To hedgers: Adding insult to injury - Page 5

108 · #1 09-11-2006, 05:20 AM

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Thank you for putting this down clearly. My only qualm with your logic is that this Mansion gift was not a repeated trial, like the repeated birthday gift in your analysis.

If someone offered me a million $1 coinflips where they payout $1.1 to a win, I'd wager the full amount every time right?

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Glad you took the time to read it, and think about it. And yes, Mansion only offered one event, as opposed to my various birthday gift examples above. After laying the PItt wager (before the game) -- with the opportunity to hedge in any amount you wish, or not hedge, you have the choice of accepting the year #2 gift, or the year #1 gift. That's what I was trying to get across. Most would always choose the second year gift, and hedge to one degree or another. I guess I should've presented the gift analogy as a CHOICE between the year 1 and year 2 gift, i.e., the same choice you make when you hedge or do not hedge.

And yes, if you could have a million $1 coin flips, paying $1.1 when you won, you'd of course jump on it every time. Problem with Pitt scenario is that you only get the 1.1 - 1 opportunity once, which is why everyone wouldn't wager the entire $475 (and thus most choose to hedge some amount).

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This can't be right, two posters agreeing with each other in this thread. Mod! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Ballers83 · #2 09-08-2006, 07:50 PM

I love it. I was going to hedge but I was too lazy to do it. Thank you procrastination

Rev. Good Will · #3 09-10-2006, 11:08 PM

If I had taken that bet, 66% of my roll would have been involved. I'd rather hedge the remaining $ to get SOME sort of boost to my roll.

EDIT- original link served no purpose, and i'm sure had nothing to do with my point

Izverg04 · #4 09-10-2006, 11:19 PM

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If I had taken that bet, 66% of my roll would have been involved. I'd rather hedge the remaining $ to get SOME sort of boost to my roll.

EDIT- original link served no purpose, and i'm sure had nothing to do with my point

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You know, when the OP was talking about 3rd grade reading comprehension, I bet you didn't realize he was talking about you.

BonusMidas · #5 09-10-2006, 11:38 PM

Thought I edited in time. Guess not. I wasnt a fan of the title because I'm one person that hedged.. so I skipped to page 7 without reading everything. Now that I read everything I apologize..

pzhon · #6 09-11-2006, 12:16 AM

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Thought I edited in time. Guess not. I wasnt a fan of the title because I'm one person that hedged.. so I skipped to page 7 without reading everything. Now that I read everything I apologize..

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Apology accepted. Welcome to the forums.

My title was intentionally provocative, but I don't think what I said should have been taken as an insult by people who hedged. I usually don't feel insulted if someone points out a mistake I have made, particularly if it helps me to avoid future mistakes, but it apparently makes some people very defensive.

jrz1972 · #7 09-11-2006, 09:23 AM

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I usually don't feel insulted if someone points out a mistake I have made, particularly if it helps me to avoid future mistakes, but it apparently makes some people very defensive.

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You haven't shown that full hedgers made a mistake. It isn't possible to show that, since complete hedging makes sense for people who are pretty risk-averse.

I don't understand the flame-wars that have broken out between hedgers and non-hedgers. Some people like to gamble, and some people don't. Why is this something that prompts arguments?

Rev. Good Will · #8 09-11-2006, 01:51 AM

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If I had taken that bet, 66% of my roll would have been involved. I'd rather hedge some of the remaining $ to get SOME sort of boost to my roll.

EDIT- original link served no purpose, and i'm sure had nothing to do with my point

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You know, when the OP was talking about 3rd grade reading comprehension, I bet you didn't realize he was talking about you.

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You know, when the OP was talking about 3rd grade reading comprehension, I bet you didn't realize he was talking about you.

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edit - now that I'm defending something I mistyped, I realize that now. my preference is simple. In my situation, $200 dollars is alot of money to have, so therefore I'd rather skim some EV to have free money to spend. I didn't look as this as a gamble, I looked it as a chance to have free money on either outcome, and maybe hit it big. this is all of course assuming I took the bet in the first place (I didn't, I love poker too much). I'll re-read this thread a few times to try to see a flaw in this thinking. Although I should pace myself, I just finished reading "see spot run"

E.Z. · #9 09-11-2006, 02:36 AM

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If you hedged the Mansion Steelers bet, you lost. I'd like to point out that most people who hedged did so incorrectly.

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I just took offense to the 1st post. OP has since changed it to "advantage gamblers" made wrong move.

OP- everyone knows that sports betting is -EV with juice
and blackjack is also -EV online.

if you've never whored blackjack bonuses then try it. and if you think $25 in juice makes hedging wrong in sports betting then you aren't aware of their bonuses.

ever heard the term of "busting a book" ?? perhaps you should do a search and then read your 1st post again and realize how stupid it was.

and saying " you can get those bonuses later" just isn't practical when alot of these people will never bet on sports again!! they opened their ONLY 2 books this last week)

and even 99% of the so-called advantage gamblers don't use every weekly reload at every book.

E.Z. · #10 09-11-2006, 04:22 PM

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If you hedged the Mansion Steelers bet, you lost. I'd like to point out that most people who hedged did so incorrectly.

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I just took offense to the 1st post. OP has since changed it to "advantage gamblers" made wrong move.

OP- everyone knows that sports betting is -EV with juice
and blackjack is also -EV online.

if you've never whored blackjack bonuses then try it. and if you think $25 in juice makes hedging wrong in sports betting then you aren't aware of their bonuses.

ever heard the term of "busting a book" ?? perhaps you should do a search and then read your 1st post again and realize how stupid it was.

and saying " you can get those bonuses later" just isn't practical when alot of these people will never bet on sports again!! they opened their ONLY 2 books this last week)

and even 99% of the so-called advantage gamblers don't use every weekly reload at every book.

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here ya go OP, please respond