400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?

[JrJordan]

I'm no n00b but I'm taking an EV stab at this. I’m going to assume everyone has $400 stacks just to make the numbers a little easier to work with. I could really use someone out there to double check the numbers though:

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Cliffnotes: The push is worth +$11 using the assumptions made below. Pushing as a result is better than folding in this situation.
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Technical version:


Action so far:
UTG raises to $16
UTG+1 reraises to $48
Button calls $48
Our SB $3
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Total pot so far $115

28/22 UTG initial PFR range: 22+,A9s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo (top 15% hands)

30/25 UTG+1 reraise range:
88+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,AQo+,KQo (top 7.5% of hands)

70/50 Button cold call range:
22+,A9s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (top 20% of hands)

Now let's assume we push, and determine the calling range/percentage for each scenario.


Scenario 1: All fold

UTG will call with QQ+,AKs,AKo (though I expect that's wider than actuality. I think it's really much closer to just AA and KK). That's the top 2.5% of his hands, meaning he folds 5/6 of the time. UTG+1 likely calls with the same range, but it’s narrower due to his preflop reraise so he folds 2/3 of the time. I really can’t put button on a good folding range here, so I’ll just say he folds ¾ of the time since he calls with a lot of garbage.

EV given scenario: $115
Total EV: 5/6*2/3*3/4 = 41.6%*$115 = $48


Scenario 2: UTG calls, all fold

From the last calculation, UTG calls 1/6 of the time. UTG+1 at this point is only calling with AA/KK at best which means he’s folding 87% of the time. Button again we’ll just say folds 75% of the time.

Percentage occurs: 1/6*.87*.75 = 11%
Equity when called: 39%
Total pot size: $896
EV given scenario: .39*496+.61*-400 = -$51
Total EV: -$51*.11 = -$6


Scenario 3: UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Button folds

Again using last calculation, UTG calls 1/6 of the time, UTG+1 calls on top 13% of the time. Button may be more likely to call here given the huge pot size and decent odds for random suited connectors, so lets say he folds 50% of the time instead of 75%.

Percentage occurs: 1/6*.13*.50 = 1%
Equity when called: 10%
Total pot size: $1248
EV given scenario: .10*848+.9*-400 = -$275
Total EV: .01*275 = -$3


Scenario 4: UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Button calls

Percentage occurs: 1/6*.13*.50 = 1%
Equity when called (assuming Button’s range is top 10%, or 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo): 7%
Total pot size: $1600
EV given scenario: .07*1200+.93*-400 = -$288
Total EV: .01*288 = -$3


Scenario 5: UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Button folds

When UTG folds, UTG+1 knows he can call with a wider range than just AA/KK, so I’ll use the same range I did for UTG earlier on (QQ+,AK). That means with his narrow preflop reraise range, he’s calling 33% of the time. As usual, button folds 75%.

Percentage occurs: 5/6*.33*.75 = 20%
Equity when called: 39%
Total pot size: $862
EV given scenario: .39*462+.61*-400 = -$64
Total EV: .20*-64 = -$13


Scenario 6: UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Button calls

Percentage occurs: 5/6*.33*.25 = 7%
Equity when called (and button calls with top 5% of hands, 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo): 20%
Total pot size: $1216
EV given scenario: .20*816+.80*-400 = -$157
Total EV: .07*-157 = -$11


Scenario 7: UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Button calls

Percentage occurs: 5/6*.66*.25 = 14%
Equity when called (and button calls with top 5% of hands, 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo): 46%
Total pot size: $862
EV given scenario: .46*462+.54*-400 = -$4
Total EV: .14*-4 = -$1


Sum of all Total EV’s: 48 – 6 – 3 – 3 – 13 – 11 – 1 = +$11

Edit: I realize I missed the scenario for UTG calls and Button calls, but it shouldn't be large enough to make the decision a fold.

[dtan05]

lol at 70/50 calling range.

[destroBU]

I think those numbers look kind of optimistic. The ranges look too wide, with the exception of the 70/50s calling range being too narrow. That doesn't really matter anyways, because if you add in more crap hands that he's cold-calling the 3-bet with there, those hands will all be hands that he's folding to a push, anyways.

So, I would guess that the actual overall EV is even lower than $11 (especially if you include the UTG+BN call scenario), and the variance on pushing is pretty large. I think that makes this a fold.

[Hattifnatt]

fold.

[surfinillini]

push

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
push

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys give such compelling arguments I'm going to have to spend some time thinking about each

[Kermit]

looks like everyone else said it, but push.

tons of dead money, only two hands that you are worried about, tons of dead money..etc..etc..there ranges are wide enough, tos of dead money.

[bustowithnobra]

I would advocate a push with A's or K's here, because it looks obvious you are going to get a call. But with AK thats not suited, I think a call is the best, maybe even a fold. If and ace or K flops, you can bet it, and I can guarantee you in your average 2/4 game, you will get a call from 10-KK, at least on the flop. I think the FE is so little here that you are getting it in as an underdog a huge amount of the time, and you probably are 50/50 to be under 4:1.

[G_Dollaz]

are you guys really thinking of pushing here? it's not a steal and a re-steal. it's UTG and UTG+1 3 betting. best case is if everyone folds we win $110. it's not worth it here, fold and wait for a better spot. I don't think it's remotely close to a push.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
are you guys really thinking of pushing here? it's not a steal and a re-steal. it's UTG and UTG+1 3 betting. best case is if everyone folds we win $110. it's not worth it here, fold and wait for a better spot. I don't think it's remotely close to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG is 28/22. UTG1 is 30/25. Button plays 70% of his hands! It's definitely not a clear fold.