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#41
12-12-2006, 02:41 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
No way. I'm shocked if Blue Lipton has a hand here. He doesn't complete with a 3 at 15/30. He raises with a hand at 15/30. He's making a play. Good players don't make goofy, obvious min-check-raises in this spot with a 3. He's mediocre FYI, and I'd be very surprised if he has it. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts exactly. I can't find a hand that he would complete with p/f that has a 3. His re-stab on the flop looks like a play. His raise on the turn indicates a T or a Q or maybe two pair of some sort (44-88??). If you think about it, what are the odds that he has a 3 since there are already three of them out???? That's for those that are sure he has K3, A3, J3, etc. Laying down to the turn bet is like knowing he has 44 but folding because you are afraid of a 4 hitting the river.... So, Wuwei??? Oh Wuwei? What are your thoughts and what happened (for the results-oriented crowd)? Slacka 
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#42
12-12-2006, 02:50 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
If you think about it, what are the odds that he has a 3 since there are already three of them out???? That's for those that are sure he has K3, A3, J3, etc. Laying down to the turn bet is like knowing he has 44 but folding because you are afraid of a 4 hitting the river.... [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't make any sense although I'm not sure if you are serious?
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#43
12-12-2006, 03:30 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
If villian had AQ and posted this hand from the SB I don't think anyone would disagree much with his line. [/ QUOTE ] i would. i would check the turn with AQ against a winning player
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#44
12-12-2006, 03:49 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
If you think about it, what are the odds that he has a 3 since there are already three of them out???? That's for those that are sure he has K3, A3, J3, etc. Laying down to the turn bet is like knowing he has 44 but folding because you are afraid of a 4 hitting the river.... [ QUOTE ] This doesn't make any sense although I'm not sure if you are serious? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Given that three of the 3's are gone, it's 5% that he has a 3. Same odds that if he had 44, he would hit a four on the river. People! The set is more than a 92% favorite against all hands on the turn but QQ or TT (discounting the 5% chance he has X3). If you can put villain on exactly one of these two hands, then go ahead and fold. Otherwise, get it all in the middle. Now that's SlackerMath.....
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#45
12-12-2006, 04:09 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If villian had AQ and posted this hand from the SB I don't think anyone would disagree much with his line. [/ QUOTE ] i would. i would check the turn with AQ against a winning player [/ QUOTE ] I would never c/mr the flop with AQ. This is one of those weird spots because no decent player is c/mring this flop is out a three, but no decent player is c/mring this flop.
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#47
12-12-2006, 04:14 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
Given that three of the 3's are gone, it's 5% that he has a 3. Same odds that if he had 44, he would hit a four on the river. [/ QUOTE ] There is some serious error in this logic and it is the same logic that results in so many players stacking off with A5 on an A high flop. -btw this has nothing to do with what I would do in this hand and is sort of a thread hijack.
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#48
12-12-2006, 04:36 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
Given that three of the 3's are gone, it's 5% that he has a 3. Same odds that if he had 44, he would hit a four on the river. [/ QUOTE ] We are not in random two anymore Toto.
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#49
12-12-2006, 05:08 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Given that three of the 3's are gone, it's 5% that he has a 3. Same odds that if he had 44, he would hit a four on the river. [/ QUOTE ] We are not in random two anymore Toto. [/ QUOTE ] haha i liked this.
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#50
12-12-2006, 05:14 PM
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Re: it\'s been a while... trips, no kicker
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If villian had AQ and posted this hand from the SB I don't think anyone would disagree much with his line. [/ QUOTE ] i would. i would check the turn with AQ against a winning player [/ QUOTE ] I would never c/mr the flop with AQ. [/ QUOTE ] It could be a cheaper way of finding out where you stand than check-calling the whole way - provided you plan to not go broke if your minraise is called or reraised. As far as bad villians playing A3,K3 this way, bad villians will play all kinds of hands this way - including AA, QQ, TT, who knows. Yes we should probably still fold, but you can't say someone's bad and put them on a narrow range ever IMO.
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