Gus' 6,4 Hearts Call Against Tony G on PAD

[speedgun]

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Any play is of little if any value if your opponent is aware of it. The point is, there is no way your opponent can be sure that it is a play as oppose to a real strength move.


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FYP

[betgo]

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Any play is of little if any value if your opponent is aware of it. The point is, there is no way your opponent can be sure that it is a play as oppose to a real strength move.


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FYP

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Here Hanson is not representing a big hand, as he would reraising or making an early position raise with 64s. He is representing A8o, JTs, 22, QTo, something like that, and hoping Tony G. folds T high or something to the stop and go.

[theman]

Well boys and girls, believe it or not, I'm ready to move on from this particular thread, lol. I greatly appreciated everyone's insights into this particular hand and the back and forth debate, as it certainly improved my knowledge of poker plays and sparked some good debate (well, at least for myself).

I wanted to assure those who wrote that I was not paying attention to the discussion and wanted only to prove my own point that that was not at all the case (as I've already mentioned in previous posts above). I loved thinking about and evaluating everyone's thoughts/comments and I think my history of posts above show that I learned a lot and gained a lot. I'm not sure where those types of comments or accusations came from (perhaps it was attacking your own perceived "straw man"?), but they aren't true. One minor point is that this is a discussion board, so certainly the tenor or my comments may be a little off (from how it might sound if we were chatting live...like sitting right next to you), so maybe that had a part in it. I don't know.

But anyhow, my own conclusion on this is far from final. But I do simply think at the moment, given what I've analyzed, that it was a marginal play, because of the lack of real fold equity (I just don't think Tony would fold 2/3 of the time...perhaps 1/3 of time he'd fold if he had like Jack high or lower).

I wish Gus was around actually to see what he was thinking, LOL. My read on him at that moment was that Gus wanted to gamble. Tony had been playing very tight that tourney (though Gus may or may not have known it....esp after he saw Tony call all-in against Clonie's Aces...but wait..that's another reason why Tony was a bad person to use stop-n-go on...lol) and I don't think he was going anywhere that hand given how much he (Tony) raised preflop and being able to bust Gus for one pot sized bet on the flop.

I don't dispute the merits of the stop-n-go in general. The link from Raymer, though, explains it is best used when you have a pair and think your opponent has A-K or two bigs. Gus didn't have a pair pre-flop, but did flop a pair. ...But anyhow, I felt it was unneccesarily risky, given that even if Tony has absolute garbage, it was one small flop bet (compared to Tony's huge chip stack) to bust Gus (who Tony knows could have AK...a draw..anything). It's one of those situations where he just can't fold (even if he's beat), because of the bet size. (I'll double check later tonight when I rewatch that episode online to see what the stack sizes were).

So yeah, in my opinion, it was definitely a play by Gus (he certainly doesn't think 6,4 hearts is winning). And with "plays" you often don't need odds if you are playing your opponent perfectly and don't care about the cards. Only here, the "play" isn't that great of a choice, because of lack of pre or post flop fold equity. So it's really more of a race with the 6,4 in which case I already mentioned it'd be better to wait even ONE single hand to get something better than 6 high to go all-in with. But hey, if you want to gamble, then that's that. Gambling is allowed too, lol.

-TheMan

[Cornell Fiji]

I have not read this whole post nor did I see the episode but I just want to say that if Gus pushed the flop then his play is absolutely standard and is exactly the way that I would have played the hand against Tony. He probably gets looked up on the flop by any ace and maybe even good kings too as Tony has to anticipate a S&G in this spot but that still generates enough FE for this to be a +EV play

A push preflop gets called 99.5% of the time with 0.5% held out for a live misclick

[betgo]

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I have not read this whole post nor did I see the episode but I just want to say that if Gus pushed the flop then his play is absolutely standard and is exactly the way that I would have played the hand against Tony. He probably gets looked up on the flop by any ace and maybe even good kings too as Tony has to anticipate a S&G in this spot but that still generates enough FE for this to be a +EV play

A push preflop gets called 99.5% of the time with 0.5% held out for a live misclick

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I don't think there is any question that a stop and go is better than a preflop push. I think OP is saying that folding preflop is better than either.

[Rottersod]

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I have not read this whole post nor did I see the episode but I just want to say that if Gus pushed the flop then his play is absolutely standard and is exactly the way that I would have played the hand against Tony. He probably gets looked up on the flop by any ace and maybe even good kings too as Tony has to anticipate a S&G in this spot but that still generates enough FE for this to be a +EV play

A push preflop gets called 99.5% of the time with 0.5% held out for a live misclick

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I don't think there is any question that a stop and go is better than a preflop push. I think OP is saying that folding preflop is better than either.

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He's at the endgame of a winner take all event and he's short stacked. He can't just wait and hope to catch a hand. What we're trying to explain to OP is that 64s is not that bad of a hand in that situation and unlike his reasoning doesn't figure to be a massive underdog to any random hand that Tony G is betting with. Sure, we're all agree that Gus would have liked nothing better than K9 but at that spot you can't pick and choose.