Hard to quantify sports question

[Dids]

I'm not suggesting nepotism is a negative at all. Just that it exists in this sport.

Using Dale Jr. as an example, he's obviously helped because he stepped into a championship level (at the time) organization. Yes, he's probably very good, but he had a significant leg up.

We're still getting away from the question. I'm not really talking about the avg person. Say I am Brian Townsend, I'm 26 and loaded. I decide that it's my life dream to race nascar. I dedicate all my money, all my time to this goal. I don't care if it takes till I'm 50. Will I ever be able to make it, or does some driving gene exist that eventually will limit my capacity to get there?

(if we want to get away from racing, insert bass fishing or whatever else you're thinking about).

[DrewDevil]

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Even the most marginal NBA player is an absurdly better athlete than an ordinary person. When basketball people say that Grant Long can't shoot, can't pass, can't dribble, what they mean is: He can shoot, pass and dribble better than you, better than anybody you know, better than all but a few hundred people in the world. Long's jump shot is so bad, by NBA standards, that his team never runs a play designed to set him up for it; but you could practice your jump shot every day forever and still never beat him in a game of Horse. '

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I don't know anything about Grant Long, but it doesn't seem to me that every NBA player is better than an average person at every basketball skill. I have basically no basketball skills whatsoever, but I think think I could shoot free throws better than Ben Wallace with a little practice.

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That's probably true for FTs but nothing else. And it is true about the overall level of talent in the NBA being just absurd.

I remember back in the 80s, the Rockets had this scrub 12th man forward named Dave Feitl, a big goofy white guy who never ever played. I once went down to Fonde Recreation Center (legendary pickup spot, lots of great players there), and Feitl was running with 9 guys who were all 6'7" or taller and all looked chiseled out of granite. Feitl completely dominated the game, scored at will, grabbed every rebound, nailed 3s, etc. And this guy was one of the worst players in the NBA, yet he was without question the best player in a very high level pick up game. It's just a whole different level.

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Yeah, you just have to go to the cage on W 4th St or Rucker to see the 2nd-tier college stars and NBDL guys dominate the best pickup players in the City on a daily basis.

I remember Kenny Smith came to one game and some playground "legend" scored like 20 or 25 in the first half on Kenny and was taunting him at the half.

Kenny outscored him like 60-4 in the second half. I think he had more than 60 actually.

NBA shooting guards regularly hit 70% or more of their 3s in practice, unguarded. Not one person at 2p2 can do that on a daily basis from NBA range. Not even close - I'm talking over 100 shots, not 10, even I can get hot and make 7 of 10 from straight away.

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You don't think there is a single 2p2 poster who could make 70/100 3s? I bet if you got the money big enough you'd find out differently, 2p2 is a big place.

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NBA 3s? I'd take that bet for any amount of money, unless Steve Kerr and Larry Bird read 2+2.

[Hurrrr]

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Thremp- Whoever can afford a go-kart, basically.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, you can just buy a go-kart. But it's more than just that. Your 7 year old wants to race, so you get him a go kart. But you also have to take him to the track once a month (or more often). You have to teach him how to race. And once he gets good, the cars get more and more expensive. And the travel takes you farther and farther from home. An Andretti parent would tolerate all that because racing is "in his blood." A typical middle class parent will just put their kid in some more convenient sport.

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And people wonder why Americans suck at the international level of racing. Brazil, Germany, England, etc. all have lots and lots of kart racing leagues for kids. If we had such a system I would imagine our talent pool would be much greater.

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As NASCAR grows in popularity this is probably more likely to happen here in the US.

Nepotism is not the word you were looking for Dids, these kids have a clear advantage based on their family ties, but that just means that they are developing their innate abilities from a much younger age and with many more resources. There are other Petty brothers that never made it to NASCAR for instance, the ones with the most talent break through.

[gusmahler]

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I'm not suggesting nepotism is a negative at all. Just that it exists in this sport.

Using Dale Jr. as an example, he's obviously helped because he stepped into a championship level (at the time) organization. Yes, he's probably very good, but he had a significant leg up.

We're still getting away from the question. I'm not really talking about the avg person. Say I am Brian Townsend, I'm 26 and loaded. I decide that it's my life dream to race nascar. I dedicate all my money, all my time to this goal. I don't care if it takes till I'm 50. Will I ever be able to make it, or does some driving gene exist that eventually will limit my capacity to get there?


[/ QUOTE ]He's about as likely to make it to the NFL as he is NASCAR. (If you haven't put in thousands of hours of practice by the time you're 26, you're so far behind there's basically no way to catch up. By the time he has as much experience as Marco Andretti did when he first raced the Indy 500, his age will serve as a limit to his ability (coordination and reaction times go down).

[quirkasaurus]

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Even the most marginal NBA player is an absurdly better athlete than an ordinary person. When basketball people say that Grant Long can't shoot, can't pass, can't dribble, what they mean is: He can shoot, pass and dribble better than you, better than anybody you know, better than all but a few hundred people in the world. Long's jump shot is so bad, by NBA standards, that his team never runs a play designed to set him up for it; but you could practice your jump shot every day forever and still never beat him in a game of Horse. '

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I don't know anything about Grant Long, but it doesn't seem to me that every NBA player is better than an average person at every basketball skill. I have basically no basketball skills whatsoever, but I think think I could shoot free throws better than Ben Wallace with a little practice.

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Good point. Or Shaq. I've actually tested this premise. And,
yes, I can shoot free throws at about 60% with almost zero
practice. Of course, this is not after running up and down
a basketball course full speed for 2 hours.

[quirkasaurus]

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I made in 4 in a row once.

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I've been to known to make double this amount in
lay-up drills.

[djoyce003]

There's an old fishing saying that says "10% of the fisherman catch 90% of the fish"

I usually fish saltwater and i've heard that saying a lot of the time. I can also say that it's extremely accurate. I fish quite a bit and have my whole life. Some fisherman just "get it" and other fisherman don't. Some guys go the same spot all the time because they caught fish there once. Other guys know why they catch fish and that spot and go when the conditions warrant going there.

I can't tell you how many times I've come to the dock after catching tons of fish and see 5 other boats at the dock that didn't catch as many fish as me all put together.

I'm a pretty decent fisherman, and there are guys that AMAZE me and how many fish they catch compared to me. So basically, between joe blow sitting on his couch who occasionally goes fishing, and a pro the difference is staggering.

In saltwater and freshwater both, knowing how to work a lure also counts for something. But, if you take a guy who is just average, and put him where there are lots of fish, he will catch fish almost as good as a pro. The real key, is knowing when and where to fish, and the difference really stands out when there just aren't a lot of fish, or for whatever reason, they aren't cooperating. A pro will still catch, average joe will get skunked.

[Butcho22]

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I'm sorry but as a both BBV and Sporting Events regular... my head is exploding seeing Dids make a serious post.

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First thing I thought myself [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Thremp]

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Will I ever be able to make it, or does some driving gene exist that eventually will limit my capacity to get there?

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You "genetics" or natural ability will limit you. You have not passed your physical prime as in heavier physical sports (You'd have exactly no shot at tennis, even if you were Roger Federer). Golf, sure.

It'd be the same as poker, there are plenty of people that have played for decades that just aren't any good. And who actually care. Golf, fishing etc.

[Dids]

I disagree on poker.

I feel like that anybody with a ~100 IQ can probably be made into a reasonable winner at say 30/60 with enough study and practice. The fish in poker aren't fish because they try to learn and fail, they're fish because they don't try to learn to play the best way possible.

I think at some level there's some innante logic/reasoning/game theory stuff that probably seperates folks out, but that treshold is likely pretty high.