27$ - QQ makes a set early, flush possible on turn

[Xanthro]

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The problem with this logic is that you will win $9.00 overwhelmingly more often than you will lose $10.81. I don't have an ICM calc handy, but put in any reasonable range for villain and I am almost certain your +EV gain by getting into an all-in showdown will be greater than taking the pot outright on the flop. Yes you are taking on risk, but you should play to maximize profit, not to minimize variance.

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You're not likely to stack the person here. What you're likely to win as around 400-600 more chips.

What hand does the villain have, that you'll beat on the river, that he's calling a flop PSB and a turn PSB, yet is folding to a flop push?

He's likely calling a push with a under set, maybe with two pair, maybe with one pair because he thinks we won't push the nuts.

[KCW12]

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The problem with this logic is that you will win $9.00 overwhelmingly more often than you will lose $10.81. I don't have an ICM calc handy, but put in any reasonable range for villain and I am almost certain your +EV gain by getting into an all-in showdown will be greater than taking the pot outright on the flop. Yes you are taking on risk, but you should play to maximize profit, not to minimize variance.

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You're not likely to stack the person here. What you're likely to win as around 400-600 more chips.

What hand does the villain have, that you'll beat on the river, that he's calling a flop PSB and a turn PSB, yet is folding to a flop push?

He's likely calling a push with a under set, maybe with two pair, maybe with one pair because he thinks we won't push the nuts.

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OK I just plugged some numbers into pokerstove. Let's suppose that villain has 6c8c (unlikely given the pf action), which would be the best possible holding for him against your set given that flop. You will still win 59.697% of the time, which is more than sufficient to make up for the times you will lose $10.81 instead of winning $9. Against more reasonable holdings: AQ and KQ (97.879% to win), AA and KK (89.596%), any 2 broadway clubs (73.838%). You are beating any of these holdings, and he is likely to call a flop bet and even a turn bet if he doesn't improve. If he has two big clubs, there are eight cards that help him on the turn (against which you have 10 outs on the river). Given those odds, I will gladly take the risk to win 400-600 more chips (it might even be more). The only hands I see him calling a flop push with are AA, KK, 77, 55. Two pair is unlikely given the board. If we don't push and try to extract value instead, we are getting him to pay us off with Qx and draws, which are much more likely.

[donkeykong2]

he has a flush draw here like 5% of the time before we bet, there is absolutely no need to worry about that.
even if he hits a flush a lot of time it wont be good because we fill up. pushing because we fear the draw is totally horrible here.
after he called we should be more aware of the flush possibiltiy though i would still bet because i dont expect him to have the flush that often.

[The Venetian]

There was a time when I would get excited about a hand thread here with lots of responses. Now, I'm just resigned to assuming there's someone very stubbornly arguing for a horrible play or we took a possibly interesting hand and turned it into a preflop raise/not raise/bet size question. Right again! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Xanthro]

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Given those odds, I will gladly take the risk to win 400-600 more chips (it might even be more).

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How much exactly does this extra 400-600 in chips help you in the long run?

You need to win some hands at the lower levels to stay ahead of the blinds and keep fold equity.

At these stages losing pots can be ruinous, and winning only helps marginally. It’s risk vs. reward.

Let’s examine what hands may call a raise, but not a push.

SB flat called Pre-flop with UTG still to act, so action isn’t closed. We have to assume SB doesn’t have total garbage.

It’s checked to hero, two pair is unlikely (75 being possible but odd), so we have AA, KK, AQ, 55, 77, AK, or a weird hand like 76s or 86s.

If we push, AA, KK, 55, 77 are calling, AQ may call even, all these hands will also call a raise. What is left are weirdly played combo hands like 76, 86 and 75. These hands may fold to a push, but are likely to call a raise. Other pocket pair and hands are as likely to fold to a raise as a push.

So, many normal hands will call your push, when you have the nuts, even the odd hands might call the push. So you are only extracting extra value from weirdly played hands by not pushing. You are actually leaving chips behind if you don’t push against normal hands.

By pushing, you get maximum chips out of the hands you are 90% against. By simply raising, you are leaving behind money against the hands you are best against, in an attempt to gain a few hundred more chips against hands you are around 74% against.

Really, (without a specific read) there’s only one likely hand where pushing will gain you less chips than a standard raise, and that’s AQ. TPTK may fold to a push, but will likely call a raise.

What’s the downside of pushing? That is you could have possible won an extra few hundred chips from some hands, when these chips equal a blind at later stages. What’s the upside of pushing, you’ll get called by exactly the hands you most dominate and you’ll gain far more chips.

[Xanthro]

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he has a flush draw here like 5% of the time before we bet, there is absolutely no need to worry about that.
even if he hits a flush a lot of time it wont be good because we fill up. pushing because we fear the draw is totally horrible here.
after he called we should be more aware of the flush possibiltiy though i would still bet because i dont expect him to have the flush that often.

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We aren't pushing because we simply fear a flush draw, or weird combo straight draw. We are pushing because against the most likely hands it maximizes value with little risk, and simply raising gains us little compared to greater risk.

Let's take your 5% flush draw. What does he have that he's calling a raise, but folding to a push? A lower set in not folding here.

I don't want 55 or 77 to get away cheaply, and a club may slow my action against them, even if I stay agressive.

[AMT]

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Bet call turn.
Shove river.
He can have a flush on the turn, but letting him hit a free 9 outer with something stupid like 99c really sucks also he can shove worse hands on the turn like sets where river clubs will kill your action and even against a flush just yell PAIR THE BOARD.
River people are stupid they will call here with two pairs and sets let them do it.

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At last so sanity in this thread.
OP that Ace on the turn is more likely to have 2 paired villian then make a flush.

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sorry was i not sane enough for you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]