tag is calling this river with A8? I can see this being a good value shove against a calling station, but this is absolutely horrible against a lot of players.

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It can't be a bluff because no worst hand is going to fold IMO. So it's a terrible bluff. It not as bad of a valuebet because it is more likely that they call with worse than they fold better. That is the point of the concept. The action indicates that we are ahead, but its a very marginal or 0EV valuebet spot.

The White Rabbit · #46 06-11-2007, 06:25 PM

I think it's good vs. TAGs (and obv. very good against cs's). Most TAGs 3-bet AQ+ PF and play a set/2 pair like this close to never.

If he's always folding A8 here that's free money for you.

bilbo-san · #47 06-11-2007, 06:33 PM

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op = straight thug

seriously...

i think these river plays are around 0 ev with notable metagame value.

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There is no way in hell they are zero EV, and all are +EV.

There's a reason people on this board often look at hands like this where Hero has air and tell people "Lol, don't triple barrel here, he'll look you up with TP a ton".

aislephive · #48 06-11-2007, 06:34 PM

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I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove.

Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications.

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Hand 1 is definitely more of a bluff than a value bet against a solid player, I don't see how that's even debatable. You really think some tag is calling this river with A8? I can see this being a good value shove against a calling station, but this is absolutely horrible against a lot of players.

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It can't be a bluff because no worst hand is going to fold IMO. So it's a terrible bluff. It not as bad of a valuebet because it is more likely that they call with worse than they fold better. That is the point of the concept. The action indicates that we are ahead, but its a very marginal or 0EV valuebet spot.

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I really don't think we're ahead of almost any tags calling range. If you have a read and expect to be called down by A9 then sure, it's ok. But against a solid player with no history do you really expect him to call with worse or fold better? I really don't. If he calls with AT+ and folds A2-A9, shoving is a losing proposition. Not that it's true that he will always call better/fold worse, but I would expect to be behind when called the vast majority of the time.

bilbo-san · #49 06-11-2007, 06:37 PM

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one thing to consider, is that this is something villains will notice quickly... and it gives the thinking ones a pretty good idea of their implied odds, so it may encourage loose calls with draws....... which in some ways is obv. good, but it can also be bad, depending on how well villain chooses the boards he does it on

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I don't think villains catch on that quickly.

In a 1000 hand session, I bet the situation comes up once or twice, where I have a very good non-moster hand and my opponent obviously has a weak made hand and has called 2 streets. Then that person has to actually call the river for any villain to pick up on it.

Cliff notes: You still aren't going bet-bet-shove often enough for villains to think you are nutso aggressive.

aislephive · #50 06-11-2007, 06:38 PM

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op = straight thug

seriously...

i think these river plays are around 0 ev with notable metagame value.

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There is no way in hell they are zero EV, and all are +EV.

There's a reason people on this board often look at hands like this where Hero has air and tell people "Lol, don't triple barrel here, he'll look you up with TP a ton".

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Huh? There are plenty of hands where you put somebody on just top pair and make a massively +EV 3 barrell. When people say "he won't fold top pair here" they're almost always reffering to a donk and not a tag.