winrates playing live?

[SellingtheDrama]

Personally I know that I'll never get a true handle on my winrate live. I also don't really worry about it anymore.

I have a good sense of the regulars in my normal room, I know who I want to be up against, who I really want to be up against, and who I don't want to be up against. I have a general sense when a game is +EV, very +EV, and possibly -EV.

[otter]

Assume that you play in the same nl game every day with the same 40-60 people. You know how everybody plays; in fact you have notes on them and nobody is too tricky. Isn't it possible that your win rate will be higher for that game than it would be if you were playing different, random tourists every day?

Do you think it would take 3,000 hours to get an idea of what your win rate it for this type of game or would you know sooner?

Even if you don't have an idea of what your exact hourly rate is you will still know whether or not you can beat the game and it shouldn't take you 6,000 hours to figure it out.

[kassdog]

How do you guys keep track of how many hands you play. Do you just bring like a golf shot counter and click it everytime you get cards.

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you guys keep track of how many hands you play. Do you just bring like a golf shot counter and click it everytime you get cards.

[/ QUOTE ]You may choose one:

Golf shot counter
Abacus
Fingers and toes
Number of hours played * Avg hands/hr

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you guys keep track of how many hands you play. Do you just bring like a golf shot counter and click it everytime you get cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Live you dont track BB/100, you track hourly win - BB/hour.

[LocustHorde]

[ QUOTE ]
Assume that you play in the same nl game every day with the same 40-60 people. You know how everybody plays; in fact you have notes on them and nobody is too tricky. Isn't it possible that your win rate will be higher for that game than it would be if you were playing different, random tourists every day?



[/ QUOTE ]

It all depends on how bad the tourists play compared to players in your regular game. Is the question you're really wanting to ask is, is playing in Vegas more profitable than local games (or vice versa)? If this is the case, I'd say no, the tourist game is better.

[whorasaurus]

So I've been at $45/hr at 1/2 for the last 3 months, but after reading this thread my apparent win rate and my true win rate decided to cozy up to one another. Gross evening at foxwoods. Thanks for the -BBs/hr TT and all the rest of you pessimists.

/rant

[Bulldog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whats a good winrate for 1/2 NL at a casino.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please define the min/max buyin and your playing style

[/ QUOTE ]

60 min, 300 max (AC standard) and TAG

15 sessions since beginning of 2006:

-65 / 2
+500 / 10
0 / 4
+135 / 6
+405 / 7
+240 / 7
+500 / 6
-300 / 5
+160 / 2
+25 / 1
+65 / 1
-75 / 6
+15 / 3
+440 / 4
-435 / 8
+245 / 5

Total +1,855 in 77 hours ($24.09/hr)

Sample size micro

[adios]

Rottersod is basically right but you could get a very rough indication of whether or not you're on the plus side if you know your standard deviation. Getting into the long run live takes awhile, a good long while. My impression from what you post is that you're probably currently on the +EV side. Things can change though as the games always change. Sounds like you're in a good situation FWIW.

[the machine]

use pokercharts.com and start tracking your play. I only have 64 hours logged over 31 days and 14 sessions for a 16$ an hour winrate, but am break even over the last 5 sessions. was around 25$/hr before this stretch. small sample but it will give you a good idea of this win rate over the long run after a few months or so