WSOP ME Hand: TT facing an overbet

[Temp Hutter]

[ QUOTE ]
I have asked this hand to a bunch of players. Still not sure what I think the right play is here. Figured I would post it on here to see what people think...

Day 1, the clock has expired and this is the final hand.

CO 45k
Hero in SB 93k
BB 35k

Blinds 400-800, 100 ante

5 Folds
CO opens for 9k
Button Folds
Hero looks down at TT


Reads:
BB: super tight. Played KK scared early for fear of loose player have AA.

CO: LAG. He spewed some chips twice on bluffs. Pushed people out of a few other hands. Bit of a donk but has a clue. He has not opened raised for more than 4x before this. Pretty sure the clock reading 0:00 has something to do with it.

What's your play? What range would you give him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any idea how villain views you? This will change his calling range if you decide to push.

[jmill2511]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see anything in the description of villain that he is afraid of seeing a flop. And if he just wanted to take the pot, why not make it 3.5-6xBB.

I think there is a good chance this is JJ+, AK.

A lot of people will make some kind of play with a big pair that atleast in retrospect telegraphs what they have. I just don't see why that couldn't be what he is doing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I don't think he has air here ever for one, and if he wanted to just pick up the pot with xx I agree he'd just make a slightly larger than normal raise or something.

Generally speaking on the last hand people are just happy to have made it past the 1st day, so I don't think anyone is more likely to play back at him if he raises 3x or 9x.

I think JJ+, AK is a bit too tight of a range though, I think we should throw in AQ and middle pairs like 77+ if nothing else.

The difference is that I don't think he's doing this with AA/KK obviously. When he makes this raise obviously no one is going to give him action without a huge hand, and any player knows that. He loses so much value here if he has AA/KK.

The hands that make the most sense are hands that are strong but vulnerable, hands that he doesn't mind not getting any action with. It's a defensive bet, and that's why it's so hard for me to give him AA/KK here.


I'm not big on making some magical read or anything, but I think he's helped us narrow his range here if nothing else.

I def. think this is AQ/AK a ton more than AA/KK.

That being said I think it's a tough spot, and not an easy decision either way.

[fnurt]

I agree with that. This feels a lot like AK to me, a hand you have no choice but to play, but also a hand you can easily see yourself losing a lot of chips with. Psychologically, I can imagine not wanting to see a flop with AK on the last hand of the day.

[Cornell Fiji]

A lot of the replies in this thread are assuming that the villain is thinking about calling ranges and that he is thinking about how his raise will be viewed.

The villain here is clearly not a rational player. If he was thinking about those things then he would have not made an 11.25bb raise! I think that we need to be careful in situations like this that we don't assume that the villain is thinking. He is not thinking, he is simply playing his cards.

We need to put the villain on a range based on our collective experiences playing with idiots. But we should not try to put him on a rational range.

...and I shove.

[BKiCe]

i feel like he has exactly JJ here a very significant percentage of the time and 77-99 rarely... i didn't play the main event but by all accounts it was super soft, i would muck this fairly quickly and wait to chip up vs the 4 idiots at your day 2 table.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the only problem with that is, you win 11K when you're right and lose about 35K when you're wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
no, about 18% of the time when you're wrong, you win like 50k!

[/ QUOTE ]
On average you lose about 27K against a big pair.

If you push, you sometimes get called by AK/AQ or 99/88, so your expected loss if called is significantly lower.

If villain either has a big hand or is stealing, Adanthar's point has soem validity that you lose more when you are wrong.

[jmill2511]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of the replies in this thread are assuming that the villain is thinking about calling ranges and that he is thinking about how his raise will be viewed.

The villain here is clearly not a rational player. If he was thinking about those things then he would have not made an 11.25bb raise! I think that we need to be careful in situations like this that we don't assume that the villain is thinking. He is not thinking, he is simply playing his cards.

We need to put the villain on a range based on our collective experiences playing with idiots. But we should not try to put him on a rational range.

...and I shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree

[THEOSU]

i fold pretty quickly here.

i have no problem going home with 93,000 chips. that's a lot of work on day 1, and a fine performance.

the last thing i want to do is run into aces or kings here and blow half my stack, then have to stew on it for a day or two.

is this the wrong way to look at it? probably. but i don't stew over things well.

[Terkman]

Doesn't anyone think that donks are thinking "I will not let anyone suck out on my aces on the last hand, so I will raise superbig to protect my hand." In my experience donks are terrified of busting on the end of day 1, and might do this with AA/KK to avoid postflop decitions.

[2005]

Two of my favorite things to do are steal on the last hand before break and take advantage of the last 15 minutes of the day(any day) in a major tournament. So many people are thinking "Man, I just wanna make it through the day." That's what this guy is thinking. "Ok, one more hand before the end of the day, I'm just gonna fold. [censored], it's JJ(or QQ-AA). Ok, '9000'"

This is pretty much never air, a pair smaller than yours, or AK-AQ. This is an easy fold.