Risk of Ruin over 7 events

[rgold79]

One thing that a lot of people overlook is the fact that there is an enormous amount of equity to be picked up later in tournaments when a high percentage of the field is simply playing to cash. If you go in with a "must cash... must cash" mentality you'll be DOA.

You and your backer will realize a far greater return if you win one event and bust out in the other 6 than if you cash in all 7 for minimal amounts.

Don't worry about how many times you cash, play to win and realize that it is absolutely impossible to win a large poker tournament without getting lucky at select times along the way.

[TStoneMBD]

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I'm not staking myself because $20k represents too large a portion of my bankroll considering what is apparently a high risk of ruin.

I've played over 5000 tournaments, supporting myself with $5k/month expenses for more than 2 years. I majored in Economics and Psych. Before poker i was CFO for a strategic consulting firm, i've achieved the rank of chess master and was 4th in the US at blitz chess back when i was 18. I scored perfect on my SATs, read every good poker book ever written (about 45). I've watched and "mastered" every PXF video, i've received countless comments from top players about their respect for my game. I play 40 hours a week and work on side problems, reading, watching poker videos etc for another 20 hours a week. I stay in peak mental and physical health through good diet, rest, exercise and meditation. And aside from all of this, i'm extremely lucky in everything i do and work as hard as i possibly can to achieve my goals.

Can we close that part of this discussion now? Please ;-)


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btw, i just want to clarify that my comments were based on this quote he made (in white), not on his assumptions that hes a great player.

[SGspecial]

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the guy just wanted an answer based on an assumption (he made the assumption part clear) and everyone jumps on him for one statement, which, even if OP believed to be true, we should be happy to indulge. Why is everyone so hysterical and insecure? Just answer his question assuming he's the next Carlos Mortensen.

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Doesn't everyone here think they are the next Carlos Mortensen?? Some just aren't as upfront about it...

[StrayBullet]

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the guy just wanted an answer based on an assumption (he made the assumption part clear) and everyone jumps on him for one statement, which, even if OP believed to be true, we should be happy to indulge. Why is everyone so hysterical and insecure? Just answer his question assuming he's the next Carlos Mortensen.

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seriously, what is wrong with you guys? the guy is a new poster and we make him feel like an a-hole because he wanted to use assumptions?

This community is less and less friendly lately.

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Try the last year....

[Assani Fisher]

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Sure. While we're at it, we should just assume you can see the other players hole cards too.

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I apologize for how personally many people seem to be taking this... i'm aware there are many better players out there, i'm just trying to simplify things. My analysis would be pretty silly if i said something like "i'm better than average, probably a lot, but not quite world class".

My recent observed results are probably unsustainable and my sample size is very very small in live tournaments. However Gordon said in his little green book something about 400% ROI and i have no basis for comparison without all of your input. :-)

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Hey man,

I don't think that you're trying to be arrogant or anything, so I'm saying this in a friendly way: You're coming across as way too over-confident.

Fact #1: Your average buy in is $70
Fact #2: You're now buying into $1000+ MTTs


In short, I don't think you're a lot better than average at all. You're stepping up in stakes and thats always a risk. GL to you, I wish you the best. But don't expect to be the best at the table the very first time you move up in stakes.

[Assani Fisher]

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let's just assume i'm as good as any of the top known players.

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Wow. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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1) No one knows who i am or how i play
2) I know how the good players play and how to abuse them
3) I've supported myself for 2+ years doing nothing but poker.
4) This Is Just A Simplifying Assumption ;-)

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New2This,

Going into last year's WSOP I had done the following:

-Been one of the top winners at Party's $215 STTs for 2+ years before I moved on to ring games

-Took 1st place in a Party Super Weekday for $30K+

-Had probably 20-30 Final TAbles in $150+ buy in tournaments

-Chopped 4 way in a Party Million Guaranteed for $70K+

-Won a Stars Nightly $162 for $15K+

-Played in a series of WPT events at the Borgata including the $10K main event




With all of that....I still didn't consider myself even close to one of the better players in these events. There are a lot of very good players out there. You're doing ok for yourself so far...good for you, but don't get carried away. $70 online tournaments are nothing. Sitting across the table from guys that you've seen on tv a bunch of times is a whole different thing.

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that a lot of people overlook is the fact that there is an enormous amount of equity to be picked up later in tournaments when a high percentage of the field is simply playing to cash. If you go in with a "must cash... must cash" mentality you'll be DOA.

You and your backer will realize a far greater return if you win one event and bust out in the other 6 than if you cash in all 7 for minimal amounts.

Don't worry about how many times you cash, play to win and realize that it is absolutely impossible to win a large poker tournament without getting lucky at select times along the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very true, but the problem is this:

1. Hes playing so much higher than hes used to that the money matters dearly to him. Cashing is of huge importance

2. Based upon his initial question, it seems as if his backer would rather "play it safe" and make some money than risk it all to win one big score.


Why exactly are you getting a backer here? I know that its very enticing to want to play in the WSOP, but it isn't going anywhere. It'll still be there next year. If you're as good as you think, then why not just build up your own bankroll by yourself?

[DoGGz]

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One thing that a lot of people overlook is the fact that there is an enormous amount of equity to be picked up later in tournaments when a high percentage of the field is simply playing to cash. If you go in with a "must cash... must cash" mentality you'll be DOA.

You and your backer will realize a far greater return if you win one event and bust out in the other 6 than if you cash in all 7 for minimal amounts.

Don't worry about how many times you cash, play to win and realize that it is absolutely impossible to win a large poker tournament without getting lucky at select times along the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very true, but the problem is this:

1. Hes playing so much higher than hes used to that the money matters dearly to him. Cashing is of huge importance

2. Based upon his initial question, it seems as if his backer would rather "play it safe" and make some money than risk it all to win one big score.


Why exactly are you getting a backer here? I know that its very enticing to want to play in the WSOP, but it isn't going anywhere. It'll still be there next year. If you're as good as you think, then why not just build up your own bankroll by yourself?

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Well clearly he wants to play this years WSOP, and getting a backer is better then not playing at all for him. The biggest problem people are having with this thread is that OP is just amazingly full of himself, which I think will only HELP him during the WSOP. I'd much rather stake someone who's overconfident then someone who's scared or weak in his play.

[Bonified]

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If you're as good as you think, then why not just build up your own bankroll by yourself?


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QFT. This is what I don't understand about all these people wanting to be staked. There are MTTs and SNGs at all levels 24/7 online. Play what's within your bankroll at the moment and build it up. No backer, no hassle, and you keep all the profit.

[New2This]

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If you're as good as you think, then why not just build up your own bankroll by yourself?


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QFT. This is what I don't understand about all these people wanting to be staked. There are MTTs and SNGs at all levels 24/7 online. Play what's within your bankroll at the moment and build it up. No backer, no hassle, and you keep all the profit.

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Why i'm playing the wsop instead of staying home and multitabling smaller buyins.

Good hedge, good fun, good experience, chance of big payout, improve my game, etc

The only reason i can think of not to play is the opportunity cost related to not playing 35 tournaments per day online while i'm in vegas.