Party Poker, 50NL, and the state of things

[Gelford]

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I have lost 40 flips in a row ... most of them in my favor ... while playing sngs.


[censored] just does happen.

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Do you know what the odds of losing 40 coinflips in a row are?


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Yep, and it still happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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So what are they?

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(1/2)^40

Are you testing my math skilz ?

[sputum]

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I have lost 40 flips in a row ... most of them in my favor ... while playing sngs.


[censored] just does happen.

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Do you know what the odds of losing 40 coinflips in a row are?


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Yep, and it still happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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So what are they?

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(1/2)^40

Are you testing my math skilz ?

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In a format everyone can understand? then we'll see if you're testing my credulity skillz [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Would it be around 1 thousand billion to one that a specific sequence of 40 coinflips all come up the same way?
That's WITHOUT 'most of them being in your favour'
I'll do simulations later if I'm bored or work it out the old-fashioned way if my brain restarts. How many lifetime SNG do you have (roughly)?

[ama0330]

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Are you really interpreting my post as "downswings are impossible"? Honestly

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But you are so [censored] deluded if you think you can have a 10bi+ ds at 50nl and play every hand perfect. NO WAY.

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Sounds like it, doesn't it?

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Only if you arent reading properly. What I'm saying is that most downswings of 10bi or more are mre than just bad luck, and I'd bet that 99% of all people including myself who have had 10bi+ ds at 50nl or below have played less than optimally throughout.

Seriously, you think I'm trying to say that ds are impossible? Talk about leaps of logic jesus

[ama0330]

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How about this one

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Nobody who is a winning player below NL25 should ever, ever be going on a 17bi ds and I don't give a [censored] if you have some fancy mathematical model to prove its possible.

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I stand by that one 100%. You are offended because it was you?

[ama0330]

I've got a better hypothesis.

aba20 somehow agrees to play 500k hands of 25nl. At what odds would you wager a bet that he goes on a 17bi downswing?

[kazana]

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I've got a better hypothesis.

aba20 somehow agrees to play 500k hands of 25nl. At what odds would you wager a bet that he goes on a 17bi downswing?

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Depends on his win rate & std dev. It's certainly not in the realm of fairy tales, but definitely less likely than for other, more "normal" players.

How hard is it to get that some mathematical truths hold true? Just because you can't imagine it, doesn't mean it ain't possible.

[Triggerle]

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How about this one

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Nobody who is a winning player below NL25 should ever, ever be going on a 17bi ds and I don't give a [censored] if you have some fancy mathematical model to prove its possible.

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I stand by that one 100%. You are offended because it was you?

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I'm offended because it is bad maths and wrong.

[sputum]

Meh I'm kinda torn. I do think that if you have a 17 buyin downswing at micro limits it's a big indicator that your edge overall is not high enough, but it doesn't mean you're not (or can't be) a winner. As long as nobody's writing off a downswing without looking at it very carefully that's OK.

[Chomp]

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I've got a better hypothesis.

aba20 somehow agrees to play 500k hands of 25nl. At what odds would you wager a bet that he goes on a 17bi downswing?

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Let me throw the question back at you...what are the chances aba would go on a 10BI downswing at 25NL? (10BI's seems to be your cut-off point between, let's say, an "understandable" ds and a "donkey" ds.)

If we remove all the bad plays (going from your own post, about 50% of the losses) as we assume he won't make any of these, then a 5BI ds for aba at NL25 should be possible. Right? That has to be the logical conclusion from your posts.

ZOMG! The best poker player in the world can have a 5BI ds at NL25! That makes him only 3 times "better" than someone having a 15BI ds. Right?

Well if the best player in the world can have a 5BI ds at monkey retard level poker, then I suddenly don't feel so bad about having a ds only 3 times worse. Heck, if I was 1/3 as good as aba I'd be up $500,000 this month!

So I think there are logical absurdities in your line of reasoning here aba. Sorry, I mean ama. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ama0330]

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Depends on his win rate & std dev.

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LMAO