UFC 76

[Oatmeal]

Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 80% of the time?

[svj]

Normally, I would say that two strikers can't really have more than a 75% chance of a win on one guy, due to factors like slips, lucky punches, etc. Like what Jardine did to Forrest, Serra to GSP, etc.

However, I expect Chuck to do his usual counter-punch, and Jardine to charge right into it, flailing wildly.

I think Liddell will pick Jardine apart the same way that Griffin did. But Chuck's skill level is much, much higher than Griffin's. I think he's smart and skilled enough not to get caught. And a strong enough chin to survive it, even if he does. Especially now that he's been knocked out. I expect he will be very conscious of that being repeated.

I think the value is on Chuck here.



Rua and Forrest on the other hand...

Rua will not be allowed to kick or stomp grounded opponents, a large portion of his offence. A good full-body-weight heel to the gut kicks the hell out of anyone's gas tank. Not an option here.

Elbows shouldn't be a problem. Chute Boxe has plenty of experience with that.

Forrest, since around Griffin/Bonnar 2, has been a much more disciplined striker, preferring to pick his shots, sticking and moving. Using lots of long-range leg kicks. This is exactly what he's going to need for Rua.

The octagon is a larger structure than the ring, and has no definitive corners, making it more difficult for Rua to catch Griffin, or trap him into a corner.

The other factor working in Griffin's favor is the 5 minute round. He can have a much easier time out-pointing Rua in a 5 minute round as opposed to a 10 minute round, where Rua would almost certainly catch up to and outclass him. But it is conceivable Griffin can keep out of reach for 5 minutes at a stretch.

I expect Rua to win, but I think the +EV bet is a small bet on Griffin.

[21times20]

[ QUOTE ]

Rua will not be allowed to kick or stomp grounded opponents, a large portion of his offence. A good full-body-weight heel to the gut kicks the hell out of anyone's gas tank. Not an option here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you really think a "large portion" of shogun's fights were him standing while his opponent lay on the ground waiting to get kicked? this is almost as ridiculous as you stating so assertively that kicks to a downed opponent's body aren't allowed in the UFC


[ QUOTE ]
Elbows shouldn't be a problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree here as well, if this fight goes to the ground elbows will definitely be a problem, both for forrest griffin and the guy in charge of mopping up the blood before the liddell/jardine fight


[ QUOTE ]
He can have a much easier time out-pointing Rua in a 5 minute round as opposed to a 10 minute round

[/ QUOTE ]

ok i can't argue with you here, griffin will definitely have a better shot at outpointing rua on a round by round basis when you compare to a system that doesn't score by rounds at all

i really don't see why anyone thinks there is any "+EV" in betting forrest here, when you lay chalk on a heavy favorite in mma im pretty sure the main concern is your guy getting caught and knocked out with the proverbial "lucky punch." I have seen nothing in any of griffin's fights to indicate that he has the hand/foot speed to catch an athlete of shogun's caliber off-guard, nor have i seen anything that would lead me to believe that he has the power to knock him out even if he did catch him with something

and forrest winning by decision might be even more of a longshot, i think the level of aggression shogun fights with makes him uniquely suited to avoid a narrow decision loss, especially against a markedly less talented opponent

[Oatmeal]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 80% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I got the line wrong when I said this. -450 would have to be 90% of the time to break even, right?

[Performify]

-450 would be break even at ~81.8%

90% break even is -900.

http://www.google.com/search?q=moneyline+converter

-P

[MikeyPatriot]

svj,

While I'd be surprised to see Jardine take this, why do you think he'll charge in wildly against Chuck? Keith comes from Greg Jackson's camp, and if nothing else, Jackson is one of the better gameplanners in MMA. I haven't watched enough Jardine fights (yet) to really pick out a good gameplan for him, but I'd be surprised to see him rush in wildly.

[eljizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 95% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

[DannyOcean_]

I guess I'm rating Forrest's stand up better than everyone else is. I think it's chic to bash forrest in some mma circles just because he started the TUF craze, although there are certainly legitimate criticisms of him. I feel pretty confident in my assessment, but whenever a large % of 2p2 vehemently disagrees, i do pause. Gotta think about this one some more.

[trixtrix]

i personally don't think taking forrest at +310 or above is that bad of a bet, worst comes to worst you can always scalp out of it on fight night..

like someone said before, i know it's passe these days to hate on tufers, but forrest is widely established and highly regarded mma talent way before the reality show. the prob w/ forrest is that he tend to fight w/ more heart than brains.. he'd rather make a fight exciting rather than winning a plodding dec.. that obviously can be both good and bad

i think it's funny people here hate on "tuf"ers like forrest for his sloppy striking, yet had they had any knowledge of forrest at all before "tuf" they'd ve known that forrest has one of the best bjj sub ground game in the lhw division. it easily ranks on the same level if not exceeds shogun's bjj groundgame, though maybe not so much his gnp. the fact that people don't make a note of forrest ground game indicates to me that they should stop calling other "tuf" noobie and pick up a copy of IFC "global domination" dvd...

forrest is just too bullheaded to go to his ground game that often as he thinks its better to be reckless and crowd-pleasing rather than calculating and methodical. however in his last comeback fight from jardine ko has shown that he had gotten significantly smarter standing-wise at least.

at any rate, the shogun that was being backed up by nakamura's pesky arm punches on nye hasn't significantly impressed me enough to say that he would win an easy ud over forrest's gogogo style if it goes to the score cards.. while forrest's ground game should be enough to keep him out of shogun's potential subs..

[RikaKazak]

I put $500 on Rua at -325...I think due to forest's popularity there are going to be people that bet on him no matter what the line...so bodog intentionally shifted it a little...(like what Wong talks about in his book)

Also I think UFC sometimes over hypes the underdog...

we'll see...I'm a sportsbetting fish so wish me luck [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]