200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?

[MightySan]

Only a total rock, total weak tight player would fold here AK getting 3:1 odds. You have to catch a bluff only 1 time of 3 to get even. I think, you will catch it 2 of 3 or more often here after two checks on late streets.
If people see you are folding too often, you will be pushed around with such 1/2 pot bets all your remaining life.

[Bukem_]

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Villain never puts on AK and is prob value betting worse or bluffing something

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People always put squeezer or reraiser on ak.

I don't think it matters that its transparent, I just set my own price on river.

[74o_Clownsuit]

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I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

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Your hand ranges for villain are insanely tight. Who folds TT in this spot? Since he checked the turn he is going to have a monster or a hand with showdown value, not a hand that wants to bluff the river. So the play is to value-bet or check/fold here IMO. You guys are over-estimating how likely it is that players at small stakes will turn a made hand into a bluff in a big pot.

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I know they're insanely tight, but I only came up with that range b/c of my tight image.

Maybe I am completely over analyzing this hand lol. But it is in these marginal situations that I think there is many bb/100 to be won/lost.

However, as many have already stated this is not a fold by any means. I just feel that his range is narrowed b/c of how tight I had been playing but then again I could be overestimating the thought process of villain; even though he seems to be a solid player.

In a vacuum this is an easy call and would only require 3 or 4 responses to the OP. But I am trying to go a little deeper than the standard situation.

I still don't understand why you think a bet is better than a c/c. I really don't think he is calling the river w/ a worse hand.

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Yea but after checking the turn he's probably not betting a worse made hand either.

And besides, c-bet dry flop/check turn/lead river screams weakness.

[SharkSandwich]

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If people see you are folding too often, you will be pushed around with such 1/2 pot bets all your remaining life.

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And this was one of the many factors that tips it even more towards a call. If you can't catch a bluff with a hand this strong what do you need?
Even if we're ever so slightly -EV here I'd rather call. It'll earn you a little "if he checks a hand that strong twice I shouldn't just autobet him" in future hands.

I think isura's "he's got a checkdown-showdown hand or a monster" so we might as well B/F has some merit. BUT look at how many people think a fold is the clear play here to a halfpot bet, with a hand as strong as this. I'd wager it's over a 1/3rd.

So a stone cold bluff on this river (which essentially includes an underpair, or even JTish) isn't that bad an idea. If you look like you've given up on the pot (by 2xChecking) then you're asking someone to bet anything and nothing there. Any many villains would happily oblige.

[SharkSandwich]

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Let's say he would check two pair/ or a set on the turn ~25% of the time. Let's also say that he would only bluff with 66-TT 30% of the time.

44/55/JJ/KK = 10 combos; KJs = 2 combos. 66-TT = 30; QJs = 2; QQ=3

-65*11% + -65*25%*50% + 201*64%*30% = $23


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Excellent analysis jk. I think you'd have to stretch a little to make this -EV.

You'd have to limit the PP's to like 88-TT (which is too narrow against most). Maybe increase the set-check rate.

And basically I think your 2nd set of numbers are all reasonable probability numbers. I'm still with calling, even though he did have JJ.
And I think Villain actually got about the least out of it by checking the Turn (when he's hoping Hero has at least AK) and then betting so small on the River.

Interesting hand overall. And the type of thing I think forums like this thrive on.