controversial opinion about uselessness of online poker

[canvasbck]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what I said to make everyone think I am some naive fool who will never make it. I am not just starting to play poker. I have been playing (up to 5/10 NL live) and studying for a few years, and I am a decent player. I decided to go pro a couple months ago and warmed up with 2/5 NL. Now I am at 5/10 NL and have my sights set on 10/25 NL eventually. I have savings so my bankroll is plenty big enough for a big downswing, and I have done a lot to make myself prepared emtionally for the inevitable swings I will encounter. I am going to try to play lots of weekend days, though I will be playing weekdays too. And yes, there are tons of fools playing 5/10 NL at Foxwoods and even the regulars have some big leaks in their game. My expectation of success is based on this and not on the meaningless sample size I have so far. Don't know what my win rate will be, but from my experience and what I have read on the forums I think it will be a solid one. What the heck am I missing here? Why don't believe that poker can be really easy and stress-free if you take the right approach?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are underestimating the power of a severe downswing when you are making your living at poker. Yes, you are doing all you can to prepare yourself for the inevitable, but it will eventually kick you in the nuts. This is a promise. A brutal downswing will make you start second guessing your game, and will also make you play differently. This often leads to an even more prolonged downswing. The best line I have ever heard reguarding the phenomenon is this "There is a limit to your upswings but there is no limit to a downswing"

I went through a severe downswing (live and on line) where I had six consecutive losing months. I don't rely on poker for my living and it was still very tough to get through it. I hope that you are as capable of dealing with it as you belive you are. I truely do wish you the best of luck.

[atrainpsu]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what I said to make everyone think I am some naive fool who will never make it. I am not just starting to play poker. I have been playing (up to 5/10 NL live) and studying for a few years, and I am a decent player. I decided to go pro a couple months ago and warmed up with 2/5 NL. Now I am at 5/10 NL and have my sights set on 10/25 NL eventually. I have savings so my bankroll is plenty big enough for a big downswing, and I have done a lot to make myself prepared emtionally for the inevitable swings I will encounter. I am going to try to play lots of weekend days, though I will be playing weekdays too. And yes, there are tons of fools playing 5/10 NL at Foxwoods and even the regulars have some big leaks in their game. My expectation of success is based on this and not on the meaningless sample size I have so far. Don't know what my win rate will be, but from my experience and what I have read on the forums I think it will be a solid one. What the heck am I missing here? Why don't believe that poker can be really easy and stress-free if you take the right approach?

[/ QUOTE ]
McStinky, I understand what you are saying here. While I have a fairly small sample size playing 2-5, I can say with strong conviction that the difference in skill between 2-5 and 1-2 has been minimal. If I was to play bigger and still see a minimal difference in skill, then I think I would project my expected winrates to be something like this:
$20/hr at 1-2
$35/hr at 2-5
$60/hr at 5-10

I think this winrate is reasonable, and if you are emotionally strong and can stay on an even-keel, you can withstand a downswing with relatively little stress. Don't worry about the attitude of the naysayers, although I would keep in mind what they have to say.
Good Luck. I wish the best.