Grimstarr c/r's me on the river

[traheho]

this is weird. mperich, jman and I all think fold. and for those who dont know none of us ever fold. i think he accounts K in your range here. 45 got there on turn and i think a lot of people check K here to get value out of mid pair on good river. Im usually betting KJ w/ my image on turn as well and then re-evaluate river, however a fair % of the time is good. as played i fold.

[NoahSD]

Does Grim turn like 55 into a bluff here? I don't get what he could call pre, call flop, and bluff river with here.

Edit: Of course, folding here is exploitable as hell since this is probably close to the strongest hand we ever get here with. But in order for Grim to exploit this, he'd have to start c/ring a ton of marginal made hands or calling on the flop with air. I doubt he's doing either of those.

[riverboatking]

i think this is a great spot for grim to go for a CR on river with any hand that beats a K.
the K on the river is a good card for your whole range.
i'd expect you to value bet a hand like TT in this spot as well as bluff with a pretty decent frequency, so its a good spot to CR.

that being said i'm a pay off wizard and in heat of moment i prolly always click call.
but i think its a good spot to fold.

[mastr]

Yo ike, what's GStar's 3-bet % on you PF? Can't we narrow down a boatload of hands because of that? And Noah, we can easily get here with much better then our actual hand btw. Gut instinct says fold from what I know of the 2 of you guys, but I don't know how much you guys know of each other. Its a close somewhat sick spot either way but looking at this hand in a vacuum I say fold.

[LBK]

I think he has air. All in.

[thetruest]

i have a feeling it doesn't matter what you do here anymore as he will be bluffing this situation 40% of the time and got yourself trapped. It's too easy to put you on K or something mediocre (if you had a set would you want to bet the turn? i think so). Sometimes he'll have it, sometimes he'll push you off. And then alot of times, players won't have that king or anything good and won't wanna play a big pot with all those undercards on the board.

As for this situation for some reason i lean towards fold because it sounds like you feel like he knows you can lay it down, and if he knows that you think he knows that you can lay it down then you're more apt to call. That and if he did boat up it does sound like a hand one would call OOP a little more often instead of 3betting light pf (22 and 33).

[SuperPokerJedi]

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easiest fold ever

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cos he has you beat so bad!

[HERE_2_gamble_]

This isnt an " easy call" or " easy fold".
It depends on how you view grim and how you think he views you.
This is a good spot to be check raising on grims behalf as you are never checking that turn with 2pr+.
So basically AK is at the top of your range.
And i think a few people have said even a K bets that turn alot.
I prefer a call.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
this is weird. mperich, jman and I all think fold. and for those who dont know none of us ever fold. i think he accounts K in your range here. 45 got there on turn and i think a lot of people check K here to get value out of mid pair on good river. Im usually betting KJ w/ my image on turn as well and then re-evaluate river, however a fair % of the time is good. as played i fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The trouble with this hand is that you can't have a boat or a straight (at least, I hope you bet a straight on the turn, lol.) The absolute best hand you've got here is AK, and Grim has to know this. Like I said earlier, there's nearly zero dif between AK and KJ here. So, if Grim is ever CR'ing made hands other than 54+, don't like it but must call etc. If his CR range is exactly (air, 54+), our hand strength makes no difference and we should be calling TT here occasionally while folding AK most of the time, but I have the feeling he doesn't play that bad.

[MychCumstien]

I won't go so far as to call this an "insta-call", but it's close IMO. It's worth thinking through [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Here's my analysis: You raise UTG, grim puts you on either a PP or a couple of unpaired high cards (pretty standard),

you make a firm c-bet on the flop and he calls.

Your check on the turn shows weakness.

Your bet on the river looks like desperation, i.e. you want to win this with Ace high (IMO).

Grim probably puts you on a hand like AQ, AJ, AT. He figures if you had the K, you would have followed it on the turn with another bet. Likewise, if you had a medium to high PP, you probably would have made a smaller bet on the turn as well to define your hand.

In answer to a question you had earlier, "no", I don't think that checking a good King is standard here. Especially with a backdoor flush draw and straight draw out there. (No I don't think he has 45 for the straight already). He most likely would have re-raised you preflop with AK, and both AK and KQ would have given you more action on the flop and turn.

In fact, I don't think he has a K here, and if he does, probably KT or K9.

I seriously doubt Grim calls out of position raises preflop with 45. Even 22, or 33 is pretty thin. I'm not saying he wouldn't, as he his the BB, but still, playing 22, or 33 out of position for the rest of the hand is not fun (unless you hit) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 66 is more likely if he has the boat IMO.

Personally I think you're most likely up against, 88,99, or TT. Maybe JJ, but again, I think you would have seen more action from JJ-AA before now.

Most likely ranges based on his play IMO are JJ, TT, 99, 88, 66, KQ, KT, K9.

He could have AK, 22, or 33, but again, I think it's highly unlikely based on what I wrote above. AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, would have woken up before now.

I think you beat most of his possible holdings at this point and therefore need to call here. Plus you are getting good pot odds here, $2100 to call a pot of $4975, about 2.37-1, with trip Kings! and a good kicker.

Like I said, my instincts tell me that Grim is putting you on high unpaired cards here, like an unpaired ace, or maybe a low PP, and thinks he can get you to fold here. Plus, with the second K on the river, it makes it that much more unlikely that you have a king in your hand. He see's this, and recognizes this as well, and honestly figures his TT or 99 might be good here.

Let's look at his last raise as well. It's stiff enough to scare you, but not enough to pot commit himself. Giving you just over 2-1 here, you're pretty much only calling here with the King, or a boat or straight. I highly doubt he puts you on 45, and he probably thinks you wouldn't be raising UTG with 22, 33, or 66. He feels you probably don't have a king, based on your weak turn play, and the 2nd King falling on the river.

His raise also gives him an exit strategy, he can still fold if you come over the top. I'm not necessarily advocating that you do that, in fact I think pushing here would be terrible, as you'd only get called if you're beat. But it allows him an out for the hand.

I also think his raise is a bit stiff for a value bet here. If he had the boat, he would want a call from you, and would be more likely to lay you 3-1, maybe even 4-1 odds here i.e. with a raise in the range of $1800 to 2200. I think a raise to about $2000 would be perfect if he has the made hand here, as you're much more likely to call. I think he expects/wants a fold from you here with this bet, putting you on a hand like A high.

I would definitely call here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, that's my $0.02 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]