Chance of Life Elsewhere

[HP]

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In fact, I just did a quick scroll through the link I provided for a quick laugh. I suggest you do the same.

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from that page:

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Maximum possible number of planets in universe 10^22

Thus, less than 1 chance in 10182 (hundred trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion) exists that even one such planet would occur anywhere in the universe.

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so yeah, there's not a maximum possible number of planets in the universe. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are talking about the observable universe.

and even then their calculation seems wacked. I guess that's what you meant by good for a laugh [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CallMeIshmael]

HP,

can you define "probably".. because, from several posts in this thread, it seems your definition might be off

[HP]

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HP,

can you define "probably".. because, from several posts in this thread, it seems your definition might be off

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60% confidence say

[CallMeIshmael]

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HP,

can you define "probably".. because, from several posts in this thread, it seems your definition might be off

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60% confidence say

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ok, then how can you get to > 60% chance of life on some non-earth planet without knowledge of p

(unless you mean that the statement can be logical after we find life on another planet)

[HP]

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ok, then how can you get to > 60% chance of life on some non-earth planet without knowledge of p

(unless you mean that the statement can be logical after we find life on another planet)

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I was implying some one could possibly find p in a logical way

However some one could not find N in a logical way (only a lower bound)

[CallMeIshmael]

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I was implying some one could possibly find p in a logical way

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how can you estimate the probability of an event occuring without ever observing it happening?

[HP]

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I was implying some one could possibly find p in a logical way

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how can you estimate the probability of an event occuring without ever observing it happening?

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Regardless of whether this can be done or not, the following is still true:

one cannot logically say there is probably no life elsewhere in the Universe

agreed?

Now to answer your question. I haven't thought about it much to be honest (none at all until you came into this thread). Well, if we became extremely knowledgeable exactly as to how life arose on Earth, and our astronomical techniques became so good we were able to figure out the chances of a random planet having a particular make up, then maybe from there we could run some simulations?

I could easily be wrong, it was my best guess

[Piers]

Don’t forget coevolution between life and the planet. Earth is ideal for us to live in partly because we made it so.

Life in general is very adaptable; there are many extreme conditions on earth where life survives. A world could be very different from earth but have some selected earth life forms survive on it. Europa? Of course being hospitable to life is not necessarily equivalent to having the conditions to generate life from scratch.

So even if Earth like planets are rare, it is not necessarily true that earth like life is similarly rare.

[PairTheBoard]

I saw an interesting show about a theory for how Earth's moon formed. The theory has an astroid-planetoid type body colliding with the Earth. But it has to collide in just the right way or else similations don't show the moon forming. I think it had to be a kind of glancing blow type collision. So the chances of it happening just right look pretty small.

In addition, I learned that the Moon is a profound stabalizing force on the Earth's axis of rotation. The Moon makes the Earth's axis sort of wobble back and forth, keeping it relatively stable. Without the Moon the axis would gyrate all over the place. The implications are that the Earth's weather patterns would be relatively chaotic. While you might see primitive life forms evolve on the planet, more advanced forms would never get a chance. Environmental conditions would change too rapidly causing too frequent mass extinctions.

PairTheBoard

[HP]

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In addition, I learned that the Moon is a profound stabalizing force on the Earth's axis of rotation. The Moon makes the Earth's axis sort of wobble back and forth, keeping it relatively stable. Without the Moon the axis would gyrate all over the place. The implications are that the Earth's weather patterns would be relatively chaotic.

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I've heard a physics professor say the same thing. My money says there's a lot of Earth-like planets out there that never got hit by an asteroid just the right way, and those planets don't have complex life on them