ZeeJustin Prop Bet

[Admo]

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and would anyone be willing to lay the 39.4-1 against him? If he picks 100 players with avg rois of 800% he should get 7.5-1.

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Yes on both.

Let's def. book next year.

[flyingmoose]

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The fields are tougher online but when ROIs were posted for the best internet MTT players some of the best players were around 80%. I forget where this thread was, but it seems really high to think it could be as high as 800%.

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My online MTT ROI over 2 years is in the 150% range.

I don't think anyone can hit 800% in the ME (maybe if they never have an off day, or an off hour) but 600% seems reasonable for a Hellmuth or Ivey.

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Your online ROI includes mostly relatively smaller (<6000 person) fields though. What do you think your true ROI is in just the Sunday Million, if you had to guess?

[Taylor Caby]

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ZJ,

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Brian Townsend

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lol

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Why would that be funny? He's probably one of the best poker players in the world.

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brian is of course one of the best poker players in the world but i wouldn't put him anywhere near tier 1 in this bet. assuming he is playing 1k-2knl games 16 hours a day for a week prior to the main event like he did this year there is just no way for him to be a) play anywhere near his best game for 7 days due to the sheer exhaustion he would face and b) care enough about the stakes to play his best (he would have to have finished in the top 3 or 4 to have any sort of meaningful score this year).

tc

[adanthar]

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The fields are tougher online but when ROIs were posted for the best internet MTT players some of the best players were around 80%. I forget where this thread was, but it seems really high to think it could be as high as 800%.

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My online MTT ROI over 2 years is in the 150% range.

I don't think anyone can hit 800% in the ME (maybe if they never have an off day, or an off hour) but 600% seems reasonable for a Hellmuth or Ivey.

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Your online ROI includes mostly relatively smaller (<6000 person) fields though. What do you think your true ROI is in just the Sunday Million, if you had to guess?

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That's a really tough question because the payout is so top heavy, but anything from 300-800% wouldn't be out of the question in the 215 version? There's just so much almost completely dead money in that field that the Sklansky dollars almost get hoovered around.

[ZeeJustin]

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ZJ,

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Brian Townsend

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lol

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Why would that be funny? He's probably one of the best poker players in the world.

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brian is of course one of the best poker players in the world but i wouldn't put him anywhere near tier 1 in this bet. assuming he is playing 1k-2knl games 16 hours a day for a week prior to the main event like he did this year there is just no way for him to be a) play anywhere near his best game for 7 days due to the sheer exhaustion he would face and b) care enough about the stakes to play his best (he would have to have finished in the top 3 or 4 to have any sort of meaningful score this year).

tc

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Townsend and Cunningham both made my list mostly because I would feel really stupid if I left them off and they did very well.