This is my standard, but is it spew? AK pre flop, NL $50 6m

[HBomb]

What makes you think this is a girl playing on the account anyways? And yes, this is standard, you can't expect to move up anytime soon if you're going to be folding AKo all the time to 4 bets.

[Leviathan101]

Alright this is probably tl;dr, but it's been a LONG time since i've made a real post.

I used a very simple formula of outs x 2% per card on the flop. I couldnt remember the exact numbers, but it's pretty close to 2% I think.

This is why I 4bet shove AK, feel free to slaughter my argument or point out flaws in my math.

my 3bet range at 100nl was like 77+, AJ+, A2-5s sometimes, some suited connectors.

his range probably isn't that wide, but lets say it is. (so we can analyze what we do with AK vs different hands) And we can figure out why we 4 bet AK.

lets say you open to 3.5bb, he makes it 12bb.
folds back to you. Pot is currently 17bb.

This is where it gets interesting. we're gonna group the hands.

group 1. Dominated hands. AJ, AQ, KQ.
when you push for 100bb, you WANT a call from these hands. Poker stove says your equity is 68.875% against this range. that means when all the chips go in the middle you get back 69% of the 195bb pot. (the missing big blinds are the rake. at $100, i'm gonna say they rake $2.5) that means when they call you win 134bb, or a profit of 34bb. However they almost never call when you 4bet push with these hands, so you net a 17 bb profit.
But if you want to play against these hands, why aren't you calling? We raise for value here. We also don't want to miss and suddenly try to figure out whether we are good vs a whiffed AJ, or drawing to 3 outs vs KK or facing a flush draw from T9s. Cramming preflop gives you control of the hand again

group 3. suited connectors

against 76s we have 59% equity. when we push we expect to get back 115bb and risk 96bb. We profit 19bb, which is marginally different from the 17bb we expect to pick up if he folds. (and trust me unless he's terrible, he's folding)

group 4. AA and KK.
They aren't folding. our equity here is a terrible 19.636% and if you call it's because you dont want to stack off to these hands. We only get back 38bb putting our play at a -58bb if they have these hands. specifically against KK we have an expected return of 60bb, and against AA we have a return of 15.6bb

Now none of this factors in postflop play. Let's do that now.

If we call, AND plan to c/f a whiffed flop.

Group 1. Dominated hands.

If we connect with our 2 outer and stack them that's awesome. The odds of flopping one of the two remaining aces is about 12.5% (same odds as flopping a set, so keep that in mind, since thats basically what we're aiming to do.)
generally a Tag will fold if they flop air, and get their cbet c/r in a reraised pot. If we call, we should check to them to pick up a cbet when they have air. So we connect with one of our 5 outs about 30% of the time. We will win the 17bb in the pot + a cbet ranging from 10-17bb. We can say 13 for ease of calculation. When they miss, you hit you win 30bb.
So one of 3 things happens.
1) You both hit you stack them you profit 13.5bb(the money you invest that you lose if you don't win) + 100bb (their stack) - 5bb for the rake. That's a net of 108.5bb. It happens 12.5% of hte time so lets multiple. 108.5*0.125= 13.5bb when we call for this scenario. That doesn't include the times they outdraw you either. --- results for scenario 1 13.5bb


2) you connect they dont, you win 30bb. This is pretty straight foward. We c/r their bet they fold. we win 30bb. this will happen the other 18.5% of the time we connect. 30*0.185 = 5.55bb

3) We miss, and c/f. We lose 7.5bb. This will happen about 70% of the time. -8.5 * 0.7 = -5.95bb.

add them up you get 12.9bb for calling against this group.

So when they have a dominated hand, our expect return is 4bb less than if we shove.

group 2. coinflips.
there are 2 sub groups actually. AK and 77-QQ.
We run the same scenarios
vs AK
1) we hit they hit. When they have AK, we have 4 outs to hit to a CHOP (this obv changes if we have AKs, but I'm gonna ignore that for now). this will happen about 24% of the time. when this happens we get back half of 195bb, or 97.5bb for a profit of 1.5bb 24% of the time. 0.36bb profit. Not too hot but at least its profit.

2) we both miss. we fold to his cbet he wins a pot we could've chopped. -7.5bb* 76% = -5.7bb when we miss.

So when he has AK we have a net loss of 5.34bb. not too good. Especially condering when we shove and he folds we win 17bb and when he calls we have a marginal win of 1.5bb

Pocket pairs.


This is gonna hurt my head.
1) We hit they hit. We lose our stack. We will hit about 36% of the time. To do that we need to use one of hte possible cards on the flop. So they have two cards to spike a set with two outs. it will happen 8% of the time WE hit.
so 0.36*0.08 = 2.88% One in 40 times this will happen. We can expect to lose our entire stack (after all we called to get AI on a flop we hit) This means we lose 96bb. 96*0.0288 = -2.76bb

2) we hit they miss. We c/r and while they may stack off QQ on a king high flop, I'm just going to assume they don't to keep the math simpler. We will win 30bb. This will happen 36% of the time, except for the times they have a set. So 0.36-0.0288 = .3312 33.12% of the time we win 30bb.
30*0.3312 = 9.936bb.

3) You miss. You lose 8.5bb 64% of the time. 8.5*0.64= -5.44bb

When he has a pocket pair under QQ you win 1.736bb.

Group 3 - Suited Connectors,

1) you hit, they hit better. It won't happen too often. And sometimes you'll out draw them. the equity calculation for it isn't too different from the pocket pair issue, so I'll just assume it's the same. Sorry my math skills just aren't up to figure this out right now. We can drop this a little bit since when they flop two pair we can draw out much easier. -2.5bb.

2) 2) We hit, they miss (something they won't call a check raise with. say one pair or less.) We win 30bb. this will happen about 36% (less the chance of them flopping better which is covered above) of the time so same calucation as pocket pairs here. 9.936bb.

3)This is the same as pocket pairs too. -5.44bb

When he has a suited connector you win 1.99 bb.

4)AA and KK.
I'm going to deal with them seperately.

Cowboys (KK)
3 scenarios.
1) You spike the 4th King. This obv the worst case scenario for you since you will lose your entire stack. If you flop Aces and Kings you will catch on him 8% of the time, but don't count on it. The case king will come out 6% of the time. when it does you lose your stack so thats -96bb for you. -96bb * 0.06 = -5.76bb

2) The Ace magnets screw him over again.
You will flop one of your 3 outs about 18% of the time. When you do, you can probably expect him to cbet and you can snap it; 30bb for you. 30*0.18 = 5.4bb
(on a unrelated note, checking behind kings when an ace hits is a good idea. I've read some very interesting theory on that.)

3) you miss. You lose 8.5bb 76% of the time. 8.5*0.76 = -6.46bb

against kings you have an expected loss of -6.82bb
This is 53bb less than we can expect to lose if we shove.

Pocket Rockets (AA)
1) you hit, you're screwed. When he has AA you will hit one of your 4 cards. You lose your entire stack 24% of the time. -96 * 0.24 = -23.04bb

2) thank god, you miss. You only lose 8.5bb 76% of the time.
8.5*0.76 = -6.46bb

We lose 29.5bb vs AA.
If we shove we lose 80.4bb


against the group we have an expected loss of 43.61bb


In TOTAL.

If we call
Group 1) Dominated hands = 12.9 bb
Group 2) AK = -5.34 bb
PP < KK = 1.73 bb
Group 3) Suited Connectors
76s = 1.99 bb.
Group 4) AA and KK = -43.61bb

If we shove
Group 1) Dominated hands. They almost always fold, and it’s better for us if they call, so we will assume they won’t. 17bb.
Group 2) AK = 1.5bb if he always calls. He won’t ALWAYS call. PP = 0.01 bb if he folds exactly 53% of the time. In reality, fold more than that.
Group 3) Suited Connectors. Better for us if he calls so we’ll assume he won’t. 17bb.
Group 4) AA and KK. We get killed here and have an expect net loss of -58bb.

Compare the groups and think for a bit. Remember than AA and KK is less likely since we have an Ace and a King. In fact the odds of either is cut in half. You should realize that

OK! so now that is out of the way.

Now the real question at hand, is what is he ACTUALLY 3betting us with. Just what is his range?

If it’s just TT+, and AJ+, like stated.
There are 18 combinations of TT-QQ, 6 Combinations of AA-KK, and 24 combinations of AJ and AQ, and 9 combinations of AK. There are 57 combinations total.
This means…
AJ and AQ = 42.1% of the time.
AK = 15.7% of the time.
TT-QQ = 31.5% of the time.
AA-KK = 10.5% of the time.

If we call we win ((0.421*12.9)+(0.157*-5.34)+(0.31*1.73)+(0.105*-43.61) = 0.54977bb
A net gain of 0.55bb

Now for cramming.
To figure the equity of shoving, we should figure how often pocket pairs fold here. I’d say TT folds about 90% of the time, JJ folds 60% of the time and QQ folds 10% of the time. Is that a fair assumption? Together that means they fold 53.3% of the time. How convenient. Now honestly ask yourself if you’re facing this kind of action, how often would you actually call with these hands. But for now we’ll assume it’s a break even proposition.
When it’s up against AK, how often does he fold that? Lets say he folds 25% of the time. So 17*0.25 + 1.5*0.75= 5.375bb

so onto our calculation. We’ll assume he always folds hands we dominate because that’s the worst case scenario for those hands.

If we shove, we win ((0.421*17)+(0.157*5.375)+(0.31*0)+(0.105*-58) = 1.910875
A net gain of 1.91bb.

This shows that for the exact same range, 4 bet shoving with 100bb is more profitable than calling.

The question shouldn’t be do I call or 4 bet, the question is should I 4 bet or shove?

The tighter his range is the more you should consider folding, BUT not calling.

Whew. It’s 1:40AM now.

I think this should conclude my post. Draw your own conclusions.

As a note, I realize in this post I've been a little inconsistent with bet sizes, I said 3.5bb as original raise, yet I mentioned losing 96bb not 96.5bb. Sorry for this, but I'm not up to fixing it for now. The difference is negligible.

[HBomb]

I found a spelling error Leviathan, I suggest you re-read your little post and make sure next time you put some thought into your own posts [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Leviathan101]

[ QUOTE ]
I found a spelling error Leviathan, I suggest you re-read your little post and make sure next time you put some thought into your own posts [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

lol what a jerk [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'll make sure to spend more than 2 hours on it next time.

[traz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We are even or ahead of the vast majority of that range...but yet you want to call and c/f? Do you not see how that's terrible?

[/ QUOTE ]
You're still not addressing the point that a 4-bet by hero will fold out any hands we beat. Maybe c/f'ing is wrong on the flop, but I still think a 4-bet is wrong in this instance. Also, villain's 3-bet range was set by OP, not me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter that our 4bet folds out hands we dominate. Compared to calling and c/f'ing any flop, it's more profitable because with that line we end up FOLDING to hands we beat or are coinflips with. I'd rather fold them out than have them fold me out.

You can't just apply that saying to every situation. In this instance, it's the most +EV play. That's why this spot sucks so much...the most +EV play isn't even that +EV.

As for the range...just because OP gives a range doesn't mean he's correct, and doesn't mean we have to go with it. A major aspect of figuring these situations out is putting people on accurate ranges, and TT+ AJ+ is NOT an accurate range in this spot imo.

[clowntable]

[x] not getting it in here means hero is afraid of variance

There's only 3 Aces and 3 Kings left in the deck so we have 6 combinations of AA/KK and there are 6 combinations of QQ. Then there's the other AKs

I think the only question worth discussing here is why we don't 4bet-push.

----
Oh yeah and by that same logic (combinations of AA/KK/QQ vs AK + money in the pot), if we are villain...we push JJ/TT, right?

[DaycareInferno]

i don't really care much about how i stack up against the particular villain's range. AK is close enough in any case, and i want any regs at the table to know that they better have their gambling shoes on if they want to come over the top of my raises, because i'm not going to go away nearly as often as they would like.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't matter that our 4bet folds out hands we dominate. Compared to calling and c/f'ing any flop, it's more profitable because with that line we end up FOLDING to hands we beat or are coinflips with. I'd rather fold them out than have them fold me out.


[/ QUOTE ]
like i mentioned above, perhaps c/f'ing any flop is wrong and if we're going to 4-bet/call a push w/ AK in this situation, I'd rather just crai any flop which has amazing FE for hands like TT/JJ against a solid tag even if the board comes all low cards. If you say that a tag is never folding TT/JJ in that spot, then you cannot say they will ever fold a hand like AQ/AJ on an A-high flop.

[ QUOTE ]
As for the range...just because OP gives a range doesn't mean he's correct, and doesn't mean we have to go with it. A major aspect of figuring these situations out is putting people on accurate ranges, and TT+ AJ+ is NOT an accurate range in this spot imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fine, but we weren't at the table, and considering this is a respected poster, I have to assume his range is somewhat correct.

[traz]

wslee,

JJ/TT will fold more often if you 4bet preflop. Any "FE" you're talking about will be higher preflop rather than on the flop.

[monkover]

[censored] guys thanks a lot for this thread...
i´m [censored] up here way too often!
having read this thread a 4bet def is good.