live misclick v. thetakeover 25/50 nl LIVE, 300bb deep...

[selurah]

[ QUOTE ]
Would it be so terrible to fold preflop to a reraise of an UTG raiser from a good aggressive player? Entering the pot with a call narrows your range squarely on a pair 99>QQ given he knows you are solid.

Just makes things hard to play +EV poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you may be posting in the wrong forum. You do realize this is HSNL right?

[thaaj]

ok it is pretty obvious that he should check the flop. Nick is a tricky player and it is pretty obvious you dont have a hand that youd be willing to play for stacks. But he didnt, and there is definately higher level stuff going on here. I would personally never bet the flop but lets say i did. This seems to me like it is a great pressure play by nick when he probably has u pegged on your exact hand, or maybe qq. I dont know exactly what nick thinks of you but i think a good way to approach the situation is to assume your hand is face up and hopefully you have a good enough impression of what nick thinks of you to make the appropriate decision.

with that said i would still never call the 4k because i like to avoid playing wierd pots deep vs good, tricky players who i do not have strong reads on. But you definately need to understand why betting the flop is pretty terrible unless you are trying to bait him with a huge hand.

[ceczar]

thaaj,

you have to understand that nick will NEVER be trying to get OP to fold JJ or QQ here. he would not expect OP to bet such a small amount with those hands, and no one in these games folds overpairs, certainly not to flop half pot check-raises. if you take what i just said as true (i realize while i believe it to be true, and am quite confident about this opinion, that many others will disagree), then your analysis should change quite a bit. JJ is towards the top of OPs range given the action so far.

the most important reason to bet is the existence of the button, who is more likely to have a hand than Nick given nick's flop check.

[thaaj]

[ QUOTE ]
thaaj,

you have to understand that nick will NEVER be trying to get OP to fold JJ or QQ here. he would not expect OP to bet such a small amount with those hands, and no one in these games folds overpairs, certainly not to flop half pot check-raises. if you take what i just said as true (i realize while i believe it to be true, and am quite confident about this opinion, that many others will disagree), then your analysis should change quite a bit. JJ is towards the top of OPs range given the action so far.

the most important reason to bet is the existence of the button, who is more likely to have a hand than Nick given nick's flop check.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok i do disagree with you about nick not trying to get jj or qq to fold out but i will take your word for it because you play these games. I just talked to gaucho about the hand and added a couple points that no one seemed to talk about. Ok so UTG opened for 225, his guy was a loose aggro player who was p laying relatively deep and it seems like the consensus is that this was a weak bet. This definately widens nicks range a ton because a) they are deep enough as to where he can use position to make the optimal post flop play even if utg does call. b) he can be using position to isolate the relative fish with tough to read hands like suited connectors/one gappers etc. c) 72 is always a viable possibility. Ok so nick raises and he gets called in 2 spots, basically at this point gaucho and btns range is pretty clearly defined (they do not have an 8). Nick checks and gaucho throws in a misclick feeler bet, btn folds. Now nick raises to 4k after some thought. This spot is so tough because i think gauchos hand is definately face up here. Nick is repping is repping AA or KK but due to his position on the weak utg opener i think it is much more likely that if he has a hand he has something like 86s,87s,89s. SO now it all depends if you agree with me or ceczar that nick thinks gaucho will fold jj or not. I think that nick thinks JJ will fold and thus most likely has air.

[Ansky]

ceczar,

Why are you sure Nick thinks David wont fold JJ here?

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
ceczar,

Why are you sure Nick thinks David wont fold JJ here?

[/ QUOTE ]

ceczar is right, with most everyone else in the game, they are never ever folding JJ+ here. However, if anyone there can fold it, it's me (although not THAT likely). However, my flop bet is such a small, weird amount (and just to be clear, there is a BIG difference b/t 1200 and 1700-2k, I hope people see that), it doesn't look like I have a strong hand, it looks like I am making a weird feeler bet.

Not to mention, my small bet allows him to cr more cheaply.


Also, I agree very much with thaaj's point (which no one else pointed out), utg made a smaller than normal range, nick could have a wide range here, including all pp, broadway, suited connectors, 72...

Furthermore, if nick picks up on the fact that I thought he might have been trying to iso, my range widens in his mind.

Sorry for all those who thought this hand was boring, consensus is that my flop bet was bad, making such a small bet was worse, but this hand is a bit more complex than people realize, i think.

fwiw, i've had a number of conversations with some good players about this hand who also don't think it's as simple as: nick knows my range, so fold.

[thaaj]

[ QUOTE ]
thaaj,

you have to understand that nick will NEVER be trying to get OP to fold JJ or QQ here. he would not expect OP to bet such a small amount with those hands, and no one in these games folds overpairs, certainly not to flop half pot check-raises. if you take what i just said as true (i realize while i believe it to be true, and am quite confident about this opinion, that many others will disagree), then your analysis should change quite a bit. JJ is towards the top of OPs range given the action so far.

the most important reason to bet is the existence of the button, who is more likely to have a hand than Nick given nick's flop check.

[/ QUOTE ]

the part of this that i mos def do not agree with is that he wouldnt expect op to bet that small amount with those hands. Given pre flop action and MO of gaucho i dont think there are any other hands you can put him on that are betting behind nicks check. You need to give nick a lot more credit here, i think it is pretty ridiculous to say that no one folds overpairs because playing with gaucho for a couple hours i could tell that he is an analytical, thinking player who would definately be inclined to fold jj here rather than gamble and put it in. Also, I think it is VERY unlikely that nick had aa or kk fwiw

[thaaj]

my last post is void if you think that nick knows that u know he may be isolating, but i think the liklihood of that is very minimal

[ceczar]

[ QUOTE ]
ceczar,

Why are you sure Nick thinks David wont fold JJ here?

[/ QUOTE ]
i think dlp is capable of folding JJ here. i think the size of his bet, coming from one of the non-retarded players in the game, would be seen as a very weird feeler bet, not the kind of bet that would be made with the actual hand dlp has. because of the bet size, i think it's far more likely nick sees the bet as a vulnerable hand wanting to take a stab (77, QJs, 9Ts) that won't play for stacks (yes i realize there's barely a difference between 9T and JJ and 99 here, but i know i would expect the majority of players in these games to peel and reevaluate with JJ but not 9T).

while OP obviously is more likely to have called preflop with JJ than some lesser pairs/SCs, those other hands certainly can't be eliminted from dlp's range preflop, and once he makes that wierd flop bet (and that bet coming from dlp will raise eyebrows) nick will be forced to consider those as likely holdings.

if OP had bet 1700, i think it would be very reasonable to claim his hand is "face up" and i would interpret a check-raise much differently.

but when OP bet that weirdly small amount, he completely obfuscated his own hand, which creating the optimal stack-to-pot ratio for a checkraise bluff from nick. it's also possible that OP had a physical reaction to his 'misclick' which gave a false weakness tell that nick is now acting on.

that said, i'm still torn btwn call/fold, as it's obviously an awkward spot, but the misclick pushes it towards the 'i've underrepped my hand so i have to call' decision.

i still think this is a bet because of button, but my biggest disagreement with the consensus in this hand is that i don't think OP's hand is faceup, and i don't think nick would try to bluff if he actually put OP on JJ (if OP bet 1700, it would be much more likely OP has a JJ-type hand, and i definitely don't think nick would try to bluff in that situation)

[dlpnyc21]

to be clear, the reason that 1200 is diff from 1700-2k is because of the amount nick needs to cr, and what my remaining stack size would be in relation to his check raise (the size of a "normal" cr is more relevant than my flop bet size).