simple hand

[deankeaton7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

i guess ill get called by worse queens, an 8, low pair like 22, ace hi, i dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just realized you're probably playing like 35/25 to this point so I like it a lot more than I did an hour ago, but this'd never work for most people reading this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

this makes a load of difference to me as well. I thought the river check was questionable, until I realized hes probably in a ton of pots here.

[reecelights]

[ QUOTE ]
Thr guy limp/called. Doesn't that look like a pp. Couldn't he have a set and be planning to check/raise the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well, but 77 is very unlikely here which means he has to have 1 of the 3 combinations of 88. And of course, we know that Villain flat called the river which skews our opinion.

I do think JJ/TT/99 can limp call this hand preflop and would call to the river on the assumption that Hero is firing a continuation bet with AK and following up to avoid looking weak. I usually check behind myself here on the river, but I think Jason's line points out that it may very well be worth betting the river. I also agree with an earlier comment about betting to force a fold and avoid showing down a QJ preflop raise.

[jason75]

I play quite a bit on party . . . at the lower buy-ins this early, it's actually ++++EV to just put it all in on the flop.

People see it as just another wild bluffer and will call with any sort of crap hand . . . . even hands like AJ, 55, etc are calling here.

As played, you could probably even get more value on the river if you wanted.

BTW - Given it's a party MTT and early, I think trying to read villian is a mistake. Just bet the hand for value.

[Bakes]

All in on the flop? AJ calling? This is a $215 buyin, come on now, you've turned your hand into junk if you do that at any buyin.

[DonT77]

[ QUOTE ]
i guess ill get called by worse queens, an 8, low pair like 22, ace hi, i dunno. and ill basically never get bluff checkraised here. so why not bet? I guess once in a while he has KQ AQ but whatever... i still think my bet has plenty of value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like the river bet a lot more if you had KQ or AQ because I think those two hands make up a large part of his range that would call a river bet. "Worse Queens" are QT and lower - which are probably unlikely given the PF action. For every time he's calling you down with TT/JJ or worse he's got KQ/AQ+ IMO. I think the river bet is close to 0EV, and the decision to value bet or not probably depends on your read of him and your read of how he perceives you.

[mornelth]

Thanks for this thread, we need more of these.

The more I think about it, the more it seems like a razor-thin value bet that many folks don't have the cojones to make.

Thanks to this thread I made 2 value bets on the river this weekend where I would previously check behind and would have won a smaller pot.

P.S. Can you teach Norman Ng how to play? We need more players in our lunch game... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is not "standard"...nothing should be standard for good players, and I would play this way some % of the time, I would limp some % of the time, and fold some % of the time as well


[/ QUOTE ]

Really? What % of the time are you folding QJ suited in the CO behind 1 limper? Mine is 0, and I figured that was standard. I guess if you were just being rhetorical, whatever, I just found that odd. I agree that raising/calling both have about equal pros and cons and either can be correct in a given situation.

I'm probably checking behind on this river, or checking behind the turn to induce a bet from a worse hand on the river. I am not betting all 3 streets without a "call station" read on villain.

[locutus2002]

I'd check behind on the river.

Without a read, I'd make the following assumptions this early on:

1) When villain calls the turn he has a Q or JJ (which will not call a river bet).
2) You are ahead of QT,Q9 and behind AQ,KQ
3) QT, Q9 are less likely because they are more likely to be suited (less combinations).
4) Villain will call with all Qs, and expect to get to showdown for no more than ~T1200 on the river, when he calls the flop.

Even if I've seen villain limping alot of hands, I don't think your ahead by much, and can find a better spot to put chips in.

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]

2) You are ahead of QT,Q9 and behind AQ,KQ


[/ QUOTE ]

That was my initial thought too. But the more I think about it, the more it seems to me that as played - I do not expect the villain to have AQ, KQ on this river very often, if ever. Certainly not AQ since it will most likely have to raise somewhere along the way just to shut out draws / find out where it stands... And this consideration IMO is what makes the river bet +EV, and not all THAT marginal as it would seem.

[locutus2002]

I would expect AQ to block on the river as played, so I think KQ is the most likely and consistent with PF limp and calling all the way down.

Because it's early villain might just be making a mistake, or not be paying too much attention.