Top 12 Analysis

[thing85]

Rather than start a new post, I'll bump my original thread with my updated elimination projection:

Previous projection:

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12. Haley Scarnato
11. Phil Stacey
10. Sanjaya Malakar
9. Stephanie Edwards
8. Brandon Rogers
7. Gina Glocksen
6. Jordin Sparks
5. Chris Richardson
4. Blake Lewis
3. Lakisha Jones
2. Chris Sligh
1. Melinda Doolittle

[/ QUOTE ]

11. Sanjaya Malakar (-1)
10. Stephanie Edwards (-1)
9. Phil Stacey (+2)
8. Haley Scarnato (+4)
7. Chris Richardson (-2)
6. Gina Glocksen (+1)
5. Chris Sligh (-3)
4. Jordin Sparks (+2)
3. Blake Lewis (-1)
2. Lakisha Jones (+1)
1. Melinda Doolittle (No change)

Some notes on the movement:

- With Sanjaya in the B3 this past week, it's clear that his fan base is losing its voting power. Also, I think people may be getting sick of him (those who, for the whole competition thus far, have found him to be cute or felt sorry for him). Eventually it gets old. Assuming he doesn't pull off an astonishing performance next week, I think he's finally gone.

- Stephanie has been putting together good, but forgettable performances. With the judges pimping Jordin and the obvious quality of Lakisha/Melinda, Stephanie will find herself in the B3 this week (unless she can pull off a performance better than one of Lakisha or Melinda).

- Phil is still B3, but another decent performance like last week keeps him around a little longer.

- Haley is sticking around due to her "unique" (in this competition) image and demographic appeal. Barely misses the B3 though.

- Chris R.'s act is getting old fast. He's safe for awhile, but not far from the bottom, especially if he has an underwhelming performance next week.

- Gina, like Haley, has a unique image and appeal. I see them as interchangeable in the 7 & 9 spots but gave Gina a slight edge due to my personal opinion that she is a bit better than Haley.

- Sligh has slipped with a not-so-great performance this past week. However, I think this could still fuel his supporters and keep him around long enough to pull off a couple of solid performances.

- Jordin's rank rises due to the judges' recent comments. I don't think she was any better this past week than in the past, but she will go far if the judges want her to.

- Blake falls to #3 with a weak performance this past week. He still holds a strong position due to the fact that he is probably still the "favorite" guy, and I think that's enough to let him last long.

- Lakisha rises on a solid performance where she sounded great despite showing her "softer" singing side. Up to this point, comments have frequently said "She's only great because of her powerful 'screaming' voice." This past week proved she could sing wonderfully without always "screaming." Note: I don't think she's really screaming per se, but it's a common perception.

- Melinda doesn't need any explanation.

We'll see how it turns out.

[SumZero]

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4. Blake Lewis


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3. Blake Lewis (-1)

- Blake falls to #3 with a weak performance this past week. He still holds a strong position due to the fact that he is probably still the "favorite" guy, and I think that's enough to let him last long.


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Blake increased by 1 spot and should be +1 not -1 on your lists.

I think I'd swap Jordain and Chris S on your list but otherwise seems about right.

[thing85]

Good catch, thanks for pointing that out. I must've thought for a second that I previously had him in the #2 spot.

So really, he goes up due to worse performances by Sligh and Richardson.