UFC 65 11/18/06

[wiper]

[ QUOTE ]
your gf = keeper.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, it's pretty awesome not having to justify spending the money every month on ppv's...she's just as pumped for most of them as i am...

actual conversation before hughes/penn:

her: did you bet on the fights yet?

me: yes.

her: on the hughes fight?

me: yes.

her: did you bet on him?

me: yes.

her: you probably don't want to bet $5 on penn against me, do you?

me: no.

she's been talking about liddell/ortiz for weeks now, and it's still more than a month away!

[Performify]

Taking the current odds from Pinnacle at the time of this post's writing...

<u>Brandon Vera vs Frank Mir</u>
Brandon Vera -312
Frank Mir +282
Brandon "The Truth" Vera is now 7-0 in MMA with wins at UFC 57 over Justin Eilers and at UFC 60 over a then well-regarded Assuerio Silva. Mir has heavy hands and great ground skills, but has had terrible conditioning ever since coming back from a motorcycle accident which left him with a severely broken femur and a crushed pelvis. While there's always a very very very longshot that the "old" Frank Mir comes back and slips in a submission on Vera, the reality is that Vera is significantly better on his feet, is no slouch on the ground, and is significantly quicker, more explosive, and just overall a much better athlete. Vera has been very vocal about his plans to use a significant number of leg kicks to wear down Mir, and there’s no reason to think that strategy won’t work here. A pretty safe bet on Vera with a finish by strikes in the second round.

<u>Antoni Hardonk vs Sherman Pendergarst</u>
Antoni Hardonk -267
Sherman Pendergarst +247
Antoni Hardonk is a Dutch kickboxer trained under K1’s Ernesto Hoost, but has been training jiu-jitsu under Rickson Gracie jiu-jitsu in LA for the past couple years, and he has achieved the rank of blue belt. Hardonk doesn’t really have any significant opponents to date, and holds a 4-2 MMA record. His last three fights were in K1 in mid-2004 which he lost by UD, and a victory over Hammer House’s Wes Sims in November 2004, and then a win at Bushido Europe in late 2005. Sherman "The Tank" Pendergarst comes from WFL and cage fighting, with a 7-3 MMA record and no significant opponents except a loss to Justin Eilers at “Combat in the Cage 2” back in May of this year. Sherman has a background in college wrestling and trains with Militech. Hardonk was supposed to fight Brad Imes here, and Pendergarst is taking the fight on two week’s notice – he was already training for a fight in December, so he’s not coming in untrained entirely though. These are two pretty unknowns here so this isn’t a fight to load up on. If this fight was in December, with Pendergarst having full time to prepare, he’d be a strong pick. As it is, I think I’ll take the guy with the wrestling background and Miletich in his corner, despite my clear love of the Gracie camp. Pendergarst by first round TKO, ground and pound baby. Risky bet though, Hardonk could catch The Tank shooting, The Tank could decide he’s going to stand and trade and lose there, or Hardonk’s BJJ could result in a first round sub. But despite all those ways of winning its hard to bet on an unknown named LOL_Hardonkaments.

<u>Alessio Sakara vs Drew McFedries</u>
Alessio Sakara -483
Drew McFedries +433
“Legionarius” Sakara has a 10-4 MMA record, 2-1 in the UFC. We’ve seen him at UFC 55 were he got kicked in the junk (and the fight was stopped, No Contest), at UFC 57 where he took Elvis Sinosic to a win by UD, beating him up pretty bad along the way, and then last saw him get first round triangle’d by Dean Lister at UFC 60 on the undercard of Hughes/Gracie. Sakara is a strong boxer, with a pro boxing record of 6-2. McFedries is a Miletich fighter with a 4-1 MMA record: he opened his career with a loss to Nate Quarry way back in 2001, won a fight in 2002 and two in 2003, and then took a three year break to return at Extreme Challenge 71 with a win. McFedries normally fights at 185 and is fighting here at 205, and took the fight on roughly two week’s notice. Sakara is a big favorite here for a very good reason. McFedries will certainly have a puncher’s chance, but not much of one. Both of these two should stand and trade on the feet in what should be an exciting bout. Sakara will open with his dangerous leg kicks to set up his boxing ability, and we should see a first round KO here.

<u>Hector Ramirez vs James Irvin</u>
Hector Ramirez -153
James Irvin +143
James Irvin will always be remembered as the man with the infamous flying knee KO of Terry Martin at the beginning of the second round of their match at UFC 54. This will be Irvin’s sixth fight in 2006: he’s 11-3 overall, but 2-2 in 2006 (one match was a no contest) with a first round loss to Stephan Bonnar at Ultimate Fight Night 3 in January, and a follow-up loss to at WEC 19 to Lodune Sincaid. Irvin has trained in Gracie BJJ and in Muay Thai, and is fighting on his home turf as he’s from Sacramento. Ramirez is no slouch, ranked third in King of the Cage at light heavyweight and holding a 6-1-1 MMA record. Ramirez is a solid wrestler with heavy hands and trains with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Ramirez will likely look to take this fight to the ground and impose his will, but probably won’t be able to finish Irvin, certainly not with submission. Irvin should have the edge in conditioning and if he can survive the first round I look for Irvin to win with a late TKO, say third round after Ramirez gasses.

<u>Joe Stevenson vs Dokonjonosuke Mishima</u>
Joe Stevenson -228
Dokonjonosuke Mishima +208
Mishima is 17-4-2 in MMA with a win over Marcus Aurelio in late 2004 and big losses to Yves Edwards at Bushido 7 in mid 2005 and a loss to Ralph Gracie back in 2003. Joe “Daddy” Stevenson is 25-7 in MMA, we last saw him with a win over Yves Edwards at UFC 61 in July in that ridiculously bloody bout. Mishima is a grappler primarily from Shooto with good ground skills, but outside of a recent submission win over the barely-.500 fighter “Crazy Horse” Bennett at Bushido 9 in September 2005, Mishima hasn’t won a fight by stoppage since July 2003. On first glance these odds looked somewhat attractive, but on deeper reflection I don’t expect Mishima will have anything deal with Joe Stevenson’s strength and quickness. Stevenson is obviously a very strong wrestler but has submission skills himself, and Mishima is going to have trouble putting something on Stevenson that Joe won’t be able to defend or power through. We know “MMAth” doesn’t always work, but Mishima losing to The Crow in 2005 and Joe Daddy dropping him in 2006, I do expect the edge to Stevenson. Mishima is on the downside of his career here and I don’t expect him to prevail. I think this is a fight handpicked to build up Stevenson. Joe Daddy by second round TKO, ground and pound.

<u>Tim Sylvia vs Jeff Monson</u>
Tim Sylvia -253
Jeff Monson +233
Let me start by saying: Man, I hate Timmy. Sylvia is 22-2 with his only two losses to the in-shape Frank Mir (the infamous arm breakage) and the first fight with Andrei Arlovski. Sylvia has won his last five fights. Monson has a 22-5 MMA record and is 4-2 in the UFC, but is coming in riding a very impressive 16 win streak, with his last loss back in 2002 to Forrest Griffin in the first WEFC (World Extreme Fighting Championships). Most recently we’ve seen Monson choke out Branden Lee Hinkle at UFC 57, defeat Marcio Cruz by split decision at UFC 59, and first round TKO Anthony Perosh at UFC 61.

Much has been made of the height difference here, so I’m not going to go in to it in depth, except to say a couple things. Monson looked like crap against Marcio Cruz, letting Cruz keep him at arms length with really weak jabs and leg kicks. If he does the same thing against Sylvia he’s obviously a dead man. But my opinion is that Monson stayed standing with Cruz because Cruz is such a strong jiu-jitsu fighter (he and Monson had fought several times in grappling contests) so he figured he’d keep it standing and look to win on the feet where he had an edge albeit a very slim one. Hopefully Monson is smart enough to know he can’t let Sylvia do the same. So hopefully we see Monson close the gap with Sylvia and use his height as an advantage: its really hard to punch down at a close opponent with this type of height disparity: since you can’t use downwards elbows, and Sylvia probably won’t want to throw knees from close as it gives Monson an opportunity to throw off his balance and/or grab a leg. Ultimately, I think if Monson can manage to take this to the ground, he can snap Timmy in half. Here’s hoping we get to see that happen… man I hate Timmy.

<u>Matt Hughes vs Georges St. Pierre</u>
Matt Hughes -127
Georges St. Pierre +117
GSP is a monster, no question. In his last fight with Hughes he was very tough for Matt to control. Both of these fighters are well rounded for sure, and if you stacked up all of their opponents together, they both beat both of their opponents list most all of the time. But when they match up together, its about the edges. I see Hughes as an edge in wrestling and control once it hits the ground. Not a major advantage, based on the elusiveness GSP showed in their last match, but still when this fight goes to the ground, Hughes gets an advantage. If GSP can keep the fight standing, if he can force Hughes to trade, then he can certainly win this fight. So I’m certainly not saying Hughes is a mortal lock or anything else. But I think Hughes wins this fight around 67% of the time (2/3 fights) which goes to a -200 line and means I see tremendous value in the current line of Hughes around -135 (which translates to Hughes wins 57% of the time). Its obvious that the line has moved the opposite direction of what I expected it to do, though. I recommended grabbing a big handful of Hughes around -145 where it opened, and obviously quite a bit of money has moved in on GSP. Mine is on Hughes. Despite how bad BJ Penn made Hughes look for the first two rounds, I think Hughes is at the pinnacle of his career here. This should be a great matchup and heavily anticipated by yours truly. I think Hughes wins a close decision fight, probably three round to two.

<u>Nick Diaz vs Gleison Tibau</u>
Nick Diaz -478
Gleison Tibau +428
Diaz, a black-belt student of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, now sports a 13-6 MMA record with a spread of three UFC losses (Ultimate Fighter 2 finale vs Diego Sanchez in late 2005, UD loss to Joe Riggs at UFC 57 in February 2006, UD loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 59 two months later. Diaz then returned to UFC 62 defeating Josh Neer in August. Tibau is a BJJ practitioner fighting with American Top Team coming to the US from Brazil, holding an 11-3 pro MMA record. Tibau is largely an unknown here, and given Diaz’s recent struggles I think there’s always a possibility that the two guys take the fight to the ground and Tibau pulls out a submission. I’m not willing to lay close to 5:1 on a fighter who is struggling versus a complete unknown with a BJJ background and a solid record. So I’m going to recommend a tiny play here against Diaz. Can't argue staying away here, either, but these are full card picks so if I've got to make a call, its Tibau.

<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks [*] Brandon Vera -312 : 9.36u to win 3u[*] Sherman Pendergarst +247 : .5u to win 1.235u[*] Alessio Sakara -483 : 2.415u to win .5u[*] James Irvin +143 : 1u to win 1.43u[*] Joe Stevenson -228 : 2.28u to win 1u[*] Jeff Monson +233 : .5u to win 1.165u[*] Matt Hughes -127 : 2.54u to win 2u[*] Gleison Tibau : +428 : .25u to win 1.05u[/list]
The first four plays, Vera, Pendergarst, Sakara and Stevenson would be those that i'd see as strongly +EV. Monson is a longer shot underdog call. Hughes I see as a tremendous value but i'm surprised to see where the money has ended up. Tibau is a pure value play that you can probably stay away from unless you want the full card covered...

[swope]

[ QUOTE ]
But despite all those ways of winning its hard to bet on an unknown named LOL_Hardonkaments.


[/ QUOTE ]

dying.

btw i agree that stevenson will probably pound out mishima. thats one of several parlay hedges i plan on making, eg:

1 unit on mishima
.5 units on Sakara/Vera/Stevenson

[goodsamaritan]

Weighins starting now

http://sports.yahoo.com/

Then click on link

[vexel77]

When is the weigh in? How does mir look?

[goodsamaritan]

Mir just weighed in at 254. He didn't have a 6 pack, but he did look pretty good. Definitely nothing like the pregnant pic I posted earlier. I tried to get a screenshot but I couldnt cause it was streaming video. Pics will prob be on UFC.com soon.

[Tuds75]

thanks for the update


tuds

[apple11]

I stacked up on gsp wish me luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[goodsamaritan]

Performify,

Good writeups as usual. I won't beat the GSP-Hughes fight to death anymore. I disagreed about Hughes being +EV inside -200, but -127 may be +EV.

I like your pick against Diaz. I admittedly don't know much about Tibau other than that he is a BJJ guy, but I like this fight becuase it seems like exactly the type of style matchup that will result in a decision. Since both he and Diaz are BJJ guys, I see this fight going to the ground, but neither of them getting a sub or finish. And once a fight goes into the judges hands, anything can happen. Diaz definitely has the advantage, but it wouldnt be hard for a hungry new fighter like Tibau to steal two rounds in the eyes of two judges. FWIW, Tibau looked insanely ripped at the weighins.

The Irvin fight I'm not so sure about. We know that Irvin's got really good stand up and conditioning, but his ground game was suspect in the past. Some guys that he trains with have been saying that he's improved his ground game a lot, but who knows how accurate that is. The fact that Ramirez has a lot of wrestling experience would make me worry about this fight ending up like the Marrero-Kongo fight from the last UFC. Ultimately I feel like I don't have enough info to really pick either guy.

The Stevenson fight I agree with completely. I see Mishima getting outwrestled and being pounded against the cage. Probably a UD for Stevenson.

As I mentioned before, Mir looked pretty good in the weighins:


Now I know this isn't a bodybuilding competition, but I think this is at least some evidence that the "old" Mir might be back. Vera is definitely still a substantial favorite, but Mir is too much of a wild card at this point for me to recommend betting against him.

The Sylvia fight is really tough to call cause we've never seen Sylvia tested against a fighter like Monson. Tim's sprawl is very good, but we've never really seen much of how he can work off his back IF he is put there. Nevertheless, I have visions of this fight ending up like Chuck v. Babalu II, though I don't feel too strongly about it.

So I guess after all of that the only bet I really like is Stevenson. Then some light action of Tibau and Sylvia

[Performify]

Thanks for posting the Mir picks.

Good to see he looks healthy, but I still think he gets worked pretty hard...