Tips for the new sports bettor - Page 5

Performify · #41 10-11-2006, 01:59 PM

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BTW, for those of us who are still looking to sign up with sportsbooks, can we get a stickied thread discussing which places have banned/plan to ban doing business with U.S. residents?

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The UIGEA legislation will likely have zero effect on online sports betting.

Sports betting is already dubiously legal at best in the US due to the Wire Act. The UIGEA legislation was to try to close the gap on Poker which wasn't explicitly covered in the Wire Act.

No sports book that I'm aware of has changed its policy in the face of the litigation, and to the best of my knowledge that won't change on Friday or on Monday.

So all that said, I'd keep the same advice as always: only deal with top-rated books anyways, and you shouldn't have a problem.

If this situation does change, then we'll certainly build a thread on it.

dankhank · #42 10-11-2006, 02:10 PM

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No sports book that I'm aware of has changed its policy in the face of the litigation, and to the best of my knowledge that won't change on Friday or on Monday.

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bet365 closed to american customers.

yesterday, the public, parent company of VIP, Leisure & Gaming plc, sold all of its sportsbooks to private company(s). today it was confirmed that nothing would change for american customers as a result. one family book, nine, announced last week it would relocate to curacao from costa rica.

as you say all others appear to be holding firm

iggymcfly · #43 10-11-2006, 02:53 PM

Mansion's safe then? I thought I heard they were shaky so I cashed out my balance, but I suppose that could just be the poker room. Oh well, not a bad idea to wait a week or two anyway.

Back on the main topic, I think that it's very important to pay attention to the price you get, especially in sports like baseball with no real "spread" to take either side of. The number of bets where you'll get a huge difference in expectation between the spread and ML is minimal for football, but there are certainly cases where you should bet the side you think will lose.

For instance, I gave the Tigers a 35-40% of chance of beating the Yankees in a 5-game series and still happily wagered 3 units at +270. Obviously, it's a little results-oriented to say that it was a good play just because it worked, but I do think there is a lot of value to be had in that kind of situation.

If I were going to give one tip to novice sports bettors though, it would be "bet what you know". I know college football best, and I know it from watching a lot of games and analysis, almost exclusively on major college teams. A lot of times, I've found lines on Sun Belt games that appeared to be way off, but it was only because my incomplete analysis of them led me to faulty conclusions, and caused me to wager a lot more on those games than I should have. Remember, a 4 or 5 point edge with hours of confident analysis behind it can be much more reliable than a perceived 17 point edge on something where you're ill-informed.

YoureToast · #44 10-11-2006, 03:05 PM

good post performity.

Another tip for NFL players: Get DirecTV and Superfan and watch the 25 minute replay of some or all of the games played that week. This is a new and incredible resource. The great thing about watching a game is that you can recognize strengths and weaknesses of teams and can really understand why a team won or lost - whereas just looking at the box score and highlights may give you misimpressions.

Also, pay attention to matchups and injuries. Note that an injury to a QB probably won't be as significant to your decision as an injury to an undervalued middle linebacker or unknown starting offensive guard -- because key injuries will always be accounted for in the line.

Jibba · #45 10-11-2006, 03:22 PM

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if you're getting good enough odds, do you accept the fact that you may lose more games than you win (while possibly making money)?

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Absolutely! This is the cornerstone of successful sports betting. I have written extensively in the past about selecting bets that have value in the line and NOT trying to pick the winner. This is what seperates long term winners from losers. See my post "Who beat the moneyline?" from the other day. The KC Royals only won 62 games this year but produced more units than any other team. The Yankees won 97 but ended up with a decent negative. Value is what wins in the long term.

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Thanks. I think I glanced at it briefly but didn't really understand what you meant. Now that I have a better understanding it makes a hell of a lot more sense.

Jibba · #46 10-11-2006, 03:25 PM

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For whatever reason, this reminded me of something I read about a casino accidentally offering 80-1 on a certain sicbo bet rather than 60-1. Gamblers flew in overnight for the affair. Check out "Pricing Mistakes" in thie article -- http://gaming.unlv.edu/subject/casinomath.html

edited to fix link -P

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Interesting read. Thanks.

checkmate36 · #47 10-11-2006, 06:39 PM

Favorite Topic was just toggled!

Thanks everyone for taking the time.

reachrevolver · #48 11-07-2006, 04:24 AM

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Remember, a 4 or 5 point edge with hours of confident analysis behind it can be much more reliable than a perceived 17 point edge on something where you're ill-informed.

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No one, unless there is a mistake line, has anything close to a 17 point edge on any game unless the line is a total mistake. The best bettors in the world have at MOST a 3-4 point edge in football.

paperchamp · #49 11-07-2006, 12:38 PM

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good post performity.

Another tip for NFL players: Get DirecTV and Superfan and watch the 25 minute replay of some or all of the games played that week. This is a new and incredible resource. The great thing about watching a game is that you can recognize strengths and weaknesses of teams and can really understand why a team won or lost - whereas just looking at the box score and highlights may give you misimpressions.

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I swear by this. There are a lot of things that you miss even if you watch a game normally because the action has so many breaks and the announcers can sometimes slant your attention.

thing85 · #50 11-07-2006, 12:53 PM

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Remember, a 4 or 5 point edge with hours of confident analysis behind it can be much more reliable than a perceived 17 point edge on something where you're ill-informed.

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No one, unless there is a mistake line, has anything close to a 17 point edge on any game unless the line is a total mistake. The best bettors in the world have at MOST a 3-4 point edge in football.

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Obviously. That's why the person would be ill-informed. It's a "perceived 17-pt edge."