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#41
11-11-2006, 05:41 PM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
against an aggro player ak is often the nuts here bc he will raise or bet one of the streets with any pair on this raggedy board. this is obv more true as you get closer to the button.
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#42
11-11-2006, 06:00 PM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
"Nothing wrong with betting the river with AK there, as obviously someone will make a bad fold with 99, but it's done as a bluff. Not for value." silly me and here ive been betting it based solely on the strength of the hand for years now and getting paid right and left by AQ and worse. oh well back to the drawing board... [/ QUOTE ] Obviously I've been doing the same thing online for years. Perhaps this is one of those Xp3Rt live folds that can only take place in the bellagio poker room. Or Canterbury. But not Commerce.
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#43
11-11-2006, 06:46 PM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] "Nothing wrong with betting the river with AK there, as obviously someone will make a bad fold with 99, but it's done as a bluff. Not for value." silly me and here ive been betting it based solely on the strength of the hand for years now and getting paid right and left by AQ and worse. oh well back to the drawing board... [/ QUOTE ] Obviously I've been doing the same thing online for years. Perhaps this is one of those Xp3Rt live folds that can only take place in the bellagio poker room. Or Canterbury. But not Commerce. [/ QUOTE ] It doesnt matter where you are playing, I've played 500 hours in the commerce 1-2 game since May If a good player opens UTG 10 handed (not possible at cbury or commerce i guess) and check calls the flop 642 and the turn 3 AK is not value betting. It may be betting to get a better hand to fold, which is fine and a lot of times the best play. But its not betting hoping to get called by a worse hand which is what a value bet is.
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#44
11-13-2006, 02:52 AM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
"30-40% of that belongs to bugstud" no against justin's range there i dont think he has that much pot equity i just dont. maybe 20% or less. [/ QUOTE ] Are you randomly making up numbers? Look at this Stove range: Board: 6s 4d 4h 3h 2d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 70.9302 % 69.77% 01.16% { 77+ } Hand 2: 29.0698 % 27.91% 01.16% { 99 } Notice that this is assuming I never bet unpaired cards when we get to the river. Here's what I actually think my range would be: Board: 6s 4d 4h 3h 2d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 42.9577 % 42.25% 00.70% { 77+, AKs, AJs-ATs, KQs, AKo } Hand 2: 57.0423 % 56.34% 00.70% { 99 } Worm, I'm not arguing that AK is a good value bet here, but I'm pretty sure I would have bet AK on the river if I held it as a value bet. The way the hand went down from my perspective, including my read on his body language would have made me feel really good about holding AK. Notice that I left AQ out of the above range, because I think I'd check that hand, while betting AJs - KQs as a bluff. Put another way, I thought there was pretty much no chance bugstud had a pair when I bet the river.
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#45
11-13-2006, 06:58 AM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] "30-40% of that belongs to bugstud" no against justin's range there i dont think he has that much pot equity i just dont. maybe 20% or less. [/ QUOTE ] Are you randomly making up numbers? Look at this Stove range: Board: 6s 4d 4h 3h 2d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 70.9302 % 69.77% 01.16% { 77+ } Hand 2: 29.0698 % 27.91% 01.16% { 99 } Notice that this is assuming I never bet unpaired cards when we get to the river. Here's what I actually think my range would be: Board: 6s 4d 4h 3h 2d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 42.9577 % 42.25% 00.70% { 77+, AKs, AJs-ATs, KQs, AKo } Hand 2: 57.0423 % 56.34% 00.70% { 99 } Worm, I'm not arguing that AK is a good value bet here, but I'm pretty sure I would have bet AK on the river if I held it as a value bet. The way the hand went down from my perspective, including my read on his body language would have made me feel really good about holding AK. Notice that I left AQ out of the above range, because I think I'd check that hand, while betting AJs - KQs as a bluff. Put another way, I thought there was pretty much no chance bugstud had a pair when I bet the river. [/ QUOTE ] so you never have 66-22 here?
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#46
11-13-2006, 08:32 AM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
The way the hand went down from my perspective, including my read on his body language would have made me feel really good about holding AK. [/ QUOTE ] This is the key for the player holding 99. Decide on the flop whether you want to make Justin think you want a SD with a pocket pair or whether you're unsure whether or not you want one with Ace high and then vibe accordingly. If you make him believe you have a pocket pair and he continues to bet, fold. If you make him believe you have A-high and he continues to bet, beat him into the pot on the river.
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#47
11-13-2006, 08:34 AM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
The river fold is pretty bad. As Pete says I can be valuebetting AK here, and it's also possible for me to be bluffing a KQs type hand, thinking you picked up an ace high flush draw on the turn. I'm also playing 77 and 88 this way. [/ QUOTE ] You're 3betting a TAG UTG raise with KQs and 88 now? God you must be running hot.
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#48
11-13-2006, 08:39 AM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The way the hand went down from my perspective, including my read on his body language would have made me feel really good about holding AK. [/ QUOTE ] This is the key for the player holding 99. Decide on the flop whether you want to make Justin think you want a SD with a pocket pair or whether you're unsure whether or not you want one with Ace high and then vibe accordingly. If you make him believe you have a pocket pair and he continues to bet, fold. If you make him believe you have A-high and he continues to bet, beat him into the pot on the river. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
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#49
11-13-2006, 08:41 AM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the turn. Justin won't 3-bet a worse hand, so you can get away from it then, but he may certainly call you down with A-high. And if you get him to fold hands with 6 outs then that's good too. I don't mind the flop c/c. But raise that turn. [/ QUOTE ] This would be a horrible line to take against me, so I'm assuming it's gonna be at least "pretty bad" against Justin since we play somewhat similarly.
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#50
11-13-2006, 08:44 AM
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Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i prefer to limp utg with 99 and 88. a really good pro taught me why this is good in so many ways. [/ QUOTE ] hey mike, i'm really interested in hearing the reasoning behind this as i am used to auto-raising with 99 here and usually 88 as well [/ QUOTE ] FWIW, my default play with 99 and 88 UTG 10 and 9handed is to limp.
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