BR Management and You (NLTRN)

[TNixon]

Oh, btw, I'm currently exercising option 3 (with a measly $80 bankroll after another losing streak last night), but still seem to be stuck in this downward spiral of coolers, bad beats, or my opponents always being at the very top of their possible range.

But if I end up having to redeposit (which seems more and more likely every day), I'll probably have to play at a 20 or 30 buyin level until I get some level of confidence back.

:/

[daveT]

58% win rate is good enough for 7 bi? I don't comprehend that. I drop 7 in a row all the time, and I would be ashamed of myself if I was at 58%.

I don't know, not unless you don't mind having exactly one buy-in to rush into a bankroll. Not impossible, I guess. But I don't see that as enough for a 58% wr.

The argument would be a plus if you somehow maintain an outstanding game selection, but if that was the case, you would be at 68%, not 58%.

In other words, you are skating on very thin ice with a 7 BI br.

[LordMushroom2]

[ QUOTE ]
58% win rate is good enough for 7 bi? I don't comprehend that. I drop 7 in a row all the time, and I would be ashamed of myself if I was at 58%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he means that if you have a bankroll of 7 buy-ins and lose 1 buy-in, you should move down.

A very aggressive bankroll-strategy is optimal if you are a machine. But the bigger the psychological impact of losing money has on you, the more passive your optimal bankroll-strategy will be.

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]


58% is enough that you're leaving tons of money on the table if you wait too long to move up, and high enough that there's a fairly low risk of ruin even playing as little as 7 buyins. (I think 5 is too low unless you're *positive* that you're a solid winner at the level)

Well, maybe you do need 63% to play 5 buyins, but 58% is good enough for 7-8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your ror with 7 buy-ins as a 58% winner is (0.42/0.58)^7 =10.44% which is extremely high and should not be recommended .

[hra146]

ofcourse 10% is high, but compared to other forms of poker its ridiculously low.

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
Your ror with 7 buy-ins as a 58% winner is (0.42/0.58)^7 =10.44% which is extremely high and should not be recommended .

[/ QUOTE ]
You're not considering moving up and moving down in your 10% risk of ruin there, and moving down has a *huge* impact on your ror, depending on how many levels are available below you. Thanks for not making the *obvious* connection there.

Take a look at this:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post11086013

I think you'll be very surprised to see how much potential value is left on the table.

[ QUOTE ]
I drop 7 in a row all the time, and I would be ashamed of myself if I was at 58%.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a 58% wirate, the chance of losing 7 games in a row is about two-tenths of a percent. It will happen (.2% isn't as small as it sounds, when you consider that every loss can potentially start a run of 7), but it shouldn't exactly be a "regular" occurence.

(says the guy who's in a tailspin, down somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 buyins overall in the past 3 weeks)

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Besides, you're moving up and down as appropriate, so it's not like 7 losses in a row is going to break you. Also, if you were already following option #3, you were playing even thinner than that, with 5 buyins, and simulator runs showed that although there was more value playing with 5 buyins, the risk of ruin was so much higher that it was only a very slight win overall. Somewhere around 7 or 8 seemed to be fairly optimal when comparing value gained against the increased risk of ruin.

So I never thought I'd say this about anybody else's bankroll suggestions, but I think dboy's 3rd option is slightly too aggressive, unless you're prepared to insta-deposit when you go broke.

[jay_shark]

The truth is , many players cannot beat the rake and the concept of bankroll management need not even be mentioned . If your win rate is 52.4% , then there is a 100% chance that at some point , you will go broke .

[daveT]

So, essentially, your post says go with option #2. I think I am able to wrap my brain around that.

[TNixon]

Well, #2 is definitely safer than #3. Somewhere in between the two is what I think is fairly optimal, though.

I didn't show numbers for 7 buyins, because even saying you can play with 10 buyins is heresy for a lot of people. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Indiana]

bankroll management is for poker players without real jobs....so i dont waste my time thinking about it