Let's talk dice control - Page 5

SamIAm · #41 07-04-2006, 11:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Eh, Kaesar, I'm not sure I understand your point of confusion. If you can get more of your bankroll in action sooner, then clearly you are going to get into the long run faster, agreed?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't know about Kaesar, but I sure don't agree with this. If you make one $1000 wager, and I make 900 $1 wagers, I sure have smaller variance than you do.

If you and I play the same way, except your wagers are 10x mine, of course we'll have the same proportional variance and EV. It'll take the same time to "reach the long term".

Duh, in fact.
-Sam

Double Down · #42 07-04-2006, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If it worked, the person holding this skill would never tell a soul. He would travel from casino to casino and earn millions of dollars. He would never want to publicize that such skill was even possible. It would be stupid. No book he could sell for a few thousand dollars in royalties a year could ever make up for the lifetime of earnings lost.

[/ QUOTE ]

By this logic, card counting must also be nonsense since if it really did work people wouldn't publish books on it.
And I guess all that hogwash in poker books isn't worth my time either then?

Double Down · #43 07-04-2006, 05:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that dice control systems are not aimed at the new player. A fresh face can do just fine building his roll in the traditional proven ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the traditional, proven ways of building one's roll at a negative expectation game?

goodgrief · #44 07-05-2006, 03:58 AM

I like to think I'm as active in my Asperger's as anyone, but Double Down's comments are truly sad. Ed Thorp published his books because, at the time, cheating was so rampant in Vegas that you couldn't actually make a profit at card counting. (He made his money in options.) Ken Uston published his books after he was pretty much unable to play. Same with Wong. Same with Ian Anderson. Same with all of them really!

Scoblete, Sharpshooter, etcetera have not earned millions of dollars at dice and gotten barred from all casinos and THEN published books. They have wagered trivial sums at the casinos and made their money selling junk books. If you can't see the difference, fine. I really don't care if you lose your money, because I learned long ago that you can't help the helpless. Spend any time at all in a casino and you learn that.

[ QUOTE ]
What are the traditional, proven ways of building one's roll at a negative expectation game?

[/ QUOTE ]

That question is quite simply dishonest, since I am clearly telling the young people to play the proven methods that are KNOWN to be positive expectation (counting cards, 2 to 1 promotions, etcetera) and not any negative expectation games like stupid dice scams.

I'm always sorry when I try to help people and give useful information, and now I remember why. As Ann Landers and the Divine Marquis before her said, No good deed goes unpunished. I'm out of here. I hope you're proud of yourself.

TheMuppet · #45 07-05-2006, 10:27 AM

Its possible, but it takes tons and tons of practice.

I remember seeing some documentary about a couple of guys who where doing it, and they had used insane amounts of time (like 8h/day for a year), to get good at it.

And its not something that everyone can learn.

I believe their record was 80+ something throws, without hitting a 7. And they would average around 30.

SheetWise · #46 07-05-2006, 01:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Its possible, but it takes tons and tons of practice.

[/ QUOTE ]
How many practice shots are there in one ton?

[ QUOTE ]
I believe their record was 80+ something throws, without hitting a 7. And they would average around 30.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's insane to believe that anyone could average 30 rolls before a seven. Even among inveterate gamblers -- only the most credulous would buy into such nonsense. To believe they would then be doing a documentary you have to be bordering on brain-dead.

waynek · #47 07-05-2006, 03:02 PM

Averaging 30 rolls before throwing a seven is not possible and nobody can do it. Fortunately they do not have to. One only needs to improve the random ratio of one seven in six throws to one seven in seven throws to gain an edge over the casino.

waynek · #48 07-05-2006, 05:01 PM

Why read the book when you can see the movie. Dice control DVDs featuring SharpShooter, the author of "GetThe Edge At Craps" are available at
www.professionalsinsight.com

smittymatt · #49 07-05-2006, 06:02 PM

I barely read the replies, but I believe it certainly works. However, not just anybody can do it. It takes tons of devotion and you are limited to throwing only when you are physically/mentally well (not tired, worried about the money you are risking, etc).

I have tried it and even built my own practice rig. I kind of lost interest recently, but when I was shooting almost daily, I could see improvement. The problem is you have to know when everything is coming together and when it's not. The baseball analogy is used quite often as pitchers aren't always pitching their best. Controlled shooting should only be done when you are in the right mindset.

That said, the VAST majority of people who try to control the dice fail. I wouldn't be surprised if 95% or more of the people who try never have an equity edge over the house (kinda like poker, eh?). I know for a fact I am not good enough to beat the house, even after what is probably more than 10k throws at this point.

On top of this, those that DO get good enough only have a relatively marginal house edge. Betting the pass line with 5x odds throwing randomly will yield about a .3% house edge. It is said the best controlled shooters in the world can MAYBE squeeze out a 10% player edge. This would lead me to believe that most experienced controlled shooters average 2-3% edge. You have to bet ALOT to have any sort of reasonable hourly expectation.

Basically, you need a [censored] of practice and a huge bankroll/backing for relatively little gain.

TheMuppet · #50 07-05-2006, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]

It's insane to believe that anyone could average 30 rolls before a seven. Even among inveterate gamblers -- only the most credulous would buy into such nonsense. To believe they would then be doing a documentary you have to be bordering on brain-dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

They never showed how these two guys looked like, they just told their story.

But hey whatever, you dont want to believe I cant be done? I dont mind, its almost a free country, so you go ahead an believe whatever you want.

But this is doable, unfortunatly it takes way more skill / pratice than most people will ever have / want to put in.

But saying this cant be done, is like saying you cant count 6 decks in BJ (and I mean perfectly count it, not just keep a running count) + remember the deck, so they know when the aces hit after the shuffel. Obviously this can be done, but very few people can do it (like 1 in a billion).