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#41
03-27-2006, 05:16 PM
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Re: UB 50/100
Some thoughts before I post results:
1) Most people's ranges for his hand are too narrow. He is defending 67o, 79s, A4s to my 4-bet preflop. The types of hands I think he folds are A7o, K9o, and maybe some random junk he might have 3-bet me with like J5o. 2) Given my image, I don't think he thinks I'm capable of pushing AA or QQ on the turn or river for value. 3) Not sure what his bluffing frequency would be at this point. My image would point towards him trying to push me off my hand but the fact that he's been reraising me liberally might make him gunshy b/c he might think I will take a stand. Let me know when you want me to post results. 
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#44
03-27-2006, 05:27 PM
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Re: UB 50/100
[ QUOTE ]
1) Most people's ranges for his hand are too narrow. He is defending 67o, 79s, A4s to my 4-bet preflop. The types of hands I think he folds are A7o, K9o, and maybe some random junk he might have 3-bet me with like J5o. [/ QUOTE ] I just assumed he'd fold most of his junk hands that missed to your flop bet. I could see him calling with a 9 possibly but definitely checking it down as far as he could. If you think he's really that aggressive that he'd call on the flop with nothing here to make a move a turn check is definitely the way to go. [ QUOTE ] 2) Given my image, I don't think he thinks I'm capable of pushing AA or QQ on the turn or river for value. [/ QUOTE ] The other piece is whether or not he thinks you'd call down with AA or QQ.. if he thinks you will its a strong argument towards betting since he's less likely to try to bluff you out, you're just giving him free cards to a flush/gutshot/pocket pair
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#45
03-27-2006, 05:44 PM
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Re: UB 50/100
[ QUOTE ]
2) Given my image, I don't think he thinks I'm capable of pushing AA or QQ on the turn or river for value. [/ QUOTE ] this very much suggests a turn push if we put him on a mid pocket pair given your history. do you see why?
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#46
03-27-2006, 05:48 PM
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Re: UB 50/100
heres the analysis of a 200NL player. If anyone wants to comment on this I would appreiciate it, maybe its even helpful.
What is his range of calling a three bet preflop. I would think it is something like AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, sometimes AQ/KQ. any of the pocket pairs would probably check river down. KQ is probably pushing river, as is AK. AQ might push as a bluff. What would he call you with if you bet? QQ-AA+AK, KQ? It seems like betting makes sense, particularily after he called you allin with TP J kicker.
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#47
03-27-2006, 05:48 PM
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Re: UB 50/100
I normally would bet 60-75% of the pot in my games, but on ub, this equals the pot button, so just pot it, which is prob. allin or close to it so where you just push.
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#49
03-27-2006, 06:02 PM
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Re: UB 50/100
although camus is being a dick, i think he's spot-on with his posts in this thread. a check-turn/push-river combo is VERY strong and he will not pay you off. bet the turn, but given that you checked it, you have to check the river too.
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#50
03-27-2006, 06:16 PM
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Re: UB 50/100
chk-call flop to weak-lead turn.
or bet less on the flop. but if you pot the flop and he calls bet the turn.
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