+EV or Gamboool??

[ajmargarine]

Shortie's tilting, button I haven't noticed anything about him.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero ($103.80)
BB ($85.40)
UTG ($62.80)
MP ($17.89)
CO ($73.12)
Button ($173.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $17.89 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $17.89, Hero (poster) calls $103.30 (All-In)...

[Isura]

Standard and +EV. Button knows that shorty is titling, so his range is pretty wide. You might even get JJ-TT type hands to laydown which is always great.

[quarkncover]

I like.

[Mercman572]

NH.

[cbloom]

Very dangerous with Button in the hand without a read on him, but still probably +EV.

[Pokey]

+EV AND a gamboool. The nice thing about this is that you could easily knock out the tilting shorty AND put the button on tilt at the same time. He's going to have to fold this most of the time, and when he folds and sees your cheese win unimproved on the river he's going to be furious that you folded out his 88. This move is good for your image, good for your bankroll, and good for your future prospects against the button (who you have position on).

Nice play.

[big dummy]

This question of PF Pushes has always bothered me. Being the nerd that I am, I just spent way too long analysing my PT db to come up some numbers on this. However, I did come up with some surprising results. (Data is from 15,000 $25NL Party Full Ring Hands.)

Equity of AKo vs. PF AI raiser 51%/49
Equity of AKo vs. PF AI caller 47%/52

So it looks like this is a marginal call, at best. I didn't take the time to combine all the permutations of Raiser and Caller hands to come up with a single Equity number, but given the popularity of AAs and KKs in this situation, I can't imagine that the $100+ risk will be worth the $18 in potential dead money.

Here's the breakdown (% of time caller or raiser will have given hand)

Hand Callers Raisers
AA 15% 9%
KK 9% 6%
&lt;QQ 21% 31%
AKs 5% 3%
AKo 11% 8%
Axs 8% 8%
Axo 13% 16%
scs 3% 2%
junk 14% 16%

The psychology on this is interesting. It looks like callers don't give enough credit to the raiser - they convince themselves that the raiser must be an idiot or on tilt. Note that callers call with junk almost as often as the "tilters" raise with junk.

I'll see if I have time to figure out a simulation looking at the combined equity.

[big dummy]

A quick spreadsheet simulation tells me that, given no reads, it is seriously -EV. (Expected return on the $107 bet is around $80).

The only time that going against 2 opponents is better than one is if they both have lower PP or they share cards, which happens only around 7% of the time. And risking $80 for the equity in the $17 call just isn't worth it, unless the caller folds at least 75-80% of the time. (My data shows that the caller folds only about 40% of the time)

I understand the earlier posters' "reads" on the players making this look like a good move, but the evidence (at least at $25NL) shows that callers misread the situation too often to make this +EV

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
A quick spreadsheet simulation tells me that, given no reads, it is seriously -EV. (Expected return on the $107 bet is around $80).

[/ QUOTE ]
I call bull [censored]. Let's see that spreadsheet.

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A quick spreadsheet simulation tells me that, given no reads, it is seriously -EV. (Expected return on the $107 bet is around $80).

[/ QUOTE ]
I call bull [censored]. Let's see that spreadsheet.

[/ QUOTE ]