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#41
02-18-2007, 02:35 AM
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Re: 2007 mlb season win totals
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Thremp, it spikes my interest that you say you are a bad handicapper and yet you insult people's thoughts on a team. Please, please indulge me on your math analysis of the Chicago Cubs. If you are going to insult people and turn this into an epenis thing, as you claim to not like, share your thoughts instead of telling people they are wrong. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Ha. Was I unclear? HR is a bad stat to analyze a team's win probability, so is discussing how someone is a "headcase". If you can't put a number to it and attempt to put together the how or why of a bet, its almost worthless unless they bet is so clear you don't even need to calc it. Sitting around and "discussing" a sport isn't handicapping it. Its circle jerking while pretending you have an edge on a season long bet. Granted I really don't disagree with the conclusion that was reached, but as I explained above (in my other posts) it was reached for all the wrong reasons. Post Oak, HU capping challenge for rollz? Well since I'm busto... Whats left of mine? 
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#42
02-18-2007, 03:00 AM
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Re: 2007 mlb season win totals
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Thremp, it spikes my interest that you say you are a bad handicapper and yet you insult people's thoughts on a team. Please, please indulge me on your math analysis of the Chicago Cubs. If you are going to insult people and turn this into an epenis thing, as you claim to not like, share your thoughts instead of telling people they are wrong. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Ha. Was I unclear? HR is a bad stat to analyze a team's win probability, so is discussing how someone is a "headcase". If you can't put a number to it and attempt to put together the how or why of a bet, its almost worthless unless they bet is so clear you don't even need to calc it. Sitting around and "discussing" a sport isn't handicapping it. Its circle jerking while pretending you have an edge on a season long bet. Granted I really don't disagree with the conclusion that was reached, but as I explained above (in my other posts) it was reached for all the wrong reasons. Post Oak, HU capping challenge for rollz? Well since I'm busto... Whats left of mine? [/ QUOTE ] Thremp, the thing is, you did disagree with his conclusion, you clearly stated that you thought the Chicago Cubs were one of the best teams of the NL Central. Not only did you state that above in the thread, you said that his reasons for disliking the Cubs were stupid, so I asked to hear your reasoning behind the Cubs being one of the better teams. For the record, I have nothing against you, but you sit around insulting people, and then when someone calls you out, you say talking about sports is a circle jerk. Well my friend, you are in a sports betting forum. That is what we do here. People who can't handicap, try and get better by talking to more experienced players. I asked you to explain your math analysis of the Cubs and it seems to me you just tried to side step around it. The simple fact of the matter is there are TO MANY statistical variables for you as a human being to compute and accurately predict an outcome. You just can't do it, no single person can. You can review information from magazine, the net, games watched, and make an educated guess. But for you to spout off things about standard deviation is just plain silly. So before you run off at the mouth insulting people about something you yourself said you aren't good at, think.
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#43
02-18-2007, 03:10 AM
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Re: 2007 mlb season win totals
Miami32,
I don't think I can be more clear. The Cubs are the best team in the Central and I agree with his conclusion. I am not going to sit here and break down for you exactly why or why not the Cubs are good, but it is fairly obvious why his analysis is bad. I'm trying to point him to a better and more practical way, but it appears he is set in the "human" aspect of baseball. So be it. This is not a sports discussion forum. There is one for that. This is a betting forum. Knowledge is useless unless you can transfer it to a +EV bet, which coincidently involves numbers. I really don't understand your last part. Doing all the analysis myself is pointless. U C Y?
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#49
02-18-2007, 04:19 AM
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Re: 2007 mlb season win totals
[ QUOTE ]
Post Oak, HU capping challenge for rollz? Well since I'm busto... Whats left of mine? [/ QUOTE ] I think I would want to do that, but there are several problems. First of all, the money would need to be posted up to a reliable person before hand. Secondly, I don't think there is any way that I could verify that your picks were the result of your own handicapping. It seems that you are in contact with several experienced, successful cappers and that they share info with you. I would be more than happy to engage in a wager against someone with a few months of sportsbetting experience (you), but I have no interest in going up against a team of several succussful cappers. Lastly, being a math guy, you would probably want to make the # of picks fairly high. Let's say 150 straight bets, or something of that nature. Right now I only bet college basketball. I don't bet NBA (can't beat it) and rarely bet MLB (can't beat it). Plus, I am going on a trip soon. So what I am getting at is that it would have to be a really long contest for me to get so many picks in. To give you an idea, I have only made 40 straight bets so far for this NCAA BBall season. A lot of this is due to the fact that I only start betting after all teams have played around 15 games or so, but much of it is due to the fact that I play poker for a living, and capping is just a hobby (though I always intend to make money). So a lot of times I don't even wake up in time to bet the early Saturday games (early for me is before 2:00 PM), or I am traveling. You get the idea (and I just realized I will be traveling during the start of March Madness - doh). So I think it would be hard to come up with acceptable parameters. It may not be at all feasible, but it's an interesting idea. Another possibility would be that I would wager that you can't pick Y% winners in X straight bets by Z date. Feel free to PM me with any offers.
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