Simple AQ hand

[orange]

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Looks fine, value bet the river for sure.

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Agreed. Postflop is played well. Raising this flop is spew usually unless he's a super donkey.

[ilya]

Some baseline calcs that ppl can use as a starting point if they want.


what hands call

99 half the time
TT half the time
JJ half the time
QJ
QT
76 one quarter of the time


88 always
78 always, but only 3 combos cos unlikely
KJ always, but only 4 combos cos unlikely
KT always, but only 4 combos cos unlikely
KQ always, but only 2 combos cos unlikely


fold

2 flush draw hands
99 half the time
TT half the time
JJ half the time
76 three quarters of the time





so, if we bet:

3+3+3+4+4+3 = 20 combos that call us and lose to us

3+3+4+4+2 = 16 combos that calls us and beat us

3+3+3+9+2 = 20 combos that fold



If we check:

we win 40 times
we lose 16 times



so, when we bet $20

we win $61.50 20 times
we win $41.50 20 times
we lose $20 16 times

for a net profit of (1230 + 830 - 320)/56 = $31.07/hand


when we check:

we win $41.50 40 times
we lose $0 16 times

for a net profit of 1660/56 = $29.6/hand

[dardo]

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I'm not sure the small value bet is worth re-opening in this spot

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If you can't find a value bet here, or at least a burning desire to valuebet this river, you have a big leak. BIG. This is where much of the profit comes from in NLHE. River VBs like this.

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That was a "graphic" answer. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

regards,

dardo