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#41
10-09-2007, 02:13 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs [/ QUOTE ] Yeh, and you are 31% against 88+,AQ+. That is 5.6% of his hands. If he is raising 20% of his hands from CO, then he calls 20% of the time. You gain 4900 if he folds. If he calls, there is 75300 in the pot. Your expected loss in 12500 compared to folding. So your overall expected win is 1400 by pushing. If you 3-bet/call, Colson may push some weaker hands thinking he has FE and he may flat call. I think 3-bet/calling is about equal to overbet pushing with AJo. If you had a big hand or were making a playing, a standard 3-bet is better than a push. Now people are saying flat calling is more cEV+ than reraising, but they say fold this flop. If you check/fold any flop without an ace or jack or KQT, I don't think flat calling is very EV+. Plus sometimes you are dominated with top pair. Given villain is a strong player, it seems like a reraise is the better play. It seems to me that if you are going to flat call, this is a pretty good flop to checkraise or lead out/fold with, representing a pp or middle cards. [/ QUOTE ] colosn raising a lot more than 20% from CO with antes. 
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#42
10-09-2007, 02:18 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs [/ QUOTE ] Yeh, and you are 31% against 88+,AQ+. That is 5.6% of his hands. If he is raising 20% of his hands from CO, then he calls 20% of the time. You gain 4900 if he folds. If he calls, there is 75300 in the pot. Your expected loss in 12500 compared to folding. So your overall expected win is 1400 by pushing. If you 3-bet/call, Colson may push some weaker hands thinking he has FE and he may flat call. I think 3-bet/calling is about equal to overbet pushing with AJo. If you had a big hand or were making a playing, a standard 3-bet is better than a push. Now people are saying flat calling is more cEV+ than reraising, but they say fold this flop. If you check/fold any flop without an ace or jack or KQT, I don't think flat calling is very EV+. Plus sometimes you are dominated with top pair. Given villain is a strong player, it seems like a reraise is the better play. It seems to me that if you are going to flat call, this is a pretty good flop to checkraise or lead out/fold with, representing a pp or middle cards. [/ QUOTE ] colosn raising a lot more than 20% from CO with antes. [/ QUOTE ] Typo, I was assuming 28%. If he is raising more than 28%, then that makes a reraise allin even more profitable. As I saidm, the reraise allin is easier to calculate, but I believe it is close in cEV to reraise/call.
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#44
10-09-2007, 02:22 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs [/ QUOTE ] YOU'RE SHOVING THIRTY SEVEN BIG BLINDS. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. He would know my range is heavily weighted towards medium strength hands.
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#46
10-09-2007, 02:23 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs [/ QUOTE ] Holy [censored], what? YOU'RE SHOVING THIRTY SEVEN BIG BLINDS. [/ QUOTE ] I am just showing that the push is profitable. We can assume that 3-bet fold is actually slightly more profitable than a push. Overbet push might be the best play anyway with this hand against a strong player. I overbet raise allin all the time like this. Is it a bad play? Standard 3-bet with AK or JJ-AA, or a bluff, but push something like AJ.
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#47
10-09-2007, 02:27 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
Well it sure as hell shouldn't be. [/ QUOTE ] What do you mean? An overbet push like this would look like 66-99/AJ-AK type hands. It's rarely ever a huge hand like AA or KK.
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#48
10-09-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.
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#49
10-09-2007, 03:42 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss. [/ QUOTE ] No, I'm with you guys. I said it early on in the thread.
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#50
10-09-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss. [/ QUOTE ]
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