Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[Temp Hutter]

What does the BB think the hero raised with pre-flop? He has to think that the flop missed hero completely so his raise could be a bluff. I would raise it back to T800 right here to see how strong the BB's hand is. If BB calls or raises then I have to decide if I want to go broke with this hand - and I think I do.

[A_PLUS]

I havent read through yet, but I am expecting some doomsday hand ranges for the BB here. Before we start to get too concerned about our hand, realize that this a a very good bluff spot for the BB. In fact, it is one I will use as often as I can.

Call a LP raise from BB, check-raise a rag flop. His bet size does worry me though. I will make a smallish bet against particular opponents (to represent real strength), and lead for the pot on most turns.

Anyway, not saying villan is bluffing, just saying not to rule it out.

The problem with this hand now, is that even if we are ahead, it isnt by very far. Against a reasonable non-bluff range of: AA-22, A9, A7, A5, T8h, 97, 95, 86, 75, K9o, Q9o, T8o, AXh, KXh, JTh+, Q8h+, 87h.

we are apx 60% right now with very little indication of what the scare cards are.

If we were later in the tournament, and shallower, I would jam here, but as it is I am calling and reevaluating on the turn.

[kuro]

When you get check-raised light you're looking at either a very strong hand that is trying to get you to come over the top with a big pair, a weak hand that is trying to figure out if you have a big pair or overcards they can push you off of on turn/river, or a draw that is hoping to get you to check behind on the turn.

So the best line is generally to just call the check-raise beause you lose the least amount of money from the hands that have you in bad shape like top two pair, a set, or really strong combo draws and you may induce bluffs on later streets from hands that you have beat. 3-betting here drives out the hands that you have beat and if villain jams you're in a really bad spot with half your stack invested.

On the turn, I'm planning to check behind, call small-medium sized bets for most cards. If it's a really bad card like a 9 or 6h/8h I'm likely folding to a bet. I'm not going to bet the turn if I think it's a blank and it's checked to me, because I'd absolutely hate a semi-bluff check-raise there and I want to give villain a chance to value bet the river if he's got a one pair type hand or bluff with a missed draw that thinks I'm weak. I want to keep the pot small so it's harder for villain to bluff me off the best hand.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
No one min raises and expects you to fold. He very clearly expects a call here, so what does that mean?


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. A good player, playing against another good player, doesn't expect a fold when he min-raises, given the odds that he's provided.

But, this could easily be a "donk" who is min-raising with a draw or bluff or top pair with a draw.

There are plenty of players who min-raise and think they can take down the pot, because they "raised". They don't grasp pot-odds or anything.

My brother-in-law was getting upset at me when I was down to 150 chips with blinds at 10/20 and I was pushing all-in if I played. He didn't understand that I couldn't just make a standard raise, since it would commit me to the pot anyway.

I think you're trying to apply your own knowledge of the game as if others might think along those lines as well. I know I've made that mistake, to my detriment, before.

I've seen so many players push all-in for 2300 chips when blinds are 15/30 with pocket Jacks in position to make me realize that 95% of the poker playing population just doesn't "get it". [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

The hands that make most sense here are fat overpairs, namely KK and AA.

Does this really make sense? Villian has chosen not to raise PF with these hands, but instead flat call and hope you bet the flop so he can chk/rz you? An overpair is possible, but isn't 88-JJ far more likely? You bet 140, he raised 160 to 300. When he raised to 300, the pot-o-meter on Stars showed 280. In one way of thinking, he just bet pot. The other way of thinking is that he min-raised you. He didn't though. He didn't click the auto-button raise, he carefully thought out and typed in 300. This isn't a min-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think you are much more likely to see a smooth call PF with AA-KK than 88-JJ, like 5x as likely. Middle pairs and AK are the most aggressively bet hands in online poker, while AA-QQ are played much more passively.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
What does the BB think the hero raised with pre-flop? He has to think that the flop missed hero completely so his raise could be a bluff. I would raise it back to T800 right here to see how strong the BB's hand is. If BB calls or raises then I have to decide if I want to go broke with this hand - and I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the problem w/ this line is that you do pretty much price yourself in to go to the felt w/ this hand if you raise to t800. You also let him off a good portion of the range of hands that you are beating badly (overcards). We have position, why not use it. I understand that allowing him to draw (if he's on some draw) cheaply isn't ideal, but neither is going to the felt w/ bottom two.

The only time that he will be willing to get all in w/ us on the flop is when:
A) he has a combo draw (flush + straight, flush + overcards, pair + gutshot, pair + flush draw). All these hands are not all that far behind us (except the flush/overcards)
B) when he can beat what he likely puts us on (an overpair). The problem w/ this is that bottom two is no good against someone who can beat an overpair. Unless he has exactly AA, anything that can beat all overpairs can beat our bottom 2. So, even though our hand is 'hidden' in that he surely doesn't put us on 75s, our hand is really only slightly better than AA (which is completely in the range that he has us) so if he's getting to the felt w/ us, he either already can beat AA or has some decent equity vs. it.

I like to call here and raise any decent sized bet on the turn blank (probably all in). This widens the range of hands that we will be able to get all in against.

[ghato]

I dont like the pot size bet from Hero with position. A bet of around 90-100 keeps the pot size more manageable and keeps the hand better disguised.

Also it makes the bet seem vulnerable because of the texture of the board, as it would tell me that hero has a good hand but is nervous about it. If I were the BB I would put hero on overpairs 10s+, with some possibility of a set or lower pp. So for the BB to raise in this spot I think he needs to have at least an overpair beat or a huge draw that he is willing to go after. The amount he bet seems like he is enticing a big reraise so I will do the opposite.

I'm calling the bet and seeing what develops on the turn. I expect a pot sized bet from him on the turn, and my action will depend on what card falls and how courageous im feeling. Seeing as he is the only stack at the table that covers us I dont expect alot of courage.

[Jeppi]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, there is a slim chance that he'd repush over with A7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. But we don't exactly have this hand crushed. We are beating it, but we aren't crushing it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: 7d 9h 5h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.8081 % 44.95% 00.86% { 7s5s }
Hand 2: 54.1919 % 53.33% 00.86% { Ah7h }

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does the BB think the hero raised with pre-flop? He has to think that the flop missed hero completely so his raise could be a bluff. I would raise it back to T800 right here to see how strong the BB's hand is. If BB calls or raises then I have to decide if I want to go broke with this hand - and I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the problem w/ this line is that you do pretty much price yourself in to go to the felt w/ this hand if you raise to t800. You also let him off a good portion of the range of hands that you are beating badly (overcards). We have position, why not use it. I understand that allowing him to draw (if he's on some draw) cheaply isn't ideal, but neither is going to the felt w/ bottom two.

The only time that he will be willing to get all in w/ us on the flop is when:
A) he has a combo draw (flush + straight, flush + overcards, pair + gutshot, pair + flush draw). All these hands are not all that far behind us (except the flush/overcards)
B) when he can beat what he likely puts us on (an overpair). The problem w/ this is that bottom two is no good against someone who can beat an overpair. Unless he has exactly AA, anything that can beat all overpairs can beat our bottom 2. So, even though our hand is 'hidden' in that he surely doesn't put us on 75s, our hand is really only slightly better than AA (which is completely in the range that he has us) so if he's getting to the felt w/ us, he either already can beat AA or has some decent equity vs. it.

I like to call here and raise any decent sized bet on the turn blank (probably all in). This widens the range of hands that we will be able to get all in against.

[/ QUOTE ]


I understand everything you post here, in fact I wrote most of it in my post.


Here is the problem I see with calling. The pot will be roughly 760 on the turn. So when our opponent bets into us on the turn (and I do believe he will). He'll put in...say 500.

And we do what exactly?

Good turn
-Raise a substantial amount.

-we get an extra 500 out of a hand like 89.
-we may go to the felt with against a 2-way draw. So we risk busting, but we do have an edge.
-we bust against any hand that beats us

Bad Turn
-Fold?
-Call?, what about a river bet?
-A very very crappy spot here.


I don't think we should worry about raising into a set or a made straight. What are you going to do. You flopped a good hand when your opponent flopped a better hand. It happens. If we raise we might surive the hand if we are behind now (on the flop)

I don't think squeezing out another couple hundred chips out of a 9 or a draw not getting quite the odds they need warrents letting the turn come cheaply. There are 24 cards that will be uncomfortable to see on the turn, maybe more (any 9, any 6, any 8, any T, any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

24!!! Now your opponent won't be able to use all 24, but you won't know which card he's looking for.

[locutus2002]

Hero raises to T900.

Hero is ahead of villain's range.
Hero's hand is well disguised. I'd be shocked if villain would lay down a big pair here.
Hero's hand is still fragile and hero needs to protect his stack.
Hands with a 9 are more likely to miniraise.
Hero should continue to build his image with raises.

The pot has T1370, hero has ~T1800 behind.

villain gets 2.2:1 in the pot and implied odds of ~5:1 to see the turn.

Villain's range of hands:

~30 pairs overs Hero is 80%
~48 (24/24 hands) quality 9's 1/2 of them have gutshots ; Hero is 75%/60%
~50 (32/18 hands) flush draws 1/3 of them have gutshots; Hero is 66%/60%
~18 ways villain is ahead (2pr++) Villain ~100%

The pairs:

Villain is probably not folding an overpair, especially AA-QQ. He should consider killing himself for playing them like this BTF and folding on this board.

Villain is probably not miniraising with 66,88, and will not commit another chip with them unless he hits his hand.


The gutshots:

villain is about 40% in the hand with either of the gutshots (9 or flush draw). Villain may push these quality drawing hands because he thinks he has FE. There is already enough overlay in the pot to at least justify villain's call. Villain can make this call with ~8 outs if hero pays him off all the time.

Villain is ahead 18 hands.
Hero loses all his chips almost 100% of the time with my line in these circumstances.

I think villain calls/pushes with ~90 hands, folding the worst 55 hands to the raise.

The plan:

If villain pushes, hero calls.
If villain calls then here are my crude calculations:

Hero is ahead 55% in the hand before the turn.
Hero is behind 40% in the hand after a heart on the turn
Hero is behind 40% in the hand after a 6 or 8 on the turn
Hero is behind 30% in the hand after a 6 or 8 of hearts.
Hero is ahead 65% in the hand after a blank.

I'm pushing a blank, and check/calling everything else.

I have excluded a flopped str8 from villain's range. If you include the flopped str8 which is certainly a possibility (16 hands) then hero is always behind and should not reraise the flop or bet any turn/river short of a 7/5.