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#41
09-10-2005, 04:12 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
[ QUOTE ]
you show a 23K graph to "prove" that the games are still good? [/ QUOTE ] + stretch = i'm a good player and the games are still good - stretch = look at these horrible down-swings you can have even if you're as good as me 
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#42
09-10-2005, 04:28 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
I'm willing to lay heavy odds that your game changed drastically between then and now. No way on earth a 3bb long term winner can have that downswing....You must have been a much smaller winner back then.
One other thing comes to mind though. What is your SD/100?
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#43
09-10-2005, 04:38 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
And just for the record other posters -- 3bb winners don't have substantial enough tilt to account for 650bb downswings. Assuming OP is telling the complete truth about his winrate after 500k hands, we can ignore tilt as a major factor.
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#44
09-10-2005, 07:15 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
[ QUOTE ]
And just for the record other posters -- 3bb winners don't have substantial enough tilt to account for 650bb downswings. Assuming OP is telling the complete truth about his winrate after 500k hands, we can ignore tilt as a major factor. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't true at all. A 3bb/100 winner might play great when things are going good but have a tilt threshhold where they absolutely lose it after they lose a certain number of BB's. Just because someone has eliminated tilt as an everyday problem doesn't mean they won't ever be affected by it again.
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#45
09-10-2005, 07:16 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
[ QUOTE ]
No way on earth a 3bb long term winner can have that downswing [/ QUOTE ] Math says it's possible, just extremely unlikely. This guy could be the lottery winner of losers.
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#46
09-10-2005, 07:30 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
"This isn't true at all. A 3bb/100 winner might play great when things are going good but have a tilt threshhold where they absolutely lose it after they lose a certain number of BB's. Just because someone has eliminated tilt as an everyday problem doesn't mean they won't ever be affected by it again."
Unfortunately, this is exactly right. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] -Michael
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#47
09-10-2005, 07:55 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
[ QUOTE ]
I dont get this, what does one gain by bitching about downswings ? [/ QUOTE ] Nothing, except pity from other posters and a lot of "keep at it" inspirational posts. At the same time, the forum gains nothing. So, if you only post when you need pity and don't post advice or questionable hands, you are not helping the forum at all. That is what I was saying.
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#49
09-10-2005, 08:33 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And just for the record other posters -- 3bb winners don't have substantial enough tilt to account for 650bb downswings. Assuming OP is telling the complete truth about his winrate after 500k hands, we can ignore tilt as a major factor. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't true at all. A 3bb/100 winner might play great when things are going good but have a tilt threshhold where they absolutely lose it after they lose a certain number of BB's. Just because someone has eliminated tilt as an everyday problem doesn't mean they won't ever be affected by it again. [/ QUOTE ] Are you telling me that there are 5bb and 6bb winners out there who end up being only 3bb winners because of tilt? I don't think so. There are tons of strong players who aren't winners for the simple fact that they can't play the same way when the cards are against them. Then there are others who aren't phased in the least either way. That quality coupled with excellent play is what makes up a 3bb winner. If the OP's tilt makes up for a significant portion of his downswing, then there should be some 5bb and 6bb winners out there. Haven't heard of any yet, and I personally know several players that aren't the least bit affected by ANY run of bad luck.
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#50
09-10-2005, 08:48 AM
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Re: 650BB down swing for a winning player?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No way on earth a 3bb long term winner can have that downswing [/ QUOTE ] Math says it's possible, just extremely unlikely. This guy could be the lottery winner of losers. [/ QUOTE ] Math says it's possible to get rivered on every hand from now until 2007....you or I will never see that in our lifetimes. No matter how bad he ran, we would have seen some sort of downswing like this from a lesser winner or a break even player long before we would from a 3bb winner. In September of 2004, I had two $10,000 downswings as a 1bb 15/30 winner. Worst run anyone anyone I've talked to has heard of. Fortunately, I got both back within a week each. And my SD/100 is only 15bb in full 15/30 games. The poster's downswing is twice as bad as either one of those as a 3bb winner. How many sigmas of an event are we talking about? 6? When is the last time you saw even a 4 sigma event in your life? Just keeping things in perspective.
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