20-40 flop decision - Page 5

andyfox · #41 06-22-2006, 05:07 PM

I don't characterize putting in one extra small bet as "too frisky." It's not necessarily what he can beat right now that I'm considering, it's what card that can come off on the turn to which I'd rather be facing a smaller number of opponents than a larger one. The pot's already pretty big and I'm not worrying about saving a small bet, but rather about how best I can save the pot.

andyfox · #42 06-22-2006, 05:12 PM

But you said: "Most of the hands that our opponents are limping with will completely miss this flop, and many of them will fold for one bet."

Whereas Joe said, "Often they are just married to their cards. I heard such descripted player say that he flopped an open ended Royal draw holding Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x x flop last week." Joe was talking about guys calling with very little for two bets.

Bill King · #43 06-22-2006, 05:13 PM

no, i totally understand. I just think against multiple loose opponents and the texture of this board, with two cards to come, you are going to be on the losing side of this more than the winning.

andyfox · #44 06-22-2006, 05:25 PM

I agree you will lose more than you will win. But the pot is $240 (or $260, it's unclear if the big blind called preflop). If you can get the overcards (to your 6s) out, I think it's important to do so. One poster pointed out it's not impossible you might even win the pot right there on the flop.

Passives don't like calling two bets at a time.

andyfox · #45 06-22-2006, 05:30 PM

I agree that M.D. would be in the best position to judge whether a raise would have merit. But he posted here, one assumes, to hear the arguments others would make. You are correct that it's possible these guys would call for two as easily as for one. Hell, some of them might even like the fact that the pot is bigger and be more inclined to call for two than for one.

But it's much more likely that there will be at least one limper who will let his hand go and since a lot of hands these guys could have are likely two overcards to his 6's, I want to try what I can do to save the pot. To me, that means check-raising here.

Bill King · #46 06-22-2006, 05:35 PM

in my experience with a passive player, he might call with a weak K, or even a 5 cold.. and just check call the whole way down. so you could get it heads up and invest wayy too much into a hand that you're in rough shape with.

i just dont like playing small pairs in hands like this unless i make a set. there are really no two safe cards. you may be good now, but chances are that you're in deep trouble by the river unless a 6 falls off.

andyfox · #47 06-22-2006, 05:50 PM

I'm not implying aggression after the flop if you're still facing opposition. Depending on what comes on the turn (and river), who the competition is, what your table presence tells you, and how many of them stay in, discretion might indeed be called for post-flop. (Then again, maybe aggression will be called for; a check-raise on the turn might get out a better hand that called on the flop.)

Hey, I'm less of a fan of smallish pocket pairs than almost anyone I know. But the very fact that there are a lot of unsafe cards that could come on the turn is precisely why I would raise the flop. With $240 in the pot, I'm not giving up here. So that leaves calling or raising, and since I'm not worried about saving $20 in a $240 pot, I raise to give my hand a better chance of holding up when good, to possibly win the pot right there, and to let the button know he's not just going to be able to bet with impunity on the latter streets.

Bill King · #48 06-22-2006, 05:52 PM

right. i am just assuming this game plays as loose as most 20/40 games do, and if so.. there is a huge range of hands that will get there most likely.

its worth trying at least.. and if it comes two cards under 5 you could be good.

disjunction · #49 06-22-2006, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
One poster pointed out it's not impossible you might even win the pot right there on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes! More often than you'd think!

Also: Horserace paradox, horserace paradox, horserace paradox

Okay, now I have to look up and try and remember what "horserace paradox" means.

bernie · #50 06-22-2006, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With this flop if we just call, we will rarely still have 5 opponents in on the turn. Most of the hands that our opponents are limping with will completely miss this flop, and many of them will fold for one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. A raise will likely fold those that would fold anyways.

However, I think the possible follow up turn plays should then be explored. Calling puts us in a little tougher spot than raising does when the turn comes.

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