QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)

[Ringmaster]

Your range only contains 20 hand combinations. That's only 1.5% of all hands. Unless he's the biggest nit ever, he's 3-betting way more hands than this. Adding only AQ and TT to his initial 3-bet range more than doubles the number of hand combos, meaning he's folding more than half the time and pushing +EV right off the bat. Add in some combos of AJ, KQ, smaller pairs, suited connectors, suited aces, etc., stuff people like to 3-bet vs a button open, and pushing ++EV.

[Montezuma21]

Casper- what PF 3betting range do you put him on?

FWIW it seems the bulk of our EV comes not from semi-bluffing (because he always calls when ahead) but from value from hands like TTd and 99d, am i right?

[Whoopz]

Shoving flop is huge +EV for sure, i got it to about 26$ vs a tight 3bet range (TT+, AQo+, AQs+) and a tight calling range (JJ, KK+, AdKx, AdQx ).

However calling flop and folding to a turn bet(even a d turn) might be even higher EV, 33ish$ even if he bluffs us of best hand with every combo of AdKx, AdQx. But if he Crai us on turn with AdAx often enough just shoving flop is prolly the best play.

[Fingerswinger]

ringmaster, pokerstove takes care of that. you don't have to manually exclude cards that are already in the flop or our pocket cards.

i made up my mind, i agree now that villain is likely to be significantly looser than i assumed.

[Ringmaster]

Our EV when called comes from the fact that we usually have either the best hand or the best draw. Villain rarely has both, so we have decent equity whether he calls with KK no diamond, or AdKx. The only hands that crush us are AdAx and KsKx, and he doesn't have those hands too often. Even JJ isn't that far ahead.

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
ringmaster, pokerstove takes care of that. you don't have to manually exclude cards that are already in the flop or our pocket cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your right, I thought it didn't. I edited my post.

My second point still stands though.

[Fonkey123]

Didn't really read the thread, but I'm not understanding what's so terrible about smooth calling. Some "nits" go batshit crazy postflop when they get all wild and 3 bet sc's.