77 Stars 320 Early---Flop Decision

[0evg0]

i dunno, its confusing.

3bet shove is best because we are like even money against his range right now + he'll fold a good chunk of stuff to a shove further increasing our EV. if we see a turn he'll very rarely fold when he's ahead, rarely pay off when he's behind, and we lost a shitton of equity when we whiff

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
i dunno, its confusing.

3bet shove is best because we are like even money against his range right now + he'll fold a good chunk of stuff to a shove further increasing our EV. if we see a turn he'll very rarely fold when he's ahead, rarely pay off when he's behind, and we lost a shitton of equity when we whiff

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good post for the reason to bet-3bet.

In this spot I do not like his line because a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] may smooth call our flop bet leaving us lost on a blank turn and folding the best hand too often. (I prefer a check raise under normal circumstances and a check fold against this over bet)

That said, evg's explanation for the bet - 3bet is spot on

[BPA234]

[ QUOTE ]
BPA,
you have a couple of problems with your line of thinking.

1. While you are a slight favorite to win the hand if your assumptions are correct, you are not enough of a favorite. If he folds the hand now, he will be making a mistake as the money in the pot would make it correct for him to call.

2. While you may be a favorite now. If you brick the turn (which you will the majority of the time) you are now a dog. So what's the plan then, after putting in 25% of the effective stacks on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]


1. I agree.

2. I understand the optimal line approach. I think that part of the reason 3-bet shoving is optimal is because it possesses a shred of FE. Winning the 600 chips on the flop as a 52% favorite is preferable to losing 1000 chips to a brick on a check fold turn or river.

In this case, after the villain defines his hand with his overbet, I have 14 real outs. But, I believe I also have 9 outs from the board pairing and possibly 2-outs if an overcard to his PP falls that I can easily represent on the turn or if the action goes to the river without villain shoving the turn.

For me, if I get allin on the flop, and lets face it, anyone overbetting that pot is definitely going to be allin on a 3-bet shove or call the ck rse all-in, I am going to lose the hand 48% of the time. Whereas check calling the flop gives me half the deck twice to win the hand.

On the flop, I can flip a coin at what will ultimately be 1:1 as 52% favorite or I can reduce my variance and win this hand unimproved on the turn or river. If I am as fully committed to the hand as I would be getting allin on the flop, a brick turn for me is irrelevant.

If I am totally wrong here, I can accept that.

[adanthar]

you just hit your close to perfect card. after you went to such lengths to justify how you can take away the pot later, how'd it work out for you?

this whole thread is just weird. okay fine you're a tiny favorite over exactly black aces. how about AdKx, 99, or 87, all of which a fish can definitely have here?

also, when he does have black aces here, do you think he usually shoves the turn on a diamond, and if not, what are your implied odds in this hand?

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
If I am as fully committed to the hand as I would be getting allin on the flop, a brick turn for me is irrelevant.

If I am totally wrong here, I can accept that.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it wouldn't be irrelevant to the Villain. You need to stop assuming you know what he's going to do/how he's going to act.

Sorry, but you're very misguided here.