Common No Limit Situation

[iggymcfly]

I agree with Pete Fabrizio here. If you fold to the half-pot lead here, you're a huge pussy. Contrary to what some people are saying, you don't play AQ "just because it's suited" (WTF, is A2s stronger than AQo now?). A lot of times, you make top pair and hope to win with it.

Any way, while a set is possible, something like AJ or AT that wants to see where they are cheaply is also possible, as is a semi-bluff with a good draw. This could easily be something like Jh9h or Ahxh that's just hoping we'll raise so they can 3-bet all-in and make us fold our hand that's flipping with them.

I'd definitely just call the flop here. See what the action's like behind and try to get a better read on BB from what he does on the turn. I'd be folding most heart turns and when a blank comes off, I'd usually either be calling or raising to protect against draws and take a free showdown although folding's still a definite option. I'd also play a set this way a lot of the time, so I don't think this gives away anything about my hand either except maybe that it's relatively strong.

FWIW, the people that think pushing's even remotely a consideration with ~250 big blinds here know nothing about poker. Why you'd take a WA/WB top pair hand like AQ and overbet it for 5x the pot here is beyond me.

[Dromar]

@Matt Williams: I don't think the amount of money is the problem here. I can only speak for myself, but I assume that most if not all people here have detached the "OMG this is $1800 REAL MONEY" circuit in their brains.

First, I'd like to think that we're all in agreement that calling is NOT the best option. We're divided between the remaining choices to raise or fold.

It seems that the proponents for folding are saying:
1)Raising would put our money at risk with a very vulnerable hand that has a high probability of not even being the best right now, and almost no chance of improving.
2)We're in terrible relative and absolute position too, which means we'll tend to win a little or lose a lot, and generally be put to tough decisions where we're likely to make lots of mistakes.

And the proponents for raising are saying:
1)We can't be imagining monsters under the bed and turn into pussies. The proponents for folding are assuming BB has a monster hand, and that's unreasonable.
2)Everyone else is as afraid as we are. We've shown the strength preflop. If we raise here, everyone behind us is going to be hardpressed to call, which will buy us position, both relative and absolute. If a player behind us calls or reraises us, we know where to stand, and we haven't lost a lot of money. Raising is going to
a)put us in a favorable situation for the rest of the hand (in position HU against the BB), or
b)force any of the players behind us to overtly announce the strength of their hand (either by raising or calling), and allow us to fold without losing too much money.

I'm pretty sure that if we were HU against BB, none of us would be advocating folding right off the bat like this. Of course, the difference is we've got 4 people behind us that could have us in serious trouble. But that won't always be the case, and raising lets us know exactly what's going on with respect to those other 4 players, thus effectively getting us HU against the BB.

The only bone of contention that has currently been left undiscussed is
"What could BB possibly be betting here?"
My estimate:
I imagine that if BB does have a monster, he won't bet it all the time, just like he's unlikely to have AA, but it's certainly possible, so I'm going to include them.
BB could be betting with: (analyzed using PokerStove)
AA, 88, 77, A8, A7, 87, AhKh, AhQh, Th9h, 9h6h, 6h5h (2.5% of hands, we have 19.6% equity HU)
AxKx, AhXh, KhXh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th6h, 9h5h, 5h4h, 6h4h, AhXx (4.2% of hands, we have 61.1% equity HU)
Tx9x, 9x6x, 6x5x (3.4% of hands, we have 64.5% equity HU)

which gives us ~52% equity HU, which I believe is more than we need given that there's a significant amount of money in the pot already.

Don't forget his immense preflop pot odds when considering the hands he could have. Also, some weaker hands (the bottom tier) were thrown in to include the possibility of semibluffs.

[Dromar]

didn't see your post there iggy.

Don't you think calling invites too much action from the players behind you? Wouldn't it be better to isolate the BB (if possible) by raising?

[thatpfunk]

call, reevaluate on the turn.

[Phanekim]

Just caught this thread. Its a fold. I'm surprised pete fabrizio says he doesn't believe that people will fold this. I see him in the omaha forums and regard him as one who knows what he's talking about. I'm interested to see his reasoning why its not a fold.

I ran into an exact same situation (more or less) live one time. A friend, who at the time was learning to be good, saw my hole cards. I folded. He was completely puzzled why I had folded.

Turns out the BB had hit the flush on the flop. Needless to say I saved myself some serious dough and my friend rarely doubts me again.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

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First of all, BB can't really be semi-bluffing here. I have to put him on Axh, A7, A8, 78, 77 or 88.

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So when you hit your Ace with AQ, but someone bets before you, you always assume you're beat by everything he might hold except the Axh hand, and just fold? Kinda weak-tight, no?

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context

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
Just caught this thread. Its a fold. I'm surprised pete fabrizio says he doesn't believe that people will fold this. I see him in the omaha forums and regard him as one who knows what he's talking about. I'm interested to see his reasoning why its not a fold.

I ran into an exact same situation (more or less) live one time. A friend, who at the time was learning to be good, saw my hole cards. I folded. He was completely puzzled why I had folded.

Turns out the BB had hit the flush on the flop. Needless to say I saved myself some serious dough and my friend rarely doubts me again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok fine. You're getting 3-1 on your money, and you're easily above 50% against the bettors range right now. I'm not sure yet whether I prefer raising or calling, but I think either is better than folding:

You can call here, and if no one calls, the turn will define your hand pretty well. If it's a heart you'll be way behind his range, and if it's a blank you'll be way ahead of his range. If you get overcalls, a blank on the turn will give you a very strong hand in a big multiway pot -- and there's a good likelihood that a couple of your opponents have each others outs and/or dominate each other. If there is one raiser behind you and everyone folds, you can either call or fold depending on your feel. If there is more than one raise back to you, you can obviously fold.

If you raise, you'll be getting worse immediate odds, a little less than 1-1 on your money, but you'll clarify the situation better. If someone comes over the top of you from behind, you can usually just fold without sweating it. If you get cold callers, again the turn should define your hand pretty well. If only the original bettor calls, you should be comfortably ahead of his range on the turn when a blank comes, and you'll have a couple different ways to play it. And if he comes over the top of you, you should prob just fold -- if he's really the type who would bet like this to set up a very large 3-bet semi-bluff, I would probably opt for just calling in the first place.

Edit: After thinking about the hand enough to write this post, I think I agree with Iggy that calling is better, b/c raising really is an invitation for a 25-50 player (whether from behind or the original bettor) to 3-bet semi-bluff.

[drj003]

Fold in 3.7 seconds. Most of the time in that spot you are beat. Take a cheap 200 dollar hit, you can find a much better spot to make money.

[drj003]

Most players in the BBs situation would probably not bet anything below ace queen there. If he is any kind of a player, you wouldn't put him on AJ there would you? Betting into the raiser and 4 people total. He is showing a lot of strength. He is not bluffing. Unless he is a complete fool, most of the time he has you beat. Even if he doesn't, the others could. This is way too marginal a situation. I don't think he would have anything less than ak in this spot...or an absolutely monster draw.

[jlkrusty]

Either raise or fold. Calling is terrible, as it gives us no good information, and allows almost all drawing hands (even some gut shots with backdoor draws) to correctly stay in the hand. If we want to stay in this hand, we've got to eliminate the players to act behind us. Calling will virtually never do that.

Between raising and folding (and without further information about the players), folding is better. Staying in this hand is, on average, -EV. BB's bet signals a hand that will beat us 70% of the time (according to pokerstove). And, even when we are ahead, it's going to be very difficult to know.

If I knew more about my opponents (like how often they've been calling preflop, etc.), how often BB plays hands like AT, how often he bets them, etc. then I might find a raise here to $1,200 or $1,800. Absent that information, a fold is the best play.