Meh spot

[woodguy]

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Sometimes I wonder about just taking a -cEV approach in these situations of calling for set value. Yes, 7/8 times we lose 800 chips and have 5400 instead of 6200, but does that really change our equity in the tournament much (this is not a rhetorical question)?

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I was thinking about that too......

[woodguy]

Thanks Don interesting conclusions.

[DonT77]

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One of you math guys can hit me over the head for saying this, if you like.

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how 'bout I hit you over the head anyway? j/k

I guess I missed that we were only calling 800 of 6200, so yes we have odds to draw to a set (5400 behind with 3250 in the pot ~ 10.5:1 implied odds) - I don't mind a call here, and yes I agree that resultant stack sizes should weigh heavily in our decision in cases like this.

call>fold>push

[Beachman42]

If by "gross" you mean weak/tight, then yeah, I agree. It seems like I'm always trying to see a cheap show down in this situation.

Also, it seems like I'm mad 7/8ths of the time I just call in this situation. Maybe UCLA's reason is why I do it so so often . . .

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

If by "gross" you mean weak/tight, then yeah, I agree. It seems like I'm always trying to see a cheap show down in this situation.

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Yeah, you are giving up a ton of value by not letting him bet first.

Yes it *may* tie him to the pot with just overcards, but that's a good result, not a bad one as he will only draw out 25% of the time, and if you are beat he's calling regardless.

edit: and you also redraw out on him 8% of the time

Too much given up by open jamming the flop.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Crispy]

I think there are a few important factors that tie into our decision. Depending on how the big stack is playing, he could be playing pretty loose making UTG raising with low PP, KJo, higher marginal hands etc. I would take this into consideration along with the fact he may or may not have you probably dominated. If he has been playing looser preflop, I like to push it all in. If he has been playing tighter, well then it depends if you feel like calling and c/r on all non AKQ flops. Generally the tighter the player, I will weigh more to the final option which is folding. This is ok too if you feel that you are always slightly ahead or way behind.

[Mr.Poker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

with your relatively small stack, i wonder if, even if this play wasnt +cEV, it would still be worth shoving. are you really going to find a better spot than this in the next few orbits while you still have fold equity?

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Shoving 15BB's over any LP raise in the next 4 hands is going to be very +EV too, lots of fold equity there. I am very comfortable playing smallish stacks and not being in a panic.

I really think that pushing any two over random LP raiser is a better spot than a medium pair against a UTG raise.

Regards,
Woodguy

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I think this is a great post.

I really hate pushing into UTG raisers who are not folding and taking whatever narrow equity advantage I may have. I would much prefer to fold this hand and push with any 2 over LP raisers where I have FE and a much higher equity against their opening range. (hope this makes sense as im very tired)

Also, in regards to calling for set value and whether it changes our equity in the tournament - I will sometimes make -EV calls when short stacked if (1) it doesnt alter my flexibility zone i.e. fold equity, reraise FE (2) it doesnt really change my tournament equity. I think you can be justified in making these calls sometimes in order to get 'lucky' and get something going in a tournament. The line between this and spewing is pretty fine though. I would use this sometimes when I have an M of around 7 or 8 and have a hand like 89s in position where I dont have the implied odds to hit but it makes little difference to my strategic position if I fold PF or call and fold on the flop when I miss.

[registrar]

I haven't read the replies but if we are assuming UTG is a good player, and I'd be databasing him to find out, he's not raising with the plan of folding to a BB push from a player he's seen resteal a few times.

And a stop and go isn't good because there's no flop that he folds TT on.

So I don't think we're finding any fold equty pre- or post-flop.

So it's simply a question of ranges and tournament strategy (in some senses). We can push, it will be close, possibly +EV. He's in there, and calling with 77+ and AJs+.

The other possibility is to see a flop (play poker [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] - I've never said that before). Be prepared to go broke with undercards, fold two overcards, check call unless things get grotty.

I can fold here too.

[registrar]

Always good to be late to the party and good to note that my firm line of either folding, calling or pushing is the general consensus.

Having read the replies about set value etc. I think calling is best. There is also the additional equity here in that UTG raisers hate being called and, unless he's real good, he is somewhat more likely to make a mistake if you call and then check the flop in the dark.

[0evg0]

i may suck at some stuff, but i got like a pokerstove calc in my head because when it comes to preflop decisions like this i am always spot on. and im still saying this is a shove. against the range we're still +, even if it is marginal. and then throw in the xx% of the time UTG is doing something besides exactly what we expect, and we're in even better shape.

if this was deeper into the tourney and $EV calcs made even a BIT more difference then i'd say fold, but at this point it's a shove