2k turbo, ? - Page 5

MATT238 · #41 08-22-2007, 11:25 AM

I thought about this hand some more, and I think c/c the whole way through just gives the villian too much control of the hand.

If hero calls on the turn thinking he has the best hand, then he would also think he has the best hand on the river. What about a defensive bet, about the size that villian bet on the turn? Would also look like a value bet with a 10 here to villian, and put him to more of a decision. I think betting the river makes it much tougher for villian to shove with air here and puts the tough decision more on him.

The Yugoslavian · #42 08-22-2007, 11:42 AM

jennifear,

Your actual equity will be more than that since it will be a near-bubble situation and just about every hand from then on will be extra +EV for you at the expense of everyone else.

I've forgotten how to do those calcs (they're complicated) but if shillx pops up he may give it a go, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

darinvg · #43 08-22-2007, 11:48 AM

I normally raise PF but trapping a good player here can be good.
Flop is good.
I was thinking about folding the turn and there's no way I'm calling the river.

xPeru · #44 08-22-2007, 11:49 AM

For the truly curious, who can't resist knowing, Joe posted the results on the thread in jennifear's link.

Daleroxxu · #45 08-22-2007, 12:03 PM

edit: holla

Pasterbator · #46 08-22-2007, 12:05 PM

maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe bigjoe didnt want the results posted on a forum that can actually spark real discussion.

you should probably take that down...

Jennifear · #47 08-22-2007, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
jennifear,

Your actual equity will be more than that since it will be a near-bubble situation and just about every hand from then on will be extra +EV for you at the expense of everyone else.

I've forgotten how to do those calcs (they're complicated) but if shillx pops up he may give it a go, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I accounted for this when I adjusted his equity from the $6250 on paper to an approximated $6750. My number was not based on anything but experience and I was unaware that there was an actual way to calculate this. Would you say this number would be higher or lower? I can't imagine it would be too much higher or far off, but definitely correct me if I am wrong.

This was the quote from my post that I am referring to:

"There are two intangibles that don't figure in to the equity calculation as I see it:

1. If you win, you have a measure of control of the SNG with your lead, so your true equity exceeds that of the calculation, should you win.

2. You are on the button. That also accounts for a small amount of equity.

So your true equity may be in the $6750 range if you win, rather than the $6250 on paper."

The Yugoslavian · #48 08-22-2007, 01:53 PM

jennifear,

Well, there is no way to definitively quantify it, but tossing out $500 seems arbitrary. I dno though if you play a bunch of 2k STTs and know the make-up of this table well then it's probably a good call.

We have nothing to go on though (well ok I don't) except raw numbers. The way one could go about calculating the extra value is by running through the likely outcomes of the next few hands assuming everyone plays at equilibrium. It's a very good model to see just how much the big stack may add as my guess is every hand afterwards, equilibrium takes away even more value from everyone at the table and adds it to joey.

Yugoslav

alex-star · #49 08-22-2007, 02:29 PM

I've never played that high, but generally speaking - why not raise PF? As played, I'd really think that flat calling the turn bet is bad. You're only ahead of air at this point. if limped PF, I'd put a pot sized bet on the flop and prepare to c/f the turn if called.

Jennifear · #50 08-22-2007, 02:39 PM

Fantastic reply Yugo, and excellent discussion!

The reason $500 seems arbitrary is because it IS pretty much arbitrary! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I pretty much just went on past experience that he would gain about an extra 15% of the difference between his equity and the most he could get (first place).

I should note, however that if the true number is somewhere around $7k-7200 instead, then the % needed for joe to call is 35% certainty rather than 37.5%. Even if I knew how to quantify this extra equity (which I don't but would love to see!), it wouldn't make that much of a difference unless I was way off in my estimate. I can't imagine that bigjoe's equity could be as high as $7300+, which would be the only way that the % needed to call would drastically change from my estimate.