... and here comes the next... (Playalong)

[Douglas Leslie]

... but what now? What hands do we put villains on, what do we do, based on that?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that SB has an eight, paired or otherwise. The read on him is that he is passive, but does not call down on bad hands. I think he would have folded to the flop raise if he had an eight, and similarly he would have folded if he had a piece of the flop less than a ten. He is playing his hand as if he has a draw, which means he probably has 52 or 65. His bet on the turn suggests that he has specifically two diamonds in his hand. So I am guessing that you are ahead of SB but he has fifteen outs against you. Given that BB has called the turn bet by SB, I think that we can discount some of his weaker holdings and place him more often than not with a ten which might or might not have you outkicked. UTG could be playing with tarot cards for all the chance we have of reading his hand. He could have just about anything with the remotest connection with the flop, and possibly some hands that don't connect at all. So we are possibly behind BB and around half the deck is likely to beat us on the river even if we are ahead (crediting BB and UTG with around four outs apiece). The flop raise was marginal but, with SB coming to life it is time to call the turn. I can't see that there is enough EV to raise here.
If I have read SB wrongly, we are almost certainly behind which makes a raise even more unattractive.

[Fantam]

I am late to this party, but I would also call the turn.

I dont want to fold top pair in a big pot especially with some loose and weak players in the hand, despite SB's unexpected bet.

[bung]

[ QUOTE ]
since we also have position, might want to take a free card if our draw improves, have a reasonable chance of being ahead anyhow, I decided to raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

The only draw your hand could improve to is a FD which you'd treat as a backup (in case you're c-raised on the turn) to your tp. If you think you're ahead, you cannot check the turn here, even with a FD since there are more cards that can hurt you than help you on the river.

You're drawing very thin if not dead on the turn. But I call in what is now a large pot with tp

[fretelöo]

Ok, so we call...

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6BB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10BB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>...

Now what?

[MrWookie]

Huh, weird hand. This is an automatic call, and I think the other options are both pretty bad. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] going for overcalls here.

[unterfish]

*Grunch*
fretelöo using Monte-Carlo [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Agree. UTG is no real concern and SB checked. So, since we also have position, might want to take a free card if our draw improves, have a reasonable chance of being ahead anyhow, I decided to raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of zero turns where I would check behind if checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about something like Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

I'd assume something like this would hit someones range pretty hard...

[/ QUOTE ]

Against more reasonable players I might agree but these guys are so bad I'd rather throw in another bet. I could be wrong here but when it doubt I like to push my top/second pair against total fish.

River: Call, fold to any raise.

[Douglas Leslie]

Have to laugh at this one. All that time worrying about what SB and BB were up to and suddenly it is UTG who is betting on the river. I think SB missed his draw and we might still be ahead of BB but we are probably toast after UTG's bet. Anyway, have to call this but definitely fold to any check raise. SB could still be planning to check raise a made straight with 6d5d.

[Douglas Leslie]

Been thinking about this hand a bit more, and am starting to wonder whether we can even call this river bet. What kind of hand can UTG have that we are ahead of? As a rule, a loose passive calling station doesn't suddenly lead out on the river like this without a hand that is beating a fairly weak top pair. Did he have 65o all along? If we combine the strong likelihood that we are beaten by him with the approximately fifty percent chance that we are behind BB and the smaller chance that SB is waiting in the wings with a check raise, are we good one time in twelve? I have my doubts!

[Xhad]

The river is the first time UTG has had it checked to him postflop. It's terrible to bet solely on that basis but we're not dealing with good players here. We are probably going to lose but I don't think we're losing often enough to fold here, especially when it's near-guaranteed that we're going to get overcalled by something even worse.